Looks like Oregon is a 13.5 pt favorite over U.T.

#201
#201
SEC Nightmare said:
It's posts like these that destroy the credibility of those of us who actually know a thing or two about football on this board.

Can Tennessee win? Sure. Will it be easy? Hell no.
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Creda -what? This is a football board. This is where the overzealous come to post their sometimes misguided hopes.
Who are you to throw water on any fan's fire?
Shove that stick a little deeper.
 
#205
#205
Trminton said:
I want UT to kill them in every way, but if we lose by only 13, it is still a win..
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"still a win"?!?!!? what kind of crack pipe are you smokin'?

smokin.gif
 
#206
#206
For the record, I'll be in Las Vegas that day and I am taking Tennessee, unless the line moves dramatically between now and then.
 
#207
#207
JeepJeep said:
"still a win"?!?!!? what kind of crack pipe are you smokin'?

smokin.gif
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The same one Kiffin handed VolNation after only losing 23-13 to Florida last year (see: "moral victory)".

Apparently, he got it out of storage, dusted it off, and fired it up.
 
#208
#208
haha...funny.

I suppose you guys basically gave up on UT after the Florida loss last year since they lost the game and basically could not go all the way? You probably figured since they failed against bama that they didnt have a chance to make a bowl game. You can gag up a Kiffin reference all you want to make yourself feel nice and warm with all that California love, but I saw that the loss against florida and losing the heartbreaker to bama was still a demonstration of what kind of character that team had.

What I was referring to was that if they can keep it close against Oregon, it shows that this team is and will be for real this year and for upcoming seasons. If they can hang with Oregon well and keep it close enough to have a chance to win it, then at the very least, it demonstrates their current talent and coaching ability. I want UT to win every game totally and without mercy. But I also will not lose hope just because they lose.
 
#209
#209
So VegasVol... I'm curious... if you were to bet on this one based on what you know right now, what would you do?

VegasVol said:
The margin of victory. So Tennessee is expected to lose by 13 1/2 points -- if they lose by 13 or less (or win), Tennessee betters win; if they lose by 14 or more, Oregon betters win. Statistically, it also reflects the probable range of outcomes and the probability of victory, according to Vegas. For example:

According to Vegas money-line norms, a 3 point underdog has a 40% chance of winning; a 7 point underdog has a 33% chance of winning; a 10 point underdog has a 25% chance of winning; a 14 point underdog as a 20% chance of winning; etc.

Equally, a spread reflects a certain probability of outlier outcomes (such as x chance of losing by 7, 10, 14 or more, and x chance of winning, winning by 3, winning by 7 or more, etc) but that would be a lot of statistical jargon to get into. Generally, Vegas is very accurate (improving its accuracy over the last decade or so), though they still have their misses.
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#210
#210
What's the biggest weakness on our offense? The line? Their starting defensive line doesn't appear to be very big. 248, 230, 250, 256. I think our OL will be able to handle their own, and I think we will be able to run the ball with reasonable success. This should be very important. If we can sustain drives, it will help keep that potent offense off the field and give our guys some time to rest. I'm not confident that we're explosive enough to be able to keep up in a high scoring game.
 
#211
#211
golfballs03 said:
What's the biggest weakness on our offense? The line? Their starting defensive line doesn't appear to be very big. 248, 230, 250, 256. I think our OL will be able to handle their own, and I think we will be able to run the ball with reasonable success. This should be very important. If we can sustain drives, it will help keep that potent offense off the field and give our guys some time to rest. I'm not confident that we're explosive enough to be able to keep up in a high scoring game.
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Have to agree its the line but they may match up better than people think based on size so I agree with you.

On the other side of the ball, something tells me that we're going be getting some gifts, like two or three interceptions. I think they're going to start slinging it early even though the better bet is their run game. I don't know why, and maybe I'm just hoping here I guess, but they slung it a LOT against NM.
 
#213
#213
golfballs03 said:
What's the biggest weakness on our offense? The line? Their starting defensive line doesn't appear to be very big. 248, 230, 250, 256. I think our OL will be able to handle their own, and I think we will be able to run the ball with reasonable success. This should be very important. If we can sustain drives, it will help keep that potent offense off the field and give our guys some time to rest. I'm not confident that we're explosive enough to be able to keep up in a high scoring game.
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Simms' confusion; Simms' accuracy; and the blocking schemes as matched up against their often unusual defensive schemes.
 
