NCAA Seeding.

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TNBV

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#1
So assuming we are a 3 seed, for discussion can anyone make the argument for Kansas, Wisconsin and Duke over us?
Kansas 25-6, Split with Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor, winning all at home. 18 point loss at home to Kentucky. Lost to unranked TCU and Dayton. Top 10 wins-Baylor at home
Wisconsin 24-6 Losses to currently unranked Michigan St, Rutgers, Nebraska and Ohio St. Swept current #9 Purdue, beat Houston (only wins over current top 25)
Duke 26-5, 2 wins vs current top 25, both in first month of season including opening day vs Kentucky, + Gonzaga. Loses to unranked Virginia, Fla St, Miami and Ohio St.
 
#2
#2
Being a 1-4 seed is what matters. Duke with coach K retiring was getting a top seed even if they were 22-9 they would still be a top 5 seed just because. The rest, who cares, I would think if this team stays focused they could be an elite 8 and maybe, just maybe a final 4 team if the cards fall our way. If this team gets put out before the sweet 16 then this will be a disappointing year for me.
 
#3
#3
TNBV said:
So assuming we are a 3 seed, for discussion can anyone make the argument for Kansas, Wisconsin and Duke over us?
Kansas 25-6, Split with Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor, winning all at home. 18 point loss at home to Kentucky. Lost to unranked TCU and Dayton. Top 10 wins-Baylor at home
Wisconsin 24-6 Losses to currently unranked Michigan St, Rutgers, Nebraska and Ohio St. Swept current #9 Purdue, beat Houston (only wins over current top 25)
Duke 26-5, 2 wins vs current top 25, both in first month of season including opening day vs Kentucky, + Gonzaga. Loses to unranked Virginia, Fla St, Miami and Ohio St.
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The argument for Kansas: They are 25-6 against the #2 strength of schedule. Like us, they've played 15 Q1 games, only they're 10-5 while we're 8-7. They have a better NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, and Sagarin.

The argument for Duke: Though they haven't had as many Q1 opportunities as us, given the weak ACC, they are 5-1 in those games. They have better KenPom and Sagarin ranks. They have 2 neutral court wins over top 5 teams, including the #1 team in the country.

The argument for Wisconsin: Very strong metrics in KPI and SOR. 8-3 record against Q1 teams. They have several better road wins than our best road win. They have 2 better neutral court wins than our best neutral court win.
 
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#4
#4
How can you give the SEC - Two #2s, a #3, #4, #5, and #6 yet no other teams, no 7-12s. The SEC has a strong argument as the best conference this year, yet possibly only 6 teams getting in, while the B10 has 8, Big East has 7 and the Big12 also has 6.

I also feel like in a league where two of the conferences 9-9 teams are in as a #5 and #6 (Alabama and LSU) yet you have 3 other teams at 9-9 (Florida, A&M, South Carolina) it's ridiculous none of those teams are seeing a bid.
 
#5
#5
wtmvol said:
The argument for Kansas: They are 25-6 against the #2 strength of schedule. Like us, they've played 15 Q1 games, only they're 10-5 while we're 8-7. They have a better NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, and Sagarin.

The argument for Duke: Though they haven't had as many Q1 opportunities as us, given the weak ACC, they are 5-1 in those games. They have better KenPom and Sagarin ranks. They have 2 neutral court wins over top 5 teams, including the #1 team in the country.

The argument for Wisconsin: Very strong metrics in KPI and SOR. 8-3 record against Q1 teams. They have several better road wins than our best road win. They have 2 better neutral court wins than our best neutral court win.
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Good points
I would counter that Kansas lost to Dayton at a neutral site and their best road win is at maybe West Virginia.
Duke still does not have a decent win since Gonzaga in November and got beat handily at home by a UNC team we beat handily at a neutral site
Wisconsin may have better neutral site wins and even road wins but they also lost 4 home games, 3 to unranked teams. 4-2 against Q3 teams with an added Q2 loss.
 
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#6
#6
TNBV said:
Good points
I would counter that Kansas lost to Dayton at a neutral site and their best road win is at maybe West Virginia.
Duke still does not have a decent win since Gonzaga in November and got beat handily at home by a UNC team we beat handily at a neutral site
Wisconsin may have better neutral site wins and even road wins but they also lost 4 home games, 3 to unranked teams. 4-2 against Q3 teams with an added Q2 loss.
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Sea Ray said:
How can you give the SEC - Two #2s, a #3, #4, #5, and #6 yet no other teams, no 7-12s. The SEC has a strong argument as the best conference this year, yet possibly only 6 teams getting in, while the B10 has 8, Big East has 7 and the Big12 also has 6.

I also feel like in a league where two of the conferences 9-9 teams are in as a #5 and #6 (Alabama and LSU) yet you have 3 other teams at 9-9 (Florida, A&M, South Carolina) it's ridiculous none of those teams are seeing a bid.
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Sagarin top 40 is usually a reasonable look at who deserves to be in/out. We have six teams in the top 40. The B10 has eight. Florida is at 41 with a chance to play in through the tournament. The current matrix split of conferences doesn’t seem disproportionate.
 
