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Every week during the season, Will Harris will check with the computers (using TeamRankings' win odds) and wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.
Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is favored by 3 points
TeamRankings win odds for Florida: 39 percent
Credit the Gators for gutting out a win in College Station, but they're up against it in the encore. Florida now must overcome a second straight ESPN "College GameDay" crowd and against a much better team. The Gators also have to do it with a banged-up lineup. Florida has lost two key defenders long term in linebacker Jelani Jenkins and corner Cody Riggs, and several other starters are nursing injuries.
Running back Mike Gillislee, who thus far has been the focal point of the offense and whose gritty performance at A&M keyed the Florida comeback, was one of several Gators in and out of the game last week, and is practicing with a strained groin.
The Vols have lost seven straight in this series but won the last time they were favored and have a good claim on that role again this year. From short-yardage offense to discipline on the defensive line, Tennessee is still working out a lot of issues. But the Vols throw and catch as well as any team in the league and can strike quickly to put up points even when the offense is struggling to sustain drives. New coordinator Sal Sunseri has a seasoned defense, and he was a part of the Alabama teams that shut down the Gators the past two years.
Tennessee (No. 23) is ranked for the first time since the 2008 preseason and is hosting "College GameDay" for the first time since 2004. Derek Dooley is 4-12 in SEC play, and it's fair to call this the most important game of his career. This week he'll enjoy a substantial home-field advantage while leading the best Tennessee team since 2007 against a banged up-opponent making a second straight tough road trip.
The pick: Tennessee 28, Florida 20
The best value plays and upset odds in college football's Week 3 - NCF - ESPN