Let's look at 2016 to date

[McDad]

I believe CBJ was better than 1 game above expectations a year. If memory serves, pre UT he was averaging more than 2.

But...

At UT his trend is slightly below expectations, but well within a standard deviation. That means that as a general rule he is tied directly to how well he recruits in relation to our competition.

Assuming no giant unforeseen swings in talent by any teams on national signing day, next year we trade a projected loss to A&M to a projected loss to LSU (a wash). Everything else should look relatively close to how it did this year (with a 9-3 expectation, and a chance for a game swing either way). Take all of this with a grain of salt until NSD when we redo the evals.

This is why recruiting is hyper important at UT. Not only are most coaches tied strongly to their recruiting (the idea that so many "big name" coaches are exceeding expectations is largely a myth), but for us to get better we have to recruit better quality players than about 4-6 of the best recruiting teams in the country. We're slowly crawling back up the ladder to early 2000 era SEC rankings. Personally, I don't think you fire Jones for an 8-10 win season. I think you fire him when his recruiting starts going backwards. I don't think he is the long term solution, but I think he is the guy that is going to get us the stability to make the job attractive enough for the guy who is. But, what I think doesn't matter.

Would we not expect a loss to UF at the swamp since our rankings look even? or are our rankings diverging?

 

[daj2576]

Would we not expect a loss to UF at the swamp since our rankings look even? or are our rankings diverging?

We closed the gap and surpassed them this year. If that continues, I would say the numbers say a win @ UF is likely.

 

[DownNDirty]

Would we not expect a loss to UF at the swamp since our rankings look even? or are our rankings diverging?

Georgia Tech will return around 17 out of 22 starters next year. They haven't looked like world beaters this year but they are really young. And with the style of ball they play I could easily see us dropping the first game next year.

Of course we'll beat Indiana State

Lose to Florida on the road

Beat UMass

Georgia - who knows

South Carolina - they beat us this year somehow

Alabama - probable loss

Kentucky - not a gimmie

Southern Miss - win

Missouri - probable win

LSU - probable loss

Vandy - not a gimmie

So, with what they are losing after this year in the "rebuild" next year we could be anywhere from a 9-3 ceiling IMO to a 6-6 floor. I just don't see things ending well for Butch Jones here.

 

[daj2576]

7 SEC games this week.

Talent predicted 5 (71%).

On the season, talent has predicted 68% of the games correctly.



Georgia closed out the season with a big upset win, but Kirby Smart's first year in the SEC will go down as the largest under-performance in conference for 2016 (and, 1 game away from the -4 game threshold that is the number that gets most coaches not named Muschamp fired). LSU and Ole Miss could tie this performance if they lost their remaining games. Unlikely.

Kentucky closed out it's 4th SEC season under Stoops with another devastating loss to the Vols. When the dust settles they have a real shot at being the largest over-performance in the SEC (If Arkansas beats both Missouri and Miss St they would jump Kentucky as the highest performer, as would Vanderbilt should they beat Tennessee and Ole Miss). Note, neither of those outcomes is likely, but both are possible. Note also, a 2 game over-performance is only marginally above normal.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, at some point the hand wringing is just an emotional over-reaction. UT and Vanderbilt have currently played 4 common opponents. Tennessee went 3-1. Vanderbilt went 1-3. Missouri is marginally more talented than Vanderbilt, the second least talented team in the SEC, and they beat Vanderbilt. Vandy isn't some sort of juggernaut that is likely to win against UT. They *could* win against UT, but there is no indicator that should favor Vanderbilt. It's like saying you *could* die getting your tonsils removed, but it isn't likely (though it's extremely devastating when you are the patient that dies).

That said, UT has two more games. Generally the more talented team has a 70% chance of winning. That means that UT only has a 49% chance of winning both. Before kickoff against Kentucky, UT had a 70% chance of winning three games, but only a 34% chance of winning all three. The odds are getting better with each game played, obviously.

Finally, note that Florida has a 70% chance of losing to LSU.

Be careful what you wish for Vols fans, you just might get it.

 

[beneVOLence]

7 SEC games this week.

Talent predicted 5 (71%).

On the season, talent has predicted 68% of the games correctly.

View attachment 123389

Georgia closed out the season with a big upset win, but Kirby Smart's first year in the SEC will go down as the largest under-performance in conference for 2016 (and, 1 game away from the -4 game threshold that is the number that gets most coaches not named Muschamp fired). LSU and Ole Miss could tie this performance if they lost their remaining games. Unlikely.

