March 23rd rankings

[fryeguy93]

I was traveling last week and couldn’t post

All rankings have now been posted.

The RPI and the human rankings are starting to get in line.






* RED are SEC teams
* Blue are OOC teams that Tennessee has played as Virginia Tech and Arizona State are moving up in the rankings.
* Not a lot of movement last week, at least at the top of the polls.
* The PerfectGame rankings seem to be chosen by a room full of monkeys who missed their last dose of Xanax.
* Arizona State leapfrogging so far into that poll based on series win against K-State is a bit of a stretch. The Sun Devils lost 4 consecutive games to SEC teams just a few weeks ago.
* USC at 24-1 is not getting the bias that Arkansas is getting. They are 6-1 against Q1 and undefeated against all others. And every Q1 Win was an away game. Sure, they are Big10 but what's Arkansas's excuse?
* UCLA is only 3-0 against Q1 as they swept the SEC teams in Houston but the Bruins have ugly home losses to UCSD and SD State.
* Auburn is getting love but they are 4-3 against Q1. And all 3 losses were at home and they have a loss to Nebraska
* Tennessee got our first Q4 loss to Missouri. Wright State has dropped to Q3 and is our only Q3 loss. They swept a bad Milwaukee team over weekend at home. Kent remains the only opponent and they are getting close to Q1.
* There's a good chance that Kent (18-4) will lose 2-3 or fewer games the rest of the way. They are sitting at #33 now. Warren Nolan predicts them finishing at 45-7 (3 more losses) and a final RPI of 30. Two of those losses are a one-and-one series against #56 Pitt and the other is to Northern Illinois. It will be hard for them to get to #16.
* Arkansas is again at home this weekend and playing a reeling Florida team. The pollsters will likely move them the Hogs to #1 with a 2-1 weekend.

 

[TheDirector]

I was traveling last week and couldn’t post



I about 2 weeks the RPI will match up far better to rankings.

View attachment 821551




RED are SEC teams
Blue are OOC teams that Tennessee has played as Virginia Tech and Arizona State are moving up in the rankings.

Not a lot of movement last week, at least at the top of the polls.

I'm not sure why Ole Miss got so much love with home wins over Kentucky.

I added a RPI column to the "human polls" to show how they may differ from numbers. Clearly Arkansas and NC State are getting some attention they may not deserve yet. NC State was shelled after an opening win at Florida State and go to Georgia Tech this weekend. Arkansas's schedule as been notoriously soft. Arkansas State (28) is higher RPI than Arkansas with a NC SOS of 189. They have played only 3 Q1 games (at home vs/ Miss State) and went 2-1. and have three Q4 losses and three Q2 losses. And they host a reeling Florida team this weekend.

Weird that Arkansas record is wrong in all 3 polls unless Im missing something(18-7)? Seems Arkansas is not getting penalized for bad losses like other teams. Other teams drop when they have too many bad losses and are forced to work their way back up the rankings. Luckily it will all work out and RPI matters more for post season purposes but it is something that stuck out to me.

 

[fryeguy93]

Weird that Arkansas record is wrong in all 3 polls unless Im missing something(18-7)? Seems Arkansas is not getting penalized for bad losses like other teams. Other teams drop when they have too many bad losses and are forced to work their way back up the rankings. Luckily it will all work out and RPI matters more for post season purposes but it is something that stuck out to me.

I agree, early polls are based on potential but that is normally gone by this point. Especially if you have 7 losses against a #189 NC SOS and 89 overall SOS

The RPI sheet looks like this for Arkansas


1-2 against Q1 (home series against MSU)
5-3 against Q2 (losses to Ark State, TCU, and SC)
1-0 against Q3 (Neutral extra inning game against Texas Tech)
10-3 against Q4 (losses to UT-Arlington, 2 losses to Stetson - all at home)

So, not only do they have 7 losses, six of them are bad losses.

South Caroline is a borderline Q2/Q3 teams

And their only quality wins were 2 at home against Miss. State.

 

[txbo]

I agree, early polls are based on potential but that is normally gone by this point. Especially if you have 7 losses against a #189 NC SOS and 89 overall SOS

The RPI sheet looks like this for Arkansas


1-2 against Q1 (home series against MSU)
5-3 against Q2 (losses to Ark State, TCU, and SC)
1-0 against Q3 (Neutral extra inning game against Texas Tech)
10-3 against Q4 (losses to UT-Arlington, 2 losses to Stetson - all at home)

So, not only do they have 7 losses, six of them are bad losses.

