NighthawkVol
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In deciding whether or not this team met, fell short of, or exceeded expectations this season, it's really hard to say. It depends on when we look at the expectations, I guess. Following the scrimmages with Gonzaga and Michigan State, many, myself included, had high hopes for an SEC title and Final 4 run. Key was going to be a great addition and give us that basket-maker we needed to end dry spells. JJJ was finally healthy and (perhaps) ready to be consistent. ORN was back healthy. Phillips was a mature, focused, hard-working freshman who would provide a scoring punch if not early in the season, by March. We didn't know Key's game against Gonzaga was a fluke. Or that JJJ would struggle with injuries and consistency (again) all season. Or that Phillips would struggle to improve (even regressing, honestly). Or that Zeigler would blow his ACL.
Given all that happened, I'd say Sweet 16 is meeting expectations. We had some big wins. I always love beating Alabama, even when they're not as good as they were this year. The wins over Kansas, Texas, and Duke are all the kinds of wins this program used to never see. But finishing tied for 5th, losing twice to Kentucky, twice to Missouri, and once to Vandy was disappointing. And of course, we felt like we should have beaten that FAU team....which, as it turns out, was tragically under-seeded.
Looking ahead, as of right now, I have a lineup of:
PG- Zakai Ziegler, BJ Edwards
G- Jamai Mashack, Freddie Dilione, Cameron Carr
W- Julian Phillips, DJ Jefferson
PF- Tobe Awaka, Cade Phillips
C- Jonas Aidoo, JP Estrella
Add to that 1 portal big and 1 portal PG (or at least a CG). I guess it's also possible that we could land a last-minute decommit from another program that experiences coaching turnover, as we did with JP last year, but I don't know who that would be. Based on all that, it's impossible at this point to set expectations for next year. So many unknowns, including knowing what our current personnel will look like. My hopes/questions are:
1) Aidoo develops into the post he's capable of being and becomes a double-digit scorer, to go with his already stellar defense and rebounding.
2) Awaka develops an offensive game AND improves his FT shooting. I actually think he will develop as a scorer. He shows signs of being a good one.
3) Mashack continues to develop his offensive game. If he improves as much from Year 2 to Year 3 as he did from Year 1 to Year 2, he'll be a star. He's got the midrange jumper down. Extend that to the 3 point line, keep improving as a ball-handler/slasher, and he's All-SEC good.
4) ZZ makes a full recovery. It would also be nice to see him become a more consistent shooter. He has a great shot.
5) How do guys like Jefferson and Edwards develop? Can Jefferson shoot?
6) Freshmen: How ready is Dillione to play big minutes? Enrolling early, redshirting, and getting stronger should be huge for him. Carr is a shooter....will be be ready to be a knock down shooter as a freshman, though? Will the other aspects of his game allow him to get minutes? Can Estrella be our 3rd big man off the bench and handle that spot well?
7) Lastly, if Phillips comes back (I think he will), how much better will he be? He has gobs of potential. If he can become that star we need, that would be HUGE. Haven't had that since Grant and frankly, JP has a higher upside. This could be his team, the way Bama was Miller's team this year.
The answers to all of these questions will determine the course of next season. I have a feeling this could be a much better team than many expect.
As for opponents: we know we play Illinois in Knoxville. The field in Maui is going to be loaded, with Kansas, Purdue, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Marquette, and UCLA. So we'l play at least 2 powerhouses there, probably 3. I'm sure we'll see some more additions to the non-conference schedule. Win or lose those games, they should make our guys better.
As for the SEC:
1) Alabama will lose Miller, Clowney, Quinerly, and Gurley. Their top players next year will be Jaden Bradley, Mark Sears, and Charles Bediako. They have a nice recruiting class coming in, but no one you look at and say, that's an instant star...or even instant starter. So I think Bama takes a step back. Still a NCAAT team, but more like a 2023 Missouri level team than what we saw this year.
2) Kentucky is bringing in the best recruiting class of all-time (arguably). They lose Reeves, Frederick, Tshiebwe, Wheeler, Toppin, and Wallace. They do return Livingston. Super young, but super talented.
3) Missouri will still be good, IMO. Maybe better. They found a coach.
4) Vanderbilt: I'm impressed with Stackhouse. Just depends on what kind of talent he has next year. They return everyone but Robbins and Wright....but they were doing fine without Robbins at the end of the season. I think they'll improve and be a tough team. I expect the NCAAT for them, maybe more.
5) Florida: No idea. They sometimes showed signs of being a program on the rise and sometimes, they looked like a program that is going to flounder for awhile. If a coach is going to succeed, he usually makes a jump in Year 2. We'll see.
6) Auburn: Green and Johnson return. Their roster will be pretty similar to this year. Their fate will simply depend on whether or not they can become more consistent. They'll still be a very tough out.
7) Arkansas: They lose 4 studs from a disappointing team and bring in two 5*s. Meh. They'll have some talent, but I'm not expecting them to make a ton of noise.