Kentucky closed out it's 4th SEC season under Shoops with another devastating loss to the Vols. When the dust settles they have a real shot at being the largest over-performance in the SEC (If Arkansas beats both Missouri and Miss St they would jump Kentucky as the highest performer, as would Vanderbilt should they beat Tennessee and Ole Miss). Note, neither of those outcomes is likely, but both are possible. Note also, a 2 game over-performance is only marginally above normal.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, at some point the hand wringing is just an emotional over-reaction. UT and Vanderbilt have currently played 4 common opponents. Tennessee went 3-1. Vanderbilt went 1-3. Missouri is marginally more talented than Vanderbilt, the second least talented team in the SEC, and they beat Vanderbilt. Vandy isn't some sort of juggernaut that is likely to win against UT. They *could* win against UT, but there is no indicator that should favor Vanderbilt. It's like saying you *could* die getting your tonsils removed, but it isn't likely (though it's extremely devastating when you are the patient that dies).

That said, UT has two more games. Generally the more talented team has a 70% chance of winning. That means that UT only has a 49% chance of winning both. Before kickoff against Kentucky, UT had a 70% chance of winning three games, but only a 34% chance of winning all three. The odds are getting better with each game played, obviously.

Finally, note that Florida has a 70% chance of losing to LSU.

Be careful what you wish for Vols fans, you just might get it.

So Georgia was predicted to win the East with a 7-1 record and they sit at 4-4. OUCH! We were predicted to finish tied with Florida for second in the East with 5-3 records. We are currently on track and Florida is currently 5-2 with LSU predicted to win to make them 5-3. Interesting how this works.

 

[rocytop2624]

7 SEC games this week.

Talent predicted 5 (71%).

On the season, talent has predicted 68% of the games correctly.

View attachment 123389

Georgia closed out the season with a big upset win, but Kirby Smart's first year in the SEC will go down as the largest under-performance in conference for 2016 (and, 1 game away from the -4 game threshold that is the number that gets most coaches not named Muschamp fired). LSU and Ole Miss could tie this performance if they lost their remaining games. Unlikely.

Kentucky closed out it's 4th SEC season under Shoops with another devastating loss to the Vols. When the dust settles they have a real shot at being the largest over-performance in the SEC (If Arkansas beats both Missouri and Miss St they would jump Kentucky as the highest performer, as would Vanderbilt should they beat Tennessee and Ole Miss). Note, neither of those outcomes is likely, but both are possible. Note also, a 2 game over-performance is only marginally above normal.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, at some point the hand wringing is just an emotional over-reaction. UT and Vanderbilt have currently played 4 common opponents. Tennessee went 3-1. Vanderbilt went 1-3. Missouri is marginally more talented than Vanderbilt, the second least talented team in the SEC, and they beat Vanderbilt. Vandy isn't some sort of juggernaut that is likely to win against UT. They *could* win against UT, but there is no indicator that should favor Vanderbilt. It's like saying you *could* die getting your tonsils removed, but it isn't likely (though it's extremely devastating when you are the patient that dies).

That said, UT has two more games. Generally the more talented team has a 70% chance of winning. That means that UT only has a 49% chance of winning both. Before kickoff against Kentucky, UT had a 70% chance of winning three games, but only a 34% chance of winning all three. The odds are getting better with each game played, obviously.

Finally, note that Florida has a 70% chance of losing to LSU.

Be careful what you wish for Vols fans, you just might get it.

It makes no sense to me that some fans would rather not win the sec east and go to the sec championship game the team has earned it and as long as you play the game you have a chance to win.

 

[daj2576]

It makes no sense to me that some fans would rather not win the sec east and go to the sec championship game the team has earned it and as long as you play the game you have a chance to win.

From the beginning of the season I have taken the position that UT is certainly not a playoff contender, but could be in the SEC championship with luck. That was before a rash of injuries to key players.

With two weeks to go we are still in the hunt. I can make a viable argument that going and losing badly is worse than not going at all insofar as our fan perception, national perception, bowl bids, and momentum heading into recruiting. Of course, all of that is trumped by a very unlikely victory (but if you don't go, you don't have that chance). Either way, there are some significant risks that either going to the SEC championship, or not going to the SEC championship game, brings to a tumultuous off season. That is my point.

 

[maotai]

Does the bucket ever get heavy?

 

[daj2576]

Does the bucket ever get heavy?

Huh?