'26 NC EDGE Andrew Rogers (Virginia Tech commit)

[RandomUTfan]

Yeah, at this point just trust the coaches. Nobody thought Jesse Perry or Ty Redmond would be as good as they are simply because they have a 3 star next to their name. In fact I saw a lot of Vols fans complaining about them being signed. It's ridiculous to have more faith in 247 and rivals than a coaching staff who won 30 games in 3 years while dealing with probation and severe recruiting restrictions.

There are certain positions where these amateur evaluators fall in love with measurables. It's becoming the case at QB now too but it's always been the case at OL. The guys who are big and strong already get the most attention and highest ratings. But most pro OL did not start as 4 or 5 stars.

 

[LouderVol]

Yeah, at this point just trust the coaches. Nobody thought Jesse Perry or Ty Redmond would be as good as they are simply because they have a 3 star next to their name. In fact I saw a lot of Vols fans complaining about them being signed. It's ridiculous to have more faith in 247 and rivals than a coaching staff who won 30 games in 3 years while dealing with probation and severe recruiting restrictions.

I see it a lot like preseason polls.

its fun to point to.
some people put way too much faith in it.
no one really knows anything.
just because one is ranked somewhere doesn't mean that is where they should be.
the people making the list are biased.
its a game with an oddly shaped ball, even if you are "better" doesn't guarantee a win.
sure the poll gets it mostly correctly when you look at everything as a whole, but you can't ignore the misses or trust to individual results based on the poll.

 

[RandomUTfan]

I see it a lot like preseason polls.

its fun to point to.
some people put way too much faith in it.
no one really knows anything.
just because one is ranked somewhere doesn't mean that is where they should be.
the people making the list are biased.
its a game with an oddly shaped ball, even if you are "better" doesn't guarantee a win.
sure the poll gets it mostly correctly when you look at everything as a whole, but you can't ignore the misses or trust to individual results based on the poll.

Those are all good points, I'd add, and I've been trying to stress to people, that recruiting rankings are only one part of it now and a big part of it is the portal which they just as bad at predicting success as in recruiting.

There's no good measure really out there that attempts to rank teams in terms of their current roster construction. They aren't even trying to do that.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Yeah, at this point just trust the coaches. Nobody thought Jesse Perry or Ty Redmond would be as good as they are simply because they have a 3 star next to their name. In fact I saw a lot of Vols fans complaining about them being signed. It's ridiculous to have more faith in 247 and rivals than a coaching staff who won 30 games in 3 years while dealing with probation and severe recruiting restrictions.

A little louder for the Star gazers in the back.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

A little louder for the Star gazers in the back.

We're all star gazers. Some are in denial.

It's why we all get so excited when guys like Tristen Keys, David Sanders, Fazion Brandon etc jump in the boat. And it isn't because we're all experts breaking down film.

Preferring a class full of primarily blue chip talent with some three stars strewn in is a lot more desirable than the opposite.

 

[SSVol]

We're all star gazers. Some are in denial.

It's why we all get so excited when guys like Tristen Keys, David Sanders, Fazion Brandon etc jump in the boat. And it isn't because we're all experts breaking down film.

Preferring a class full of primarily blue chip talent with some three stars strewn in is a lot more desirable than the opposite.

David Sanders hasn't played a down. And then there is Nico.

Stars are nice. They are a solid data point. But it's silly to constantly second guess a staff that has proven themselves.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

David Sanders hasn't played a down. And then there is Nico.

Stars are nice. They are a solid data point. But it's silly to constantly second guess a staff that has proven themselves.

You’re right. Good point. It’s literally week four of his true freshman year and he can’t shake nerve damage. I don’t see how he can be classified as anything but a bust. Right?

Stop reaching. My point stands.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Yeah, at this point just trust the coaches. Nobody thought Jesse Perry or Ty Redmond would be as good as they are simply because they have a 3 star next to their name. In fact I saw a lot of Vols fans complaining about them being signed. It's ridiculous to have more faith in 247 and rivals than a coaching staff who won 30 games in 3 years while dealing with probation and severe recruiting restrictions.

The data clearly favors sites like 247. The teams with the highest rated recruiting classes win the most. It’s not really debatable. Yea trust thr coaches bit of you don’t think our staff would love to have a class loaded with 5*s and be either #1 or 2 in the class rankings then you need help.

 

[Jackcrevol]

We're all star gazers. Some are in denial.

It's why we all get so excited when guys like Tristen Keys, David Sanders, Fazion Brandon etc jump in the boat. And it isn't because we're all experts breaking down film.

Preferring a class full of primarily blue chip talent with some three stars strewn in is a lot more desirable than the opposite.

I think there is a happy medium. Most lay football fans can see the talent of TK and FB jump off the page. At this point wouldnt matter to me if either is a 4 or 5. They are really really good.

 

[Heupel's Offseason Beard]

We're all star gazers. Some are in denial.