Bottom line, this should be a wide-open SEC next year. I'm guessing most will predict Kentucky to win it in the preseason, based on name and that recruiting class, but recent history has shown that Cal can flop with teams built around the freshmen. I don't see another team that has a decided talent advantage on Tennessee and guys like ZZ, Mashack, Phillips, and Aidoo give us a lot of returning experience.
So this post is a lot of words saying, Tennessee could have a very average season next year or we could have a great season. Much depends on who we can get from the portal and how those 7 questions above are answered.
Given all that happened, I'd say Sweet 16 is meeting expectations. We had some big wins. I always love beating Alabama, even when they're not as good as they were this year. The wins over Kansas, Texas, and Duke are all the kinds of wins this program used to never see. But finishing tied for 5th, losing twice to Kentucky, twice to Missouri, and once to Vandy was disappointing. And of course, we felt like we should have beaten that FAU team....which, as it turns out, was tragically under-seeded.
Looking ahead, as of right now, I have a lineup of:
PG- Zakai Ziegler, BJ Edwards
G- Jamai Mashack, Freddie Dilione, Cameron Carr
W- Julian Phillips, DJ Jefferson
PF- Tobe Awaka, Cade Phillips
C- Jonas Aidoo, JP Estrella
Add to that 1 portal big and 1 portal PG (or at least a CG). I guess it's also possible that we could land a last-minute decommit from another program that experiences coaching turnover, as we did with JP last year, but I don't know who that would be. Based on all that, it's impossible at this point to set expectations for next year. So many unknowns, including knowing what our current personnel will look like. My hopes/questions are:
1) Aidoo develops into the post he's capable of being and becomes a double-digit scorer, to go with his already stellar defense and rebounding.
2) Awaka develops an offensive game AND improves his FT shooting. I actually think he will develop as a scorer. He shows signs of being a good one.
3) Mashack continues to develop his offensive game. If he improves as much from Year 2 to Year 3 as he did from Year 1 to Year 2, he'll be a star. He's got the midrange jumper down. Extend that to the 3 point line, keep improving as a ball-handler/slasher, and he's All-SEC good.
4) ZZ makes a full recovery. It would also be nice to see him become a more consistent shooter. He has a great shot.
5) How do guys like Jefferson and Edwards develop? Can Jefferson shoot?
6) Freshmen: How ready is Dillione to play big minutes? Enrolling early, redshirting, and getting stronger should be huge for him. Carr is a shooter....will be be ready to be a knock down shooter as a freshman, though? Will the other aspects of his game allow him to get minutes? Can Estrella be our 3rd big man off the bench and handle that spot well?
7) Lastly, if Phillips comes back (I think he will), how much better will he be? He has gobs of potential. If he can become that star we need, that would be HUGE. Haven't had that since Grant and frankly, JP has a higher upside. This could be his team, the way Bama was Miller's team this year.
The answers to all of these questions will determine the course of next season. I have a feeling this could be a much better team than many expect.
As for opponents: we know we play Illinois in Knoxville. The field in Maui is going to be loaded, with Kansas, Purdue, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Marquette, and UCLA. So we'l play at least 2 powerhouses there, probably 3. I'm sure we'll see some more additions to the non-conference schedule. Win or lose those games, they should make our guys better.
As for the SEC:
1) Alabama will lose Miller, Clowney, Quinerly, and Gurley. Their top players next year will be Jaden Bradley, Mark Sears, and Charles Bediako. They have a nice recruiting class coming in, but no one you look at and say, that's an instant star...or even instant starter. So I think Bama takes a step back. Still a NCAAT team, but more like a 2023 Missouri level team than what we saw this year.
2) Kentucky is bringing in the best recruiting class of all-time (arguably). They lose Reeves, Frederick, Tshiebwe, Wheeler, Toppin, and Wallace. They do return Livingston. Super young, but super talented.
3) Missouri will still be good, IMO. Maybe better. They found a coach.
4) Vanderbilt: I'm impressed with Stackhouse. Just depends on what kind of talent he has next year. They return everyone but Robbins and Wright....but they were doing fine without Robbins at the end of the season. I think they'll improve and be a tough team. I expect the NCAAT for them, maybe more.
5) Florida: No idea. They sometimes showed signs of being a program on the rise and sometimes, they looked like a program that is going to flounder for awhile. If a coach is going to succeed, he usually makes a jump in Year 2. We'll see.
6) Auburn: Green and Johnson return. Their roster will be pretty similar to this year. Their fate will simply depend on whether or not they can become more consistent. They'll still be a very tough out.
7) Arkansas: They lose 4 studs from a disappointing team and bring in two 5*s. Meh. They'll have some talent, but I'm not expecting them to make a ton of noise.
Bottom line, this should be a wide-open SEC next year. I'm guessing most will predict Kentucky to win it in the preseason, based on name and that recruiting class, but recent history has shown that Cal can flop with teams built around the freshmen. I don't see another team that has a decided talent advantage on Tennessee and guys like ZZ, Mashack, Phillips, and Aidoo give us a lot of returning experience.
So this post is a lot of words saying, Tennessee could have a very average season next year or we could have a great season. Much depends on who we can get from the portal and how those 7 questions above are answered.
