My take on the score...about right

#26
#26
Makes no common sense that if you have years of a winning average % of picks that you have not turned it into big $$$ laying bets. You could even bet moderate $$ and then bet only your winnings so you never again dip into home money. Personally in 4 yrs of school I never won a parlay. It was fun to try week in and out.
 
#27
#27
ncvol17 said:
Makes no common sense that if you have years of a winning average % of picks that you have not turned it into big $$$ laying bets. You could even bet moderate $$ and then bet only your winnings so you never again dip into home money. Personally in 4 yrs of school I never won a parlay. It was fun to try week in and out.
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Back when I did it, stats were not as available, and it required HOURS every week to prepare. This was not the only predict I used either.

I was only comfortable betting $50-100 at a time, and by the end of the season I was up $700-800.

It was too much like WORK, so I quit doing it.

It was fun while it lasted though.

Maybe I will try again sometime ...but for the time I put into it, I make more at my day job. :)

Afterthought....the other thing is the JUICE. Just being over 500 is not enough, you have to be like 0.570 and Vegas actually does a very good job with the line in most cases, especially on the NFL side.
 
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#28
#28
BigOrangeLoyalist said:
BanditVol, I understand the point you are trying to make, and that is that we should not be completely shocked by the result of the Missouri game. Being said, although your predictions have been pretty accurate overall, the unpredictability of turnover margin in a game makes it a somewhat flawed system. From what I can tell, each turnover accounts for an average of about 4-5 points gained by the other team.

On the season, UT has 6 fumbles lost, 12 interceptions. On the flip, they have recovered6 fumbles and intercepted the ball 12 times, resulting in a turnover margin of +/- 0, or even. Mind you, 9 of those turnovers that we -gained- came from Austin Peay and WKU, while we only lost 2. In our last 7 games, our turnover margin is 9 gain, 16 lost = -7, meaning we lose the turnover battle each game by an avg. 1 turnover.

Auburn on the other hand has 7 fumbles on the season and 6 interceptions thrown, while recovering 5 fumbles and gaining 10 interceptions, for a turnover margin of +2 on the season. Over the course of 9 games, this means they usually draw about even in the turnover battle, or win that battle by 1 turnover.

Comparing the two teams, Tennessee should lose the turnover battle to Auburn by 1 or 2 turnovers. Auburn will probably have 1, Tennessee will probably have 2-3. Since your original score prediction has Auburn winning by 14, based on the math, Auburn should win by 18-24 points.

Right?
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Absolutely impossible to predict turnovers precisely...but in general, assuming turnovers is even is not a bad assumption, you just can't COUNT on it. Which is another way of saying there is a lot of LUCK in gambling or predicting.

The turnover margin can be meaningful, but mostly in interceptions. My experience is that fumbles are much more random. On the other hand, if a QB thows lots of ints he likely will continue to do so. If an RB is fumble prone, he usually is benched. FWIW....

In terms of the turnover battle between Auburn and Tennessee, I would say +2 on the season so far is almost meaningless. That translates to less than one turnover per game and so I would say that any advantage Auburn has is very slight.

As for my predictive tool...I only used it to spot spreads that were off and the standard I used was 7 points. Rarely was the spread off that much, but when it was usually I got paid on the bet. For bets that I was already 50-50 on, a 3-4 point margin would tip me in the direction of the favorite.

Just talking about this makes me want to bet again...lol.
 
#29
#29
It seems like you're saying, "well I have a random gut feeling Auburn will win by 14, but if Ut turns it over too much then they COULD lose by 28, or if AU turns it over then Ut COULD possibly win or keep it close"

Now you have three wide points if it comes anywhere close to those you're covered and can I say I told you it COULD go this way.
 
#30
#30
BanditVol said:
Afterthought....the other thing is the JUICE. Just being over 500 is not enough, you have to be like 0.570 and Vegas actually does a very good job with the line in most cases, especially on the NFL side.
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Actually, it's when you win more than 53.5% of the time.
 
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