Let's Track the "Professional" Predictions of the Vols 2014 season.

#77
#77
daj2576 said:
For every exception, there are many more that prove the rule.
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one of the basic tenets of statistics, one that can be hard to grasp, and one that needs to be a sticky in all threads like this!
 
#78
#78
tm3 said:
one of the basic tenets of statistics, one that can be hard to grasp, and one that needs to be a sticky in all threads like this!
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It's easy to focus on the exceptions and miss everything else. Part of that is driven by the way the media gives us information. Like the old example states: nobody cares about the tens of thousands of safe landings at LAX, just the wreck. ESPN covers sports the same way.
 
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#79
#79
daj2576 said:
It's easy to focus on the exceptions and miss everything else. Part of that is driven by the way the media gives us information. Like the old example states: nobody cares about the tens of thousands of safe landings at LAX, just the wreck. ESPN covers sports the same way.
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Nice avy and well put.
 
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#80
#80
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#82
#82
Rooster1 said:
Adventures in Stats: 2014 Tennessee Football Opponent Rankings - Rocky Top Talk
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Very interesting.

The problem with that methodology is that it presumes basically that all schedules are the same (is Utah State really playing similar competition to UT, thus allowing for a meaningful comparison?). For instance, it talks about the numbers derived from Utah State's performance last year and extrapolates that out: "Utah State has a significantly better defense than anyone outside the Mountain West realizes, and the return of Chucky Keeton at quarterback means that the offensive ranking is almost certainly too low."

I summarily disagree with that sort of analysis, as it derives meaning from the same stats but against totally dissimilar opponents. The most meaningful comparison could be made against SEC teams as they have similar opponents.

At a cursory level, I get the methodology and I think it can be highly valuable if narrowed to comparing apples to apples. The way it stands now, there are some opponents ranked that would be like looking at UT's stats against Austin Peay and Western Kentucky as a way to surmise how well UT will do against 'Bama. I don't think that works, unless I am missing something.
 
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#83
#83
daj2576 said:
Very interesting.

The problem with that methodology is that it presumes basically that all schedules are the same (is Utah State really playing similar competition to UT, thus allowing for a meaningful comparison?). For instance, it talks about the numbers derived from Utah State's performance last year and extrapolates that out: "Utah State has a significantly better defense than anyone outside the Mountain West realizes, and the return of Chucky Keeton at quarterback means that the offensive ranking is almost certainly too low."

I summarily disagree with that sort of analysis, as it derives meaning from the same stats but against totally dissimilar opponents. The most meaningful comparison could be made against SEC teams as they have similar opponents.

At a cursory level, I get the methodology and I think it can be highly valuable if narrowed to comparing apples to apples. The way it stands now, there are some opponents ranked that would be like looking at UT's stats against Austin Peay and Western Kentucky as a way to surmise how well UT will do against 'Bama. I don't think that works, unless I am missing something.
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Agree. USU is in for some hurting. Watch.
 
#86
#86
DiderotsGhost said:
Here's the preseason prediction for the Vols from a Bama site:

Predicting the 2014 Tennessee Volunteers

They have us going 5-7, with wins versus Kentucky and Vandy, and losses to every other SEC team.
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Updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vOKoQ_Pix10mXVhg6lEOdU8NNvYUVVZq07lJvw8KrA0/edit?usp=sharing

One thing that is amazing to me is how many people claim that USU will be a test, some even say that game will require UT's "best effort", but no one picks USU to win. If the game was really that much of a test, shouldn't someone actually pick the Aggies to win?
 
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#87
#87
daj2576 said:
Updated: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vOKoQ_Pix10mXVhg6lEOdU8NNvYUVVZq07lJvw8KrA0/edit?usp=sharing

One thing that is amazing to me is how many people claim that USU will be a test, some even say that game will require UT's "best effort", but no one picks USU to win. If the game was really that much of a test, shouldn't someone actually pick the Aggies to win?
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On another note, why are so many experts readily picking USC to beat UT this year? Home field advantage perhaps?
 
#88
#88
The Sporting News 2014 College Football Yearbook does not offer a win-loss prediction for Tennessee nor do they provide a national preseason power ranking, other than their Top 25. However, they do predict that the Big Orange will finish 5th in the SEC East, immediately behind Missouri and ahead of Vahn-derbilt. More importantly, they project us as achieving bowl eligibility, pitting UT against East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl, so one can assume that they foresee at least a six-win campaign. JC Shurburtt, the national recruiting director for 247 Sports, provides, by far, the most intriguing observation within their synopsis of Tennessee’s forthcoming season: “Perhaps no class will impact a single program more than the vast, deep (No. 7 nationally) class Butch Jones attracted to Tennessee.”
 