It's why we all get so excited when guys like Tristen Keys, David Sanders, Fazion Brandon etc jump in the boat. And it isn't because we're all experts breaking down film.

Preferring a class full of primarily blue chip talent with some three stars strewn in is a lot more desirable than the opposite.

Personally, that's not it at all. I get excited for every commit because of the idea that this kid chose our team over every other school in the country... and that fills me with pride.

Then I watch as much film on the kid as I can and form my own opinions on them. The guy that got me the most excited last class was Antoni Ogumoro because he plays extremely violent and his video was like 50 clips of him just murdering guys. Not surprisingly, the players who are ranked highest usually have eye popping highlight films. I got excited for Tristan Keys because his entire film is him making plays that very very few people can make. Not because of the number next to his name.

All I'm saying is that our coaches have proven time and time again that they can turn sh!t into stew, and I'm sick of this circle of doubt every offseason because of the perception that being ranked higher than Florida on On3 is so much more important to success than our own coaches evaluations. Especially since our coaches place such an emphasis on work ethic and culture/ locker room fit.

Reminder that Tennessee won 3 games in 2020. Then lost the 38 best players on that team. And then won 11 games, 18 months later. They know what they're doing. Every kid that signs here has qualities that matter to our coaching staff. So if they want them, I want them.

 

[NighthawkVol]

We're all star gazers. Some are in denial.

It's why we all get so excited when guys like Tristen Keys, David Sanders, Fazion Brandon etc jump in the boat. And it isn't because we're all experts breaking down film.

Preferring a class full of primarily blue chip talent with some three stars strewn in is a lot more desirable than the opposite.

That’s fair. And while I understand folks getting excited about the highly rated recruits, the thing that drives me nuts are the folks who get down on the staff over 3* recruits, as if they can’t be good.

I can think of one 5* recruit I knew wouldn’t be good…Drew Richmond. No one is paying me to evaluate talent, but when I saw that kid in high school, I thought there’s no way that’s a 5*.

 

[NighthawkVol]

The data clearly favors sites like 247. The teams with the highest rated recruiting classes win the most. It’s not really debatable. Yea trust thr coaches bit of you don’t think our staff would love to have a class loaded with 5*s and be either #1 or 2 in the class rankings then you need help.

Individual evaluations and aggregate rankings aren’t analogous.

What coaches would really love to have is a class full of recruits who become the best players in college football over the next 3-4 years. Some of them would be 5*s. Many would be 3*s. Some, like Cam Ward, would be 0*s.

 

[LaagerVol]

Are we trying to take this guy and Quinn, or just one of them?

 

[LittleVol]

Yeah, at this point just trust the coaches. Nobody thought Jesse Perry or Ty Redmond would be as good as they are simply because they have a 3 star next to their name. In fact I saw a lot of Vols fans complaining about them being signed. It's ridiculous to have more faith in 247 and rivals than a coaching staff who won 30 games in 3 years while dealing with probation and severe recruiting restrictions.

I did.

But I thought Redmond would play safety not CB

 

[BbwVol]

Are we trying to take this guy and Quinn, or just one of them?

Sounds like Quinn had a spot no matter what.

 

[benholt06]

Are we trying to take this guy and Quinn, or just one of them?

There’s a lot of attention around Rogers if he’s not a take. Seems like maybe we want both. Even if there’s a numbers crunch I’d think they’d make room for Rogers and Quinn.

 

[SSVol]

You’re right. Good point. It’s literally week four of his true freshman year and he can’t shake nerve damage. I don’t see how he can be classified as anything but a bust. Right?

Stop reaching. My point stands.

Didn't say he was bust. He hasn't proven anything though, and yes, I think we can safely say that our can't miss QB is a bust. Meanwhile the 3* QB guy nobody wanted is on the Heisman watch list, and the 3* OL nobody wanted is killing it. So no, I'm not in denial when I say that I'm content with the guys the staff recruits, even if they aren't highly ranked.

 

[INDEFENSE]

Missing the point people, the stars become a self fulfilling prophecy. When a player goes to a highly rated team that player has a far better chance to see his ranking increase. I don't know how else to say it, these guys doing the ranking are more dependent on the teams that are recruiting them and the team they commit to than their ability to spot talent. NFL scouts miss on players in the draft all the time but somehow we have these gifted people giving rankings to high school players, really, that's the argument we are going with? What about Nico? These rankings are less effective than the NFL scouts and GM's and they miss a lot. In the end they give nothing more than a general idea, more importantly they hook people into subscribing for the info, you want to know how to do it yourself. Look at the teams that develop the talent they get then factor in how well the teams do, when you add both together you have identified teams that can identify talent and develop it. They are evaluating the teams involved far more than the player. If it makes you feel good, live and die by their rankings,for the rest of us take them as a general idea of what the player could become. Our coaches have proven themselves able to identify a player that fits what they want to do, for the biggest part minus a position or two they have proven to develop those players, believe in coaching when it has proven itself over time. How many times have we been hot after a 3 star their junior year only to see that player become a hot commodity and a high 4 star 6 months or so later? Where were the recruiting sites originally? I don't understand why this is something that's that hard to understand, the proof is there year after year. Quit being lazy and just looking at the rankings in the end, you'll miss the process.

