Let's Face It!

#28
#28
Tennessee really only needs two things to happen:

ACC only having one undefeated or 1-loss team: Likely

Notre Dame having another loss: Not as likely

And that GUARANTEES a playoff spot if they win out. Notre Dame is the Irish in the ointment. They have two current top 10 losses and one good win but they have an extremely soft schedule the rest of the way. Right now, you can pencil in these teams

Texas A&M (Would have to lose 3 times in final four or five games)
Georgia (even if they lose to Ga Tech they're in)
Ohio State (Just lock it in)
Oregon (Just lock it in)
Indiana (Just lock it in)
ACC Winner
B12 Winner
G5 Winner

Eight spots. Bama looks good but DeBoer's road woes and that FSU loss could be a factor. Ole Miss doesn't have a bad loss yet but their schedule/point differential is WEAK. Texas Tech losing helped. Miami losing helped.

What would absolutely suck is if BYU or Georgia Tech go undefeated and then lose their conference title game.
 
#29
#29
everybody-panic.gif
 
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#30
#30
Wrangler95 said:
I don't believe even if we win out I don't think we get in the playoffs, so much would have to happen and fall in place for Tennessee.Citrus or Outback Bowl is best we can hope for, just being realistic.
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Tend to agree with you however, if I were to give in to such a theory, there is no sense turning on the tube this Saturday night, is there? Why watch/root/yell/scream if we know we are headed to the Bluebonnet Bowl, right?

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#31
#31
Wrangler95 said:
I don't believe even if we win out I don't think we get in the playoffs, so much would have to happen and fall in place for Tennessee.Citrus or Outback Bowl is best we can hope for, just being realistic.
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Remember "You can't spell Citrus without U.T."? ..................... from that day on, every time that I heard the word "citrus" I would cuss under my breath and spit.
 
#32
#32
OrangeBeachVol said:
Think we are not getting much respect right now is because we have not beat anybody good and ranked. Winning out would change that narrative. Beating a ranked OK and Vandy plus UF on the road should do that. Lets see where we are ranked when the playoff poll is released soon.
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This argument drives me crazy because there are several teams above us that have not beaten anyone good and ranked either. Why do we hold our team to standards that clearly others who you say are better are NOT MEETING!
 
#33
#33
landscapingvol said:
That's not even remotely true, the SEC and Big 10 will get four teams each into the playoff. As it stands right now Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss are in. The only thing that has to happen for Tennessee to get in is for Ole Miss to lose another game or for 5 SEC teams to get in. Obviously, Tennessee has to win out or it's irrelevant, but the pool for playoff teams in other conferences continues to shrink. The only "lock" in the ACC is Miami at the moment. The only "lock" in the Big 12 is Texas Tech and they have a loss. The Big 10 has two locks but then they have a bunch of ok teams like Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan, and USC. The PAC 12 is abysmal. Notre Dame is by far the most likely at large team and it's not close. Certainly some things have to happen including Tennessee finding a defense but they have a pretty good shot IF they win out. Michigan still has to play OSU, Iowa would probably have to win the BIG as would USC, Oregon and Nebraska could easily drop another game neither have looked great lately. It's possible Miami could lose the ACC championship but outside of SMU the ACC is pretty below average. The pool of at large bids is starting to dwindle rapidly
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I don't see the Big 10 getting four this year - OSU, Oregon and Indiana are probably it for them. Michigan is the fourth team - they are ranked 21 behind 8 SEC teams. Yes if they won out and beat OSU, they would make a jump - but they would also need less impressive wins by other teams.

I fully expect the SEC to get 4 and possibly 5 teams - unless there are upsets in the other conference games to take the 5th away.
 
#34
#34
We need the ones to play to keep winning before we play them....We need the P4 teams we beat to start winning.....The 4 teams we beat are 1-17 in conference and a combined 11-21. Don't care what folks say....that will hurt us with the committee unless things change. And of course we have to win them all....1 more loss and we are off to a participation bowl.
 
#35
#35
Tnphil said:
We need the ones to play to keep winning before we play them....We need the P4 teams we beat to start winning.....The 4 teams we beat are 1-17 in conference and a combined 11-21. Don't care what folks say....that will hurt us with the committee unless things change. And of course we have to win them all....1 more loss and we are off to a participation bowl.
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Just stop! Do the comparison to other teams above us.

