My take on the score...about right

[BanditVol]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

 

[1972 Grad]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

Nice way to justify a horrible pick.

 

[volatil]

Nice way to justify a horrible pick.

:lolabove:

I pick the Vols EVERY week in that thread.

 

[State of the Vols]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

So what does your "almost always accurate" system predict for the Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky games (leaving off the orange blinders)?

 

[SALAMANDER DRAKE]

So what does your "almost always accurate" system predict for the Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky games (leaving off the orange blinders)?

opcorn:

 

[BanditVol]

So what does your "almost always accurate" system predict for the Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky games (leaving off the orange blinders)?

I am in St. Louis getting ready to come home. I will let you know tonight or tomorrow about Auburn.

The system takes all previous games into account, so I don't typically do it until the week of the game.

 

[BanditVol]

Nice way to justify a horrible pick.

What "horrible pick"? I thought we would lose by 13 points and turnover ALMOST ALWAYS skew it by about a score per turnover or actually a bit less than that. turnover margin in this was -3 to Vols, + 3 to Mizz.

I have been doing this for 15 years, and it's been consistent year after year.

It's not PERFECT, every now and then it's off by a large margin when turnovers are even, but that's the exception.

Its been spot on this entire season for the Vols.

 

[qb19]

The system takes all previous games into account, so I don't typically do it until the week of the game.

Bet it's real accurate in weeks 1,2 and 3.

 

[BanditVol]

Bet it's real accurate in weeks 1,2 and 3.

I don't start until week 4

 

[slobberknocker]

Vegas oddsmakers should hire you as a consultant.

 

[ChattanoogaVols]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

So....you started a thread to publicly pat yourself on the back for having some retard system that "accurately" picks the score of every Vols game, as long as you plug it into some reject justification system that adjusts the score due to turnovers AFTER the game?

I have a system for accurately picking the score of a game, after the game as well. I look at the box score. Works every time, 100% of the time.

 

[FullMonte]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

So which hotel/casino in Vegas is yours?

 

[james_govols]

What formula do you use to make picks? Also, lots of games have turnovers so how reliable can your picks really be?

 

[BanditVol]

So....you started a thread to publicly pat yourself on the back for having some retard system that "accurately" picks the score of every Vols game, as long as you plug it into some reject justification system that adjusts the score due to turnovers AFTER the game?

I have a system for accurately picking the score of a game, after the game as well. I look at the box score. Works every time, 100% of the time.

I pick before the game. Is reading comprehension not your strong suit?

I'm not patting myself on the back. I am saying that the margin of victory for Mizzou is understandable given that the turnover ratio was +3 in their favor.

Had it been +3 in our favor, we win.

It's not really that complicated, but I guess to a less than intelligent person it might seem "retarded".

 

[BanditVol]

What formula do you use to make picks? Also, lots of games have turnovers so how reliable can your picks really be?

It's not a formula. It's pretty simple actually. It's the average expectation of the score plus an adjustment for how well each team has done against it's opposition.

 

[BanditVol]

So....you started a thread to publicly pat yourself on the back for having some retard system that "accurately" picks the score of every Vols game, as long as you plug it into some reject justification system that adjusts the score due to turnovers AFTER the game?

I have a system for accurately picking the score of a game, after the game as well. I look at the box score. Works every time, 100% of the time.

Let's be clear about another thing...turnovers lead to scores more often than not...OR deny scores, which definitely affects the outcome of the game.

So it's not an "after the fact" adjustment. I can predict AHEAD OF TIME about what difference a turnover will make.

In our game Saturday, we turned the ball over twice deep in Mizzou territory while they got one deep in our territory. That probably accounted for a 14-17 point swing.

Some turnovers are meaningless, to be sure. Who cares about a hail mary heave turnover at the half or end of the game? Or a meaningless turnover at midfield as time winds down in a game where a team is up 3 TDs....but well over half of turnovers contribute to a difference in the score.

So if the margin predicted is 7 points against the Vols, I would say they need a meaningful turnover to win, and so forth.

Again, it's a very simple system.

And no, I don't own my own casino, but I developed this system in 1998, the one year I bet on sports, and it helped spot spreads that were off in one direction of the other. I won big that year, so.....

 

[Blackburn]

I have a way of predicting the score that is almost always accurate. I have been within a few points on almost all games this year.

In the official score prediction thread, I picked the Vols but also stated that was my "orange blinders" pick.

My prediction said that Missouri at home was 21 points better than us. Although not as reliable, I tried to factor in the loss of Dobbs, and the margin remained 13 even then.