#214
#214
VegasVol said:
Already took UT at +13 1/2. Chance of them winning by that margin is less than 40%, imo.
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Could be a good move.

The line is already down to 13. Some big books have it as low as 12.
 
#215
#215
txbo said:
Could be a good move.

The line is already down to 13. Some big books have it as low as 12.
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Smart $ started coming in on the game late Monday and continued today. Appears heavily slanted toward Tennessee. Another fact of interest: Dooley was 7-1 against the line as a HC as a home underdog at La Tech.
 
#216
#216
I'm not a gambler and never give a crap about who was favorite in a game. Waste of time IMO. Just play the game and find out in the end. All these TV analyst are getting paid for nothing too. They run their mouths all week telling us what will happen. Usually they are wrong in the end. Just play the game!!
 
#217
#217
golfballs03 said:
What's the biggest weakness on our offense? The line? Their starting defensive line doesn't appear to be very big. 248, 230, 250, 256. I think our OL will be able to handle their own, and I think we will be able to run the ball with reasonable success. This should be very important. If we can sustain drives, it will help keep that potent offense off the field and give our guys some time to rest. I'm not confident that we're explosive enough to be able to keep up in a high scoring game.
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So, most of you guys aren't going to like what I'm about to say, but I'm going to write it anyway, as some of you will find it useful and maybe it will keep you from making the mistake of betting an unreasonably large sum of money on your beloved Vols.

First, on the factual front, we are indeed somewhat undersized on the d-line, but those numbers above are old or inaccurate. From our current roster, the starting d-line is 261, 272, 270, 232 (hybrid OLB/DE).

Now, on to the painful part. I watched your game against UT-M on espn3 and you guys will struggle to move the ball against the Oregon defense. Your offensive line was not dominating a mediocre FCS defensive front until they were worn down in the third quarter, at which point the UT o-line started really taking it to them.

That is not going to be nearly good enough against Oregon. This was the best defense in the Pac-10 last year, has 8/9 starters back and by all accounts, is looking better than ever this fall. You may not have much respect for the Pac-10, but it goes without saying, that the Ducks are far superior to Tennessee-Martin in every way. A team who UT didn't dominate until they were worn out (which will not happen to Oregon, as the Ducks are VERY deep on defense).

You have two really nice backs and from what I saw and have read, you have a lot of potential on the o-line; but your offense is going to struggle mightily in this game, so don't bet the house on this one. An inexperienced offensive line (even one that is going to be good) against a strong/experienced defense that throws a ton of different looks at offenses, is a recipe for disaster. We experienced this last year in our opener against Boise St. and our o-line, though talented, struggled through our first three games, improving incrementally and finally playing well for the first time in game four.

By the way, while I think a Tennessee win is unlikely, it could still happen despite what I wrote above. The UT defense looks very good and maybe they can shut down the Oregon offense as well (I'd be surprised, but I've been surprised before). Or, there are always turnovers, and if enough go your way, you always have a chance.

If the turnover margin is even, Oregon is about 20 points better than UT in my opinion. But if I'm wrong, I'll be happy to stop by Sunday or Monday to take my medicine.

Good luck and here's hoping that both teams get through the game injury free.
 
#218
#218
scoregon said:
So, most of you guys aren't going to like what I'm about to say, but I'm going to write it anyway, as some of you will find it useful and maybe it will keep you from making the mistake of betting an unreasonably large sum of money on your beloved Vols.

First, on the factual front, we are indeed somewhat undersized on the d-line, but those numbers above are old or inaccurate. From our current roster, the starting d-line is 261, 272, 270, 232 (hybrid OLB/DE).

Now, on to the painful part. I watched your game against UT-M on espn3 and you guys will struggle to move the ball against the Oregon defense. Your offensive line was not dominating a mediocre FCS defensive front until they were worn down in the third quarter, at which point the UT o-line started really taking it to them.

