Loss to Missouri is highly possible (19.6% to be exact)

#128
#128
sjt18 said:
The most likely scenario for losing either games is for Jones to go "ultra conservative" like he did vs UF and OU. I hope that he's learned that lesson. He should attack opponents that have good O's to keep them on their heels. He should attack opponents without good O's even more since the only way they can do any harm is if you let them hang around too long.

If he plays conservative... neither game will be 2-3 score wins. If he goes for the jugular early... either or both could be over early just like UK.
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Ultra conservative against UF?

Did I not see trick plays, 4th down attempts, and an offense that racked up tons of yards?
I also saw a great defensive game plan until midway through the 4th quarter.
 
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#130
#130
jimallvol said:
One thing I've learned through the years watching SEC football, is there's no easy or guaranteed wins against any team on SEC Saturdays. I agree with you. We will need to play mistake free and for 60 mins to win these games. IMO It's so easy to trip up and lose in this conference more so than any other conference on Saturdays.
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UT/UK Saturday called in to disagree.
 
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#132
#132
I kinda thought we were playing the Cocks next. Not sure how you can point to the furthest range of mountains to climb and suggest that is the one to focus on.
 
#135
#135
McDad said:
Ultra conservative against UF?

Did I not see trick plays, 4th down attempts, and an offense that racked up tons of yards?
I also saw a great defensive game plan until midway through the 4th quarter.
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You know what I'm talking about. We've been through this dozens of times. I know. You don't want to acknowledge that the lack of aggression from Jones cost UT those two games. Whatever. It is useless to go through it again when you refuse to see it.

On the other side, I have given Jones a LOT of credit for being more aggressive after that game. He has tried and has largely been successful at imposing his will on the opponent. Shoot... IMO, he outcoached Saban by a relatively wide margin. He has assured a LOT more balance on O between the pass and run. He has continued to pass when in the lead.

Bottom line- 51 runs to 19 passes cannot be called anything BUT conservative.... and especially if only a handful of those 19 passes were beyond 5 yds of the LOS.
 
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#136
#136
GBO97 said:
They're due a TD at some point.
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images
 
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#138
#138
JohnMcA60 said:
It will be close because of how good their defense is.
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Who has their D been good against?

How good they actually are will be more in focus after playing a credible O this weekend. The "best" O they've faced so far was probably UGA a week after losing Chubb.
 
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#139
#139
BTW, can someone give the reference for how the "19.6%" was derived? People keep floating numbers like that without backing them up.... then worse using them to "prove" UT's likelihood of winning out.
 
#140
#140
sjt18 said:
You know what I'm talking about. We've been through this dozens of times. I know. You don't want to acknowledge that the lack of aggression from Jones cost UT those two games. Whatever. It is useless to go through it again when you refuse to see it.

On the other side, I have given Jones a LOT of credit for being more aggressive after that game. He has tried and has largely been successful at imposing his will on the opponent. Shoot... IMO, he outcoached Saban by a relatively wide margin. He has assured a LOT more balance on O between the pass and run. He has continued to pass when in the lead.

Bottom line- 51 runs to 19 passes cannot be called anything BUT conservative.... and especially if only a handful of those 19 passes were beyond 5 yds of the LOS.
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We differ in our categorization of the game. You call the game ultra conservative. It was not. There were ultra conservative plays in the game which we both acknowledge. But calling the game ultra conservative based on a 10 +/- plays is like saying the Mona Lisa is mediocre because of a few bad brush strokes. You're being obtuse in an effort to bolster your opinion CBJ. The game must be assessed in its entirety. Additionally:

1. Of the 51 runs, how many were designed passes which broke down, were well defended, or Joshua was forced to scramble?
2. We ran for 254 yards and UF's defense (through oct 31) is only allowing 110.6 per game; why deviate from something working so well?

The UF loss still makes me angry. But that anger doesn't cloud my judgment of the game plan.
 
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#141
#141
Haha, Freak or some mod is doing a GREAT job clarifying thread names. First we got the
"Maty Mauk gone...Wait...okay, now he's Gone" rename, and now this one to include the 19.6% chance. Hilarious, well done whoever you are. :)
 
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#142
#142
I have two new dollars that says we whip Misous behind, so put up or shut up!
 
#144
#144
sjt18 said:
BTW, can someone give the reference for how the "19.6%" was derived? People keep floating numbers like that without backing them up.... then worse using them to "prove" UT's likelihood of winning out.
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ESPN's statisticians could...but they won't. They closely guard their algorithms.