So here's the deal....on the road to Missouri, we "should" lose by a couple TDs. BUT...you say...but we lost by 28.

Yes, because the prediction assumes turnovers are even. Factor in the 3-0 turnover advantage by Missouri....generally turnovers do swing scores one way or the other.

I thought we needed a +2-3 turnover margin to win. Instead it went the other way....thus we "should" lose by 28.

Get back home, cut out the turnovers, it will get better. This just was not our night.

So, you got the score wrong but you always predict it right...sometimes? I just guess at the score and sometimes I'm right too unless we happen to get blown out in which case I'm wrong.

Does the commitment of the Berry Twins factor into the mental preperation of the current team and thusly affect the coefficient of the fortitude denominator or is it a non factor?

Go Vols...let's over analyze this!!!

 

[BanditVol]

So, you got the score wrong but you always predict it right...sometimes? I just guess at the score and sometimes I'm right too unless we happen to get blown out in which case I'm wrong.

Does the commitment of the Berry Twins factor into the mental preperation of the current team and thusly affect the coefficient of the fortitude denominator or is it a non factor?

Go Vols...let's over analyze this!!!

It's a lot simpler than that actually. I'll post actual results AND predict the Auburn game in a bit...maybe tonight though, I have to go to work. At my casino.

 

[BigOrangeLoyalist]

nb4 blackjack dealer.

 

[Fightmaker]

I never predict anything right. And I have no system. My way is easier.

 

[BanditVol]

Results from earlier in the year

SOLA - predicted we would win by 7 and we did, turnover margin EVEN

Uga - predicted uga would win by 3 and they did, tunover margin EVEN (one fumble by us, we blocked punt on them)

USCe - predicted USCe win by 4, we won by 2, turnover margin + 2 to Vols

bammer - predicted we lose by 27, we lost by 34, turnover margin + 2 to bammer

Mizzou, predicted 13 point loss, we lost by 28, turnover margin +3 to Mizzou

And if anyone wants to accuse me of making up my predictions, there are posts recording each and every one, though a few of them are on a different message board. I will actually link them if anyone wants me to.

I am not saying this method is perfect or flawless...far from it. I am just saying it has worked exceptionally well this year so far. Also, I think above I stated that I did not predict the SOLA score, but in fact I did.

 

[BanditVol]

Here is the predict for Auburn.

they should win by 14, including home field advantage, which I always set at 3.

so we will need at least 2-3 turnovers to even it up.

I would not mind being wrong in favor of the Vols at all.

I did not put this post out initially to brag on my system...in fact, I would rather not talk about it at all.

The main point I was trying to make is that we "should" lose to Missouri by about 28 points with a -3 turnover ratio.

 

[BigOrangeLoyalist]

BanditVol, I understand the point you are trying to make, and that is that we should not be completely shocked by the result of the Missouri game. Being said, although your predictions have been pretty accurate overall, the unpredictability of turnover margin in a game makes it a somewhat flawed system. From what I can tell, each turnover accounts for an average of about 4-5 points gained by the other team.

On the season, UT has 6 fumbles lost, 12 interceptions. On the flip, they have recovered6 fumbles and intercepted the ball 12 times, resulting in a turnover margin of +/- 0, or even. Mind you, 9 of those turnovers that we -gained- came from Austin Peay and WKU, while we only lost 2. In our last 7 games, our turnover margin is 9 gain, 16 lost = -7, meaning we lose the turnover battle each game by an avg. 1 turnover.

Auburn on the other hand has 7 fumbles on the season and 6 interceptions thrown, while recovering 5 fumbles and gaining 10 interceptions, for a turnover margin of +2 on the season. Over the course of 9 games, this means they usually draw about even in the turnover battle, or win that battle by 1 turnover.

Comparing the two teams, Tennessee should lose the turnover battle to Auburn by 1 or 2 turnovers. Auburn will probably have 1, Tennessee will probably have 2-3. Since your original score prediction has Auburn winning by 14, based on the math, Auburn should win by 18-24 points.

Right?

 

[slickstirs]

Here is the predict for Auburn.

they should win by 14, including home field advantage, which I always set at 3.

so we will need at least 2-3 turnovers to even it up.

I would not mind being wrong in favor of the Vols at all.

I did not put this post out initially to brag on my system...in fact, I would rather not talk about it at all.

The main point I was trying to make is that we "should" lose to Missouri by about 28 points with a -3 turnover ratio.

so where did you come up with 14 points when vegas says 7.5 point spread? Also how many turn overs do you predict?

 

[JOEY'S ALL VOL !!!]

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