South Caroline is a borderline Q2/Q3 teams

And their only quality wins were 2 at home against Miss. State.

Most committees value weekend series more than midweek games. Two SEC series wins hold a lot of weight. #6 MSU series adds value. Road series win at SC adds value. Winning 2 out of 3 at Arlington adds value.

Those midweek losses don't mean much.

 

[fryeguy93]

Most committees value weekend series more than midweek games. Two SEC series wins hold a lot of weight. #6 MSU series adds value. Road series win at SC adds value. Winning 2 out of 3 at Arlington adds value.

Those midweek losses don't mean much.

They should when your SOS is so low. Their opponents in Arlington are #52, #70, and #127 and a combined 44-26 and they lost a game to the worst record of the three.

 

[gohogs14]

They should when your SOS is so low. Their opponents in Arlington are #52, #70, and #127 and a combined 44-26 and they lost a game to the worst record of the three.

I tend to agree, I think Arkansas is more of a top 15 than top 5 team at this point but it will work its way out over the course of the season.

 

[TheDirector]

I tend to agree, I think Arkansas is more of a top 15 than top 5 team at this point but it will work its way out over the course of the season.

Yeah and I wasn't picking on Arkansas as much as the pollsters. They also do this in football. It seems they get a preseason notion of how to rank teams and then use the polls to prove they were correct instead of just reacting to what happens on the field. Like you said though, it will all work out especially for the SEC teams. Last year the lowest SOS of the 16 SEC teams was 26. Not sure there is a tougher conference schedule in all college sports than SEC baseball.

 

[chuckiepoo]

It seems they get a preseason notion of how to rank teams and then use the polls to prove they were correct instead of just reacting to what happens on the field.

Exactly. Pollsters… lies, damn lies and biased statistics.

 

[fryeguy93]

So much for my kind words about Kent State

 

[fryeguy93]

Updated RPI

Vols drop back 1 spot to #25. Still a lot of movment with only 24-25 games played.

1 Auburn +1 (Run rule win over #64 So Alabama)
2 Texas -1 ( loss at #74 Houston)
3 Southern Miss (unchanged even after run rule loss)
4 Florida State unchanged (neutral loss to Florida
5 Missouri State +4 (beat OK State)
6 Virginia +1 (Neutral win over #42 Maryland- run rule)
7 Ole Miss -2 (loss to $168 Memphis)
8 Florida -4 (neutral site shutout over FSU)
9 UCLA -1 ( win over #179 LMU)
10 Mississippi State (unchanged- not sure why no jump_)
11 USC -5 (getting choked out at home by Oregon State)
12 Alabama -1 ( neutral site win over #115 Peay)
13 Kentucky +1 ( W over #176 Murray St)
14 Coastal Carolina +5 (Big win at #32 Clemson)
15 Louisiana +2 (win over SELA)
16 Texas A&M +2 (W over Houston Christian)
17 Oregon State +12 (Big win at USC)
18 Notre Dame -2 (W over WMU)
19 Cincinnati -6 (crosstown L at #131 Xavier)
20 North Carolina (Neutral site W over #94 SoCar)
21 Oklahoma (no midweek games)
22 Georgia Tech (no midweek games)
23 Virginia Tech (Unchanged after loss at ETSU)
24 UCF -9 (loss at #137 Stetson)
25 Tennessee -1 (W over #68 SC-Upstate)
26 Arizona State +1 (W at #190 UNLV)
27 West Virginia +4 (W at #172 Marshall)
28 Nebraska +5 (W at #34 K State)
29 Wake Forest -3 (run rule over $#155 Elon)
30 Arkansas State -2 (no midweek)

10 SEC teams in top 25
Upstate fell 9 spots (#68). So both teams dropped after game
Tennessee next four opponents have worse RPI than Upstate
#173 Vanderbilt
#115 Austin Peay
#107 LSU
#198 NKU

Even if vols go 8-0, I would not expect a lot of positive movement in RPI


After the LSU series, the SEC RPIs are 10, 7, 12, 13, 2, and 21


Outside the top-30 the SEC is:

#48 UGA
#49 Arkansas
#94 South Carolina
#106 Missouri
#107 LSU
#173 Vanderbilt