Here are a couple of articles on the FPI. The first is by ESPN themselves. The second is by some UGa fan who, without being able to look under the hood himself, comes to the conclusion that the FPI is "accurate, but not exceptional." That's in comparison to Vegas' models, Sagarin, and other nationwide modelling systems, I think.

Understanding ESPN Team Rankings

Does ESPN's FPI Predict Games Accurately? - For Whom the Cowbell Tolls

p.s. The Dawg writer thinks 75% predict rating is good but not great; it's actually up there at the leading edge of predictive models, afaik.

Go Vols!
 
#145
#145
govols105 said:
Missouri is the biggest of the last 4 games left. we will have to play a complete game to beat them. USCjr is a concern but missouri is the biggest of the 4 games left.
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I encourage you to look at the percentage chance again after/if we win against USCjr and North Texas. That's the fickle thing about the FPI. We assume that we will win the two preceding games. The FPI just looks at our chance of leapfrogging to that game right now. Our FPI statistics will be stronger by 11/21.

Stats are funny things.
 
#147
#147
McDad said:
We differ in our categorization of the game. You call the game ultra conservative. It was not. There were ultra conservative plays in the game which we both acknowledge. But calling the game ultra conservative based on a 10 +/- plays is like saying the Mona Lisa is mediocre because of a few bad brush strokes.
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We do differ. I watched a game and saw a coach terrified of putting players in a position to make a mistake and especially on O. I'm not sure what you were watching but it seems to have been through a biased lens.

You're being obtuse in an effort to bolster your opinion CBJ.
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So... am I still being obtuse when I give him credit for showing more faith in the players and asserting his will over opponents since that game? Was I being obtuse when I praised his development of players? My "opinion" is shaped by what I see Jones do... unlike the few that have already written him off or the many who are blind to every mistake or blemish.

1. Of the 51 runs, how many were designed passes which broke down, were well defended, or Joshua was forced to scramble?
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It is your job to prove your opinion. Not mine. There were likely some but not enough to shift the ratio to "balanced. UF took big chances on D. They only worked because UT had no balance on O. He didn't trust his O to complete a pass downfield. He didn't attack UF's D when they provided an opening.

In a microcosm, go to the 3:25 mark of the 4th qtr and watch the CB at the top of the screen. He crashes down and the S comes with him. I simple PA and go with that WR ends the game. But UF gambled based on how passive Jones had been and how reluctant he had been to throw down field... and won BIG.

2. We ran for 254 yards and UF's defense (through oct 31) is only allowing 110.6 per game; why deviate from something working so well?
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Well basically because the passing game didn't get in a rhythm so when it was needed... it wasn't there. UF sold out to stop the run in the 2nd half and was able to do it. That appears to be a lesson Jones has learned pretty well. In every game since they've tried to be more balanced early. They gave Dobbs some throws early even vs Bama and kept throwing even though they didn't have early success.

The UF loss still makes me angry. But that anger doesn't cloud my judgment of the game plan.
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No. Your reluctance to admit Jones' shortcomings appears to however.
 
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#148
#148
govols105 said:
Missouri is the biggest of the last 4 games left. we will have to play a complete game to beat them. USCjr is a concern but missouri is the biggest of the 4 games left.
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Any team can beat us if we play poorly.

Kentucky had the best chance of beating us with 22% prior to playing them according to ESPN FPI site.

BTW, 19.6% is not what I would call highly possible.
 
#149
#149
VolStrom said:
It's an ESPN power ranking / match up predictor.

Tennessee vs. Missouri - Game Summary - November 20, 2015 - ESPN
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But why should we have confidence in that?

AND... will it change after this Thursday? This Saturday? The next Saturday?

If it does... then was it very reliable to start with... and you know that it will. The point of those things is that they provide a very broad base primarily for betting. The house's objective in gambling isn't to predict outcomes... it is to line bets up so that the HOUSE makes money.


The two points are still out there and I don't believe they've been answered. One is the reliability of those %'s. Two is the application of this mathematical method to a specific case.


In a past job, we used statistical models to predict and control quality. If you have a stable process (one subject to primarily random variations) and history then you can begin to accurately predict how many pieces will be out of spec. Let's say 3%. But you could NOT pick up 4 pieces and say there was a 12% chance of one of them being bad (.97 e4).

But what we are discussing is NOT a "stable" process. The variables when it comes to the examination of a limited portion of the population don't allow it.
 
#150
#150
No excuse to lose to Mizzou. Their defense is good, but we have scored on better.
 
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