Some of you are just looking for reasons to disrespect the Vols!
 
#38
#38
modernVol said:
Ohio State (Big Ten auto)
Alabama (SEC auto)
Georgia Tech (ACC auto)
Texas Tech (Big 12 auto)
Navy/5th best conference champ (auto)

6. Indiana
7. Texas A&M
8. Georgia
9. Oregon
10. Ole Miss
11. Miami
12. Notre Dame
13. Tennessee

If any of the following happens, Tennessee would be in playoff at 10-2:

Georgia Tech reg season loss (UGA) + ACC CG loss, OR Miami reg season loss

Ole Miss loss

Notre Dame loss

The only team that could jump Tennessee even if winning our would be Texas, but they would have to also win out (Vandy, @GA, A&M).

Definitely 90%+ chance per current odds
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Pitt is probably the only chance Notre Dame has to lose. We need to channel the spirit of Johnny Majors to help Pitt get that W for us. If Notre Dame stays at 2 losse, they’ll have the 2 best losses of anyone, especially if Miami stays at 1 loss and aTm stays undefeated or 1 loss. I’d like to think UGA will beat GT and then Miami will take care of them in the ACC title game. This is assuming UVA doesn’t win out and make it to the title game . UVA making the CFP instead of us would be an absolute joke, but it could happen.
 
#42
#42
modernVol said:
Ohio State (Big Ten auto)
Alabama (SEC auto)
Georgia Tech (ACC auto)
Texas Tech (Big 12 auto)
Navy/5th best conference champ (auto)

6. Indiana
7. Texas A&M
8. Georgia
9. Oregon
10. Ole Miss
11. Miami
12. Notre Dame
13. Tennessee

If any of the following happens, Tennessee would be in playoff at 10-2:

Georgia Tech reg season loss (UGA) + ACC CG loss, OR Miami reg season loss

Ole Miss loss

Notre Dame loss

The only team that could jump Tennessee even if winning our would be Texas, but they would have to also win out (Vandy, @GA, A&M).

Definitely 90%+ chance per current odds
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Exactly right!

Remaining schedules of the teams you mentioned plus Oregon who I think Tennessee could also jump if they lose one of their remaining games.

Oregon
@ Iowa (6-2)
vs. Minnesota (5-3)
vs. 23. USC (5-2)
@ Washington (6-2)

Georgia Tech
@ NC State (4-4)
@ Boston College (1-7)
vs. Pitt (6-2)
vs. 5. Georgia (6-1)

Miami
@ SMU (5-3)
vs. Syracuse (3-5)
vs. NC State (4-4)
@ Virginia Tech (3-5)
@ Pitt (6-2)

Ole Miss
vs. South Carolina (3-5)
vs. The Citadel (3-5)
vs. Florida (3-4)
@ Mississippi State (4-4)

Notre Dame
@ Boston College (1-7)
vs. Navy (7-0)
@ Pitt (6-2)
vs. Syracuse (3-5)
@ Stanford (3-5)
 
#44
#44
zjcvols said:
Tennessee really only needs two things to happen:

ACC only having one undefeated or 1-loss team: Likely

Notre Dame having another loss: Not as likely

And that GUARANTEES a playoff spot if they win out. Notre Dame is the Irish in the ointment. They have two current top 10 losses and one good win but they have an extremely soft schedule the rest of the way. Right now, you can pencil in these teams

Texas A&M (Would have to lose 3 times in final four or five games)
Georgia (even if they lose to Ga Tech they're in)
Ohio State (Just lock it in)
Oregon (Just lock it in)
Indiana (Just lock it in)
ACC Winner
B12 Winner
G5 Winner

Eight spots. Bama looks good but DeBoer's road woes and that FSU loss could be a factor. Ole Miss doesn't have a bad loss yet but their schedule/point differential is WEAK. Texas Tech losing helped. Miami losing helped.