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#89
#89
We were inches literally inches away from being 7-5 last year. Pig Howard fumbled inches away from a UT Touchdown against Georgia and then again in the Vanderbilt game we were inches away from stopping them and came up a little short.

Sure we lost our O line and our D line and one class might be make you a national champion but I think 1 recruiting class is enough to make up the inches. I think we're going to finish 7-5. I think our wins come against Utah St, Arkansas St, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida and either Ole Miss or Missouri. I really don't see Mizz and Ole Miss both being out of reach but for arguments sake just say we win one of those games we've got our 7-5.

UT is going to have a lot more speed on offense this year than they had last year and I can certainly see them average a little more than what 23 points per game from last year.
 
#92
#92
daj2576 said:
Do you believe that the next home game they play is effected by the last one they played? Or are you just pointing out that you understand the flaw in the "expert's" logic?
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Experts logic always seems to favor superstition and for some reason they get behind streaks. USC does have an 18 game winning streak but I don't think it's going to last very long during the 2014 season.
 
#93
#93
volfan1231 said:
Experts logic always seems to favor superstition and for some reason they get behind streaks. USC does have an 18 game winning streak but I don't think it's going to last very long during the 2014 season.
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I agree on all counts.
 
#95
#95
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#96
#96
I realize that Bleacher Report is not held in high regard by Vol Nation, but columnist Reid Akins at least has the guts to provide game-by-game predictions, complete with final scores, for the upcoming season. Akins offers a comparative voice of reason in the recent sea of disdain for the Vols. He foresees a 7-5 campaign, 4-4 in the conference, with victories over the teams Tennessee truly should beat and, most importantly, an end to the drought at the hands of the Reptilian Horde. Game-by-game predictions are as follows:

Tennessee 31, Utah State 17
Tennessee 38, Arkansas State 24
Oklahoma 35, Tennessee 24. This predicted margin of victory would not surprise me in the least.

Georgia 41, Tennessee 21.

Tennessee 24, Florida 21. The end of this cursed losing streak will come to pass this year, according to Akins. “Although Florida will likely be much improved compared to the team's disastrous 4-8 record last season, Tennessee will finally break through and pull off a much-needed win over its SEC East rival, in large part due to breakout performances by several newcomers on the Vols roster. Expect a close game throughout, with a late Tennessee field goal sealing the victory.”

Tennessee 45, Chattanooga 10.

Ole Miss 35, Tennessee 17. Akins uses this game as a comparative barometer of things to come for Butch’s boys. “While Tennessee pulled in a monster recruiting class of its own in 2014, those players are still freshmen and a year away from truly showcasing their potential. The Rebels will display why they're one of the fastest-rising teams in the nation when they take on the Volunteers on Oct. 18. The end result won't be pretty for Tennessee fans, but it will also give them a preview of where their own program is headed under Jones.”

Alabama 31, Tennessee 20. In explaining the much more respectable final margin of defeat, Akins observes that “unlike recent years, Tennessee will hang around long enough to keep this one interesting until the end. The loss of star quarterback A.J. McCarron means Alabama won't be able to shred Tennessee through the air as easily as it did in years past, and Tennessee's improved speed at the linebacker and defensive back positions will prevent big plays on the ground.”

South Carolina 35, Tennessee 24.
Tennessee 28, Kentucky 14.
Tennessee 24, Missouri 17.
Tennessee 21, Vanderbilt 17.

Final Regular-Season Record: 7-5. See Tennessee Football: Final Game-by-Game Schedule Predictions | Bleacher Report.
 
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#97
#97
this should be interesting read for some. I hope it sets some perspective on what a totally replaced line and a bunch of freshman gets you in the expectation game. Butch and the vols did to well early, got our expectations pumped up to high. It's a good read.
 
#98
#98
Bump.

Looks like a few of the 4-8 predictions, from the likes of Saturday Down South, ESPN, and Sports Illustrated, have already proven to be incorrect.
 
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#99
#99
Interesting to look back at the predictions. The biggest surprise to me has been obviously Dobbs, but second would be how good the defense has played. Oline takes time to gel and should be much better next year. The future finally looks bright for our Vols!
 
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