That is not going to be nearly good enough against Oregon. This was the best defense in the Pac-10 last year, has 8/9 starters back and by all accounts, is looking better than ever this fall. You may not have much respect for the Pac-10, but it goes without saying, that the Ducks are far superior to Tennessee-Martin in every way. A team who UT didn't dominate until they were worn out (which will not happen to Oregon, as the Ducks are VERY deep on defense).

You have two really nice backs and from what I saw and have read, you have a lot of potential on the o-line; but your offense is going to struggle mightily in this game, so don't bet the house on this one. An inexperienced offensive line (even one that is going to be good) against a strong/experienced defense that throws a ton of different looks at offenses, is a recipe for disaster. We experienced this last year in our opener against Boise St. and our o-line, though talented, struggled through our first three games, improving incrementally and finally playing well for the first time in game four.

By the way, while I think a Tennessee win is unlikely, it could still happen despite what I wrote above. The UT defense looks very good and maybe they can shut down the Oregon offense as well (I'd be surprised, but I've been surprised before). Or, there are always turnovers, and if enough go your way, you always have a chance.

If the turnover margin is even, Oregon is about 20 points better than UT in my opinion. But if I'm wrong, I'll be happy to stop by Sunday or Monday to take my medicine.

Good luck and here's hoping that both teams get through the game injury free.
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1. The "best" defense in the PAC-10? As another SEC player relayed once, we have PAC-10 defenses too in the SEC; most of them are called scout teams. Defense has not been the PAC-10 strength in a few seasons now, save schools from southern California. Here's what your defense did last year against decent offenses:
Purdue -- 36 points
Utah -- 24 points
Cal -- 3 points
USC -- 20 points
Stanford -- 42 points
Arizona -- 34 points (regular time)
Oregon State -- 33 points
Ohio State -- 26 points

So, you gave up 30 or more half the time. FYI: you didn't finish as the best defense in the PAC-10 by almost any defensive statistic of consequence.

Note: your road record against teams with decent talent.

@ Boise L 8-19
@ UCLA W 24-10
@ Stanford L 42-51
@ Arizona W 44-41 2OT
@ Purdue W 32-26 OT
@ USC L 10-44
@ Cal L 16-26
@ Oregon State W 65-38
@ Michigan W 39-7
@ Arizona L 24-34
@ UCLA L 0-16

That's 5-6, and Tennessee has better recruited talent than most of those teams. No way Oregon is "20 points better than us" on average. We have equal amount of talent on both sides of the ball & our young offensive line is playing at home, not on the road.
 
#219
#219
Not about to predict a tennessee win, but I find it hard to believe it will be a blowout.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#220
#220
*In super hero voice*

MUST...... WIN....... TURNOVER........ BATTLE......

DUCKS....ARE....DESTROYING.....STADIUM
 
#221
#221
VegasVol said:
So, you gave up 30 or more half the time. FYI: you didn't finish as the best defense in the PAC-10 by almost any defensive statistic of consequence.
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The points scored against Oregon are misleading. Because Oregon scores so quickly, their defense plays a lot of snaps. They had one of the lowest times of possession in college football last year, despite also having high offensive numbers.

They finished first in the Pac-10 in least yards allowed per play. I think that is a defensive statistic of consequence since it factors out how many more snaps a given defense might have faced during a season.

VegasVol said:
Note: your road record against teams with decent talent.

@ Boise L 8-19
@ UCLA W 24-10
@ Stanford L 42-51
@ Arizona W 44-41 2OT
@ Purdue W 32-26 OT
@ USC L 10-44
@ Cal L 16-26
@ Oregon State W 65-38
@ Michigan W 39-7
@ Arizona L 24-34
@ UCLA L 0-16
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I'm not sure why the "how a team plays on the road" argument is brought up. It's a different group of players each season. They didn't even have the same coaches for some of those games.

Predicting outcomes based on past road-game performances is similar to thinking that after flipping tails twice, the next coin flip doesn't have a 50/50 chance of landing on tails again.
 
#222
#222
#10_Ainge_#10 said:
Only variable I will go with is I would take UT and the points because Wilcox will have the defense ready. Other than that I think the spread is about right and I wouldn't be shocked if we got beat by that or more. Wouldn't be shocked if we upset them or kept it fairly close all game either if that makes sense?
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+1. Ducks will cover the spread
 
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