Mercer Round of 32 odds

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golfballs

golfballs

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#1
NCAA Tournament - Mercer Bears' underrated upset odds - ESPN

This is a game our statistical model didn't see coming -- but maybe it should have. And that has implications for Mercer's odds to advance into the Sweet 16 when it meets GK darling Tennessee.

Round of 32 upset odds: It's complicated ... see below.

How they beat the Blue Devils: Let's start with the opponent. Duke had trouble getting stops all season, and the Blue Devils were particularly vulnerable to runs when their own 3-pointers weren't falling and they didn't adjust to working the ball inside. Duke's November game against Vermont, where the Blue Devils surrendered 75.6 percent on 2-point attempts and blew an eight-point halftime lead, offered a blueprint for an upstart opponent (though Duke won that game 91-90), and Mercer followed it perfectly. The Bears survived Duke's bombs and second-chance points today by shooting 62.5 percent (20-32) from inside -- they actually made more field goals than Duke while taking 17 fewer shots.

Uncharacteristically, Duke committed 12 turnovers, hardly ever sent Jabari Parker to the hole, and looked increasingly rattled as the Bears grew more excited toward game's end. But Mercer just didn't make many mistakes. They lost the ball only eight times, shot just enough 3s of their own to keep Duke honest, and stayed aggressive to the end. And so they came through as a sharpshooting Killer from the very weak Atlantic Sun conference. But what does it mean going forward?

Can they do it again? Analysts are talking now about the experience of Mercer's five-senior starting unit, and maybe our model underrated that. Probably more important, Mercer, like Harvard, is somewhat different from successful Giant Killers of the past -- and therefore was relatively hard for us to identify -- because they're better than past Killers on defense. Most high-scoring mid-majors that make the tournament are good at either stopping 2s or 3s (or neither); Mercer is in the top 100 teams in the country at both. And of course, the Bears shoot over 50 percent on their own 2s and nearly 40 percent on their own 3s.

As a result, Mercer fits the profile of a classic Killer more snugly that our model originally gave it credit for. And the Bears have a better chance to upend Tennessee than they had to beat Duke. This 11-14 game is not a Giant versus Killer matchup -- which requires a seed differential of at least five -- so our model isn’t built to evaluate it precisely, but its basic power rankings see chances of at least 15 percent that the game will result in another upset. And with UT advancing, there's a 100 percent chance that game will send a heck of a Killer to the Sweet 16.
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#2
#2
Current KenPom prediction (not including stats vs UMASS) gives us an 80% of winning.

Tennessee - 68
Mercer - 60

I'm going to guess that todays win bumps those odds up slightly in his model.
 
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#5
#5
I think this game will come down to rebounding. We need to dominate the paint.
 
#8
#8
golfballs said:
I think this game will come down to rebounding. We need to dominate the paint.
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Agree. I saw more than once McRae shoot a 3 and instead of crashing the boards for a rebound, the rest of the team just headed for the other end of the court as soon as it left his hand. Unbelievable.
 
#9
#9
Orange Daddy said:
Thunder says

Don't forget that Mercer spanked TN last year in the NIT at the TBA
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This TENNESSEE SQUAD is a hungry angry McNasty giant....that is obviously extremely motivated....last years team was highly disappointed to not make the NCAA tourney....this is going to get good gentlemen....gonna be a slobber knocker this Sunday Bloody Sunday!

Zo's boys are gonna throw a knock out head kick to Mercer's ladies....like old school UFC Pete Williams on Mark Coleman...

tumblr_mz0g64gfJi1ry1rm7o1_400.gif
 
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#10
#10
I don't want to get ahead of ourselves by any means, but this reminds me of how the 2010 tourney shaped up for us. Ohio knocked off a scary Georgetown team in the first round. We beat them and moved onto the sweet 16 in the Midwest region to face a big 10 team, OSU....
 
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#11
#11
fade route said:
Agree. I saw more than once McRae shoot a 3 and instead of crashing the boards for a rebound, the rest of the team just headed for the other end of the court as soon as it left his hand. Unbelievable.
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We faced a team that scores in the 80's. You pick and choose your battles when it come to crashing the boards and when to get back.
 
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#14
#14
fade route said:
There's no excuse for Maymon and Stokes to ever leave the paint when a 3 goes up.
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Again. We faced a team that likes to get out and run. If you want to have a 5 on 3 or 4 on 2 fast break every time down then have at it. There's times you crash the boards and times you go back and get ready on defense. It sounds good that 5 players should crash the boards until you're giving open lay up after open lay up.
 
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#15
#15
golfballs said:
I don't want to get ahead of ourselves by any means, but this reminds me of how the 2010 tourney shaped up for us. Ohio knocked off a scary Georgetown team in the first round. We beat them and moved onto the sweet 16 in the Midwest region to face a big 10 team, OSU....
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And we may well get michigan in this one if we make it. Also, Midwest region both in 2010 and this year.
 
#16
#16
Another 0-7 day from Barton and we won't be going anywhere but back to Knoxville to stay. Horrid shooting by him minus the one big 3 he got that didn't count due to a timeout by the coach.
 
#17
#17
Stay focused defensively and no reason we shouldn't win.

As I've mentioned a few times, we are doing this not torching the nets. If our guys start getting hot from 3, this team becomes really scary.
 
#18
#18
1982Alum said:
Another 0-7 day from Barton and we won't be going anywhere but back to Knoxville to stay. Horrid shooting by him minus the one big 3 he got that didn't count due to a timeout by the coach.
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Why? If we can beat UMass by 19 with a stinker from Barton, we can beat Mercer with the same kind of performance.
 
#19
#19
bleedingTNorange said:
Stay focused defensively and no reason we shouldn't win.

As I've mentioned a few times, we are doing this not torching the nets. If our guys start getting hot from 3, this team becomes really scary.
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Yep, a 20 point win and we were throwing bricks from outside
 
#20
#20
1982Alum said:
Another 0-7 day from Barton and we won't be going anywhere but back to Knoxville to stay. Horrid shooting by him minus the one big 3 he got that didn't count due to a timeout by the coach.
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I keep saying, Barton's due before each game.
Maybe it's this next one.
 
#21
#21
1982Alum said:
Another 0-7 day from Barton and we won't be going anywhere but back to Knoxville to stay. Horrid shooting by him minus the one big 3 he got that didn't count due to a timeout by the coach.
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Barton shoots slight fadeaway threes splitting his legs every time. Needs to just set and shoot instead of jacking it up.
 
#22
#22
The team we watched today can beat anyone. If they keep playing like that the sky is the limit.
 
#23
#23
calban said:
I keep saying, Barton's due before each game.
Maybe it's this next one.
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I'm hoping he holds out one more (now I'm getting greedy). We beat mercer with the same gameplan we've had, and then unleash the Tone to beat down Michigan to get to the elite 8.

Where we get....a rematch with Wichita State.
 
#24
#24
SJAVol32 said:
Again. We faced a team that likes to get out and run. If you want to have a 5 on 3 or 4 on 2 fast break every time down then have at it. There's times you crash the boards and times you go back and get ready on defense. It sounds good that 5 players should crash the boards until you're giving open lay up after open lay up.
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Makes no sense. How can they have a 5 on 3 AND get the offensive rebound. If they have only one guy in the paint to get the rebound while the other 4 go streaking down the court, then it should be an easy put back for Stokes and Maymon if they will stay in the paint.
 
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