 

[Adam Sandler]

On flip watch I would presume.

That is generally what a fong bomb entails

 

[NighthawkVol]

Missing the point people, the stars become a self fulfilling prophecy. When a player goes to a highly rated team that player has a far better chance to see his ranking increase. I don't know how else to say it, these guys doing the ranking are more dependent on the teams that are recruiting them and the team they commit to than their ability to spot talent. NFL scouts miss on players in the draft all the time but somehow we have these gifted people giving rankings to high school players, really, that's the argument we are going with? What about Nico? These rankings are less effective than the NFL scouts and GM's and they miss a lot. In the end they give nothing more than a general idea, more importantly they hook people into subscribing for the info, you want to know how to do it yourself. Look at the teams that develop the talent they get then factor in how well the teams do, when you add both together you have identified teams that can identify talent and develop it. They are evaluating the teams involved far more than the player. If it makes you feel good, live and die by their rankings,for the rest of us take them as a general idea of what the player could become. Our coaches have proven themselves able to identify a player that fits what they want to do, for the biggest part minus a position or two they have proven to develop those players, believe in coaching when it has proven itself over time. How many times have we been hot after a 3 star their junior year only to see that player become a hot commodity and a high 4 star 6 months or so later? Where were the recruiting sites originally? I don't understand why this is something that's that hard to understand, the proof is there year after year. Quit being lazy and just looking at the rankings in the end, you'll miss the process.

This is accurate. And your last point is salient: if recruiting analysts are so good, tell us how good a player is BEFORE his recruitment blows up. The fact that they have to adjust their rankings so many times (especially after a kid starts getting certain offers or commits to a certain school) is dispositive proof that these rankings are reactionary, not analytical.

 

[LouderVol]

The data clearly favors sites like 247. The teams with the highest rated recruiting classes win the most. It’s not really debatable. Yea trust thr coaches bit of you don’t think our staff would love to have a class loaded with 5*s and be either #1 or 2 in the class rankings then you need help.

it kinda is. unless you take a Sex Panther view of things.

Going back to 2015, only twice has the most talented team won the championship.

Out of the 50 possible top 5 most talented teams over the last 10 years, only 26 have ended up in the Top 10 at the end of the season. which means at best having the most talent only works 52% of the time. only 18 of the top 5 have ended in the top 5, 36%.

and there are some schools that just always underperform, regardless of how much talent they have.

Bama has won twice as #1, twice @ #2, and underperformed their ranking by double digits twice.
Georgia has won twice, never as the most talented, and underperformed their ranking by double digits twice.
Ohio State has won once, not as the most talented, and underperformed their ranking by double digits once.
it starts getting ugly after that.
LSU is the only other top 5 to win it, but they have finished outside the top 25 twice as a Top 5 talent.
7 Other schools have been top 5 talents, only 1 of them, once, has finished in the Top 5. out of 18 times.

it goes beyond the time frame I looked at, but when Clemson won, they were outside the Top 10 both times.

your "not really debatable" is a coin flip.

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

There’s a lot of attention around Rogers if he’s not a take. Seems like maybe we want both. Even if there’s a numbers crunch I’d think they’d make room for Rogers and Quinn.

Seems plausible that taking both MIGHT generate another exit in the portal in that room. Self healing problem. Bet all position groups have guys considering their best option from staying or going and some level of awareness exists. Don’t have to nudge them out.

 

[jvols1999]

Seems plausible that taking both MIGHT generate another exit in the portal in that room. Self healing problem. Bet all position groups have guys considering their best option from staying or going and some level of awareness exists. Don’t have to nudge them out.

Frankly there are some dudes who pretty clearly aren't going to play here. Gentle and Lindstrom and Schell have all been passed by multiple guys who are younger than they all are and none of those three have made any sort of move to get into a rotation that clearly needs help. If those dudes choose to move on to places where they can play it's likely a win-win for all involved.

 

[VolOld]

Didn't say he was bust. He hasn't proven anything though, and yes, I think we can safely say that our can't miss QB is a bust. Meanwhile the 3* QB guy nobody wanted is on the Heisman watch list, and the 3* OL nobody wanted is killing it. So no, I'm not in denial when I say that I'm content with the guys the staff recruits, even if they aren't highly ranked.

So let me get this straight. Nico is proof that that the star system is flawed and you're content with the guys the staff recruits because they proved their ability to evaluate recruits when they recruited .... the can't miss QB Nico?

 

[RandomUTfan]

There’s a lot of attention around Rogers if he’s not a take. Seems like maybe we want both. Even if there’s a numbers crunch I’d think they’d make room for Rogers and Quinn.

Pretty sure we would take both. As has been mentioned they don't even project to the same position.