#7
#7
TNBV said:
Good points
I would counter that Kansas lost to Dayton at a neutral site and their best road win is at maybe West Virginia.
Duke still does not have a decent win since Gonzaga in November and got beat handily at home by a UNC team we beat handily at a neutral site
Wisconsin may have better neutral site wins and even road wins but they also lost 4 home games, 3 to unranked teams. 4-2 against Q3 teams with an added Q2 loss.
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I don't think we have much of a case over Kansas. They have away wins at KenPom 37, 38, and 39 (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Iowa St). Our best away win is at #49 Mississippi St. Plus all the other things I said above.

You could make a case for us over Duke, and we'll have the opportunity to do more in Tampa. But if they win the ACC Tournament, and we lose in the semis, I just don't see the committee putting us ahead of them. They had them in front of us on Feb 19, and yeah their lone loss is worse than our lone loss since then, but is that enough for us to jump them? Probably not at this point.

You could, and probably should, absolutely put us ahead of Wisconsin. Now that most of the bracket matrix brackets have updated, the top ranked guys on there generally have us above Wisconsin.
 
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#8
#8
wtmvol said:
I don't think we have much of a case over Kansas. They have away wins at KenPom 37, 38, and 39 (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Iowa St). Our best away win is at #49 Mississippi St. Plus all the other things I said above.

You could make a case for us over Duke, and we'll have the opportunity to do more in Tampa. But if they win the ACC Tournament, and we lose in the semis, I just don't see the committee putting us ahead of them. They had them in front of us on Feb 19, and yeah their lone loss is worse than our lone loss since then, but is that enough for us to jump them? Probably not at this point.

You could, and probably should, absolutely put us ahead of Wisconsin. Now that most of the bracket matrix brackets have updated, the top ranked guys on there generally have us above Wisconsin.
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That’s a single variable data analysis. I don’t disagree with the notion that it’s hard to replace Kansas, there are many remaining inputs for every top 12 team. I’d like to note that while the committee claims to have “moved on” from the eye test, I’ll believe it when i see it. They love a good story. Interestingly, interviewed committee members have all said “nothing outweighs how a team is playing at tournament time.” If we have a do well/win it all SEC tournament, we’ll have a recent record that will truly stand out.
 
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#9
Stoerner Fumbles said:
That’s a single variable data analysis. I don’t disagree with the notion that it’s hard to replace Kansas, there are many remaining inputs for every top 12 team. I’d like to note that while the committee claims to have “moved on” from the eye test, I’ll believe it when i see it. They love a good story. Interestingly, interviewed committee members have all said “nothing outweighs how a team is playing at tournament time.” If we have a do well/win it all SEC tournament, we’ll have a recent record that will truly stand out.
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I was just responding to the poster's comment about Kansas's best road win when I said that. In my 1st post above, I laid out the case for why Kansas is above us, and unless something drastic happens, will stay above us:

"The argument for Kansas: They are 25-6 against the #2 strength of schedule. Like us, they've played 15 Q1 games, only they're 10-5 while we're 8-7. They have a better NET, KPI, SOR, KenPom, and Sagarin."
 
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#10
#10
Sea Ray said:
How can you give the SEC - Two #2s, a #3, #4, #5, and #6 yet no other teams, no 7-12s. The SEC has a strong argument as the best conference this year, yet possibly only 6 teams getting in, while the B10 has 8, Big East has 7 and the Big12 also has 6.

I also feel like in a league where two of the conferences 9-9 teams are in as a #5 and #6 (Alabama and LSU) yet you have 3 other teams at 9-9 (Florida, A&M, South Carolina) it's ridiculous none of those teams are seeing a bid.
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Florida's nonconfernece SOS was 221 (78th overall SOS), A&M was 262 (96th overall SOS). Alabama is #1 in overall SOS and LSU is #11. Florida and A&M did it to themselves with their miserable attempt at scheduling. Plus, they have some really bad nonconference losses too which LSU and Bama don't have.
 
#11
#11
BigOrangeMojo said:
Florida's nonconfernece SOS was 221 (78th overall SOS), A&M was 262 (96th overall SOS). Alabama is #1 in overall SOS and LSU is #11. Florida and A&M did it to themselves with their miserable attempt at scheduling. Plus, they have some really bad nonconference losses too which LSU and Bama don't have.
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Outside the top 6 SEC, none of them are any good. We have a very strong top tier in the conference that drops of to mediocrity right fast.
 
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#12
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Sagarin top 40 is usually a reasonable look at who deserves to be in/out. We have six teams in the top 40. The B10 has eight. Florida is at 41 with a chance to play in through the tournament. The current matrix split of conferences doesn’t seem disproportionate.
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And year in year out, all those 8-9 Big 10 teams that get into the dance through all those biases will disappoint 😂
 
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#18
#18
Sea Ray said:
How can you give the SEC - Two #2s, a #3, #4, #5, and #6 yet no other teams, no 7-12s. The SEC has a strong argument as the best conference this year, yet possibly only 6 teams getting in, while the B10 has 8, Big East has 7 and the Big12 also has 6.

I also feel like in a league where two of the conferences 9-9 teams are in as a #5 and #6 (Alabama and LSU) yet you have 3 other teams at 9-9 (Florida, A&M, South Carolina) it's ridiculous none of those teams are seeing a bid.
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How do you know they aren't seeing a bid? Most experts have these teams on the wrong side of the bubble but the only experts that matter are the committee themselves.
 
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