What would absolutely suck is if BYU or Georgia Tech go undefeated and then lose their conference title game.
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I think we get the nod over Notre Dame if we are both 10-2. Notre Dame's only decent wins would be over USC and Pitt. USC is likely to have at least 3 and maybe four losses. Pitt would have a minimum of three losses and would be five if they don't beat GT or Miami. If Pitt did beat one or both of those teams, it would help us anyway.
Texas A&M would only have to lose twice to fall behind us. Notre Dame would be their best win. If they were to lose twice, it would likely have to be to Mizzou with a third string QB and Texas who will likely have at least 3 losses.
Georgia Tech hasn't even played a good team yet, much less beat one. If they lose to Georgia, which is likely, their only shot is to win the ACC. 10-2 Tennessee would get in over 11-2 if they lost the ACCCG.
My only real concern with the ACC getting two teams in is if Georgia Tech and either Virginia or Louisville make the championship game and Miami wins out.
I do agree with the general point of your post, though.
 
#46
#46
zjcvols said:
Tennessee really only needs two things to happen:

ACC only having one undefeated or 1-loss team: Likely

Notre Dame having another loss: Not as likely

And that GUARANTEES a playoff spot if they win out. Notre Dame is the Irish in the ointment. They have two current top 10 losses and one good win but they have an extremely soft schedule the rest of the way. Right now, you can pencil in these teams

Texas A&M (Would have to lose 3 times in final four or five games)
Georgia (even if they lose to Ga Tech they're in)
Ohio State (Just lock it in)
Oregon (Just lock it in)
Indiana (Just lock it in)
ACC Winner
B12 Winner
G5 Winner

Eight spots. Bama looks good but DeBoer's road woes and that FSU loss could be a factor. Ole Miss doesn't have a bad loss yet but their schedule/point differential is WEAK. Texas Tech losing helped. Miami losing helped.

What would absolutely suck is if BYU or Georgia Tech go undefeated and then lose their conference title game.
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Oregon is a lock if they win out or win the BIG but that is from a given. They haven’t beaten and really haven’t played anyone. Another loss and they are far from a lock.
 
#47
#47
IndianaVol said:
We win out, we have the best amount of wins against ranked teams than any other 2 loss team...we are in when we win out.
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This is not true.

We have no wins against ranked teams currently. If we beat Oklahoma and Vandy, we'll have a total of two.

Texas also has two losses. If they win out, they'll have a total of 4 ranked wins.
Missouri has two losses. If they win out, they'll have a total of 2 ranked wins.
If both Texas and Missouri win out, that would also put Texas A&M as a two-loss team with a total of 2 ranked wins.
If Miami loses in the ACC championship game, they'll have two losses and 2 wins over ranked teams.

To say Tennessee would have the most wins vs. ranked teams is false. We would be battling with all of the above for an at-large bid.
 
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#48
#48
Winning out is the challenge, not getting in. Winning out will put us in the playoffs. There’s a lot of football left and the SEC will continue to cannabilize itself. It will work out, but you’ve gotta get there first.
 
#49
#49
Wrangler95 said:
I don't believe even if we win out I don't think we get in the playoffs, so much would have to happen and fall in place for Tennessee.Citrus or Outback Bowl is best we can hope for, just being realistic.
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ESPN's playoff predictor lists us with a 90% chance of making the playoffs if we win our remaining games. That certainly won't be easy, but we can still do it.
 
#50
#50
landscapingvol said:
That's not even remotely true, the SEC and Big 10 will get four teams each into the playoff. As it stands right now Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss are in. The only thing that has to happen for Tennessee to get in is for Ole Miss to lose another game or for 5 SEC teams to get in. Obviously, Tennessee has to win out or it's irrelevant, but the pool for playoff teams in other conferences continues to shrink. The only "lock" in the ACC is Miami at the moment. The only "lock" in the Big 12 is Texas Tech and they have a loss. The Big 10 has two locks but then they have a bunch of ok teams like Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan, and USC. The PAC 12 is abysmal. Notre Dame is by far the most likely at large team and it's not close. Certainly some things have to happen including Tennessee finding a defense but they have a pretty good shot IF they win out. Michigan still has to play OSU, Iowa would probably have to win the BIG as would USC, Oregon and Nebraska could easily drop another game neither have looked great lately. It's possible Miami could lose the ACC championship but outside of SMU the ACC is pretty below average. The pool of at large bids is starting to dwindle rapidly
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If only we would have beaten Ga and won out it would bea sure thing. Our schedule playing the worst teams in the sec will hurt us. Plus we struggled against most of the sorry teams we played. That’s the perception.
 
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