Latest Todd McShay projections for Vol prospects

[AboveAllNations]

This afternoon, Adam Schefter tweeted a photo of a "big board" Todd McShay made displaying his NFL draft projections by position and round:

If you zoom in on the image, you can see where McShay thinks our Vols will get picked:

• Derek Barnett (early 1st round, #3 overall DE)
• Alvin Kamara (mid 2nd round, #4 overall RB)
• Josh Dobbs (early 3rd round, #5 overall QB)
• Cam Sutton (mid 3rd round, #13 overall CB)
• Josh Malone (early 4th round, #15 overall WR)

Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Corey Vereen aren't listed on the board. FYI.

 

[Burger]

McShay is quite the vol homer.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

This afternoon, Adam Schefter tweeted a photo of a "big board" Todd McShay made displaying his NFL draft projections by position and round:

If you zoom in on the image, you can see where McShay thinks our Vols will get picked:

• Derek Barnett (early 1st round, #3 overall DE)
• Alvin Kamara (mid 2nd round, #4 overall RB)
• Josh Dobbs (early 3rd round, #5 overall QB)
• Cam Sutton (mid 3rd round, #13 overall CB)
• Josh Malone (early 4th round, #15 overall WR)

Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Corey Vereen aren't listed on the board. FYI.

For the record these are not projections of where they are gonna be drafted. These are actual draft grades. For example, when you look at the top QBs, you'll see Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky are in the 2nd round. No one expects them to fall to the 2nd round. Both will get drafted in the 1st round even though they have 2nd round grades.

This bodes well for Dobbs cause if he's getting mostly 3rd round grades from NFL teams, then he's almost certainly assured of going in the 2nd round cause all the QBs with 2nd round are most likely going in the 1st round.

 

[BearCat204]

For the record these are not projections of where they are gonna be drafted. These are actual draft grades. For example, when you look at the top QBs, you'll see Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky are in the 2nd round. No one expects them to fall to the 2nd round. Both will get drafted in the 1st round even though they have 2nd round grades.

This bodes well for Dobbs cause if he's getting mostly 3rd round grades from NFL teams, then he's almost certainly assured of going in the 2nd round cause all the QBs with 2nd round are most likely going in the 1st round.

I don't even know why you are looking at his board, you have already babbled about McShay being an idiot and not knowing what he is doing. I am still baffled that you don't have people blowing up your phone wanting your draft board.

 

[VolnJC]

Would have been a good time for a junior center to come out early..only 4 on the entire board.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I don't even know why you are looking at his board, you have already babbled about McShay being an idiot and not knowing what he is doing. I am still baffled that you don't have people blowing up your phone wanting your draft board.

McShay is improving little by little. I'm just putting an olive branch out there for him.

 

[VolBricks]

So if everyone is moving up a round versus their actual draft grades then what happens to the ones with first round grades? They go in round 0?

 

[Biopsyman]

No Mo Couch?

 

[AboveAllNations]

For the record these are not projections of where they are gonna be drafted. These are actual draft grades. For example, when you look at the top QBs, you'll see Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky are in the 2nd round. No one expects them to fall to the 2nd round. Both will get drafted in the 1st round even though they have 2nd round grades.

This bodes well for Dobbs cause if he's getting mostly 3rd round grades from NFL teams, then he's almost certainly assured of going in the 2nd round cause all the QBs with 2nd round are most likely going in the 1st round.

Thanks for the clarification, I think you're right about this being McShay's subjective draft "grades." I'm not so sure that helps Dobbs too much though, because more recent mock drafts are projecting teams to wait on Watson and Trubisky until the mid-to-late first round, if at all. As McShay's evaluations indicate, there's a big cluster of about 7 "good-but-not-great" QB prospects in this draft (including Dobbs) with 2nd-to-3rd round grades that could depress the value of the position. If you're a team like the Jets or Browns, for example, it makes far more sense to grab a Pro Bowl-caliber player elsewhere in the 1st and get one of the good-not-great QBs later than reach for one of those comparably "good" QBs in the first round.

I hope I'm wrong, but the depth of QBs this year will hurt Dobbs, not help him, in my opinion.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

So if everyone is moving up a round versus their actual draft grades then what happens to the ones with first round grades? They go in round 0?

Typically there are only 15 or so prospects you have first round grades each year. Its not that everyone goes up a round it's just that guys fill in the spots that are left vacant cause there are rarely 32 players with first round grades.

First round grade means instant starter with the potential to be a pro-bowler.

 

[BearCat204]

McShay is improving little by little. I'm just putting an olive branch out there for him.

You are certifiable

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Thanks for the clarification, I think you're right about this being McShay's subjective draft "grades." I'm not so sure that helps Dobbs too much though, because more recent mock drafts are projecting teams to wait on Watson and Trubisky until the mid-to-late first round, if at all. As McShay's evaluations indicate, there's a big cluster of about 7 "good-but-not-great" QB prospects in this draft (including Dobbs) with 2nd-to-3rd round grades that could depress the value of the position. If you're a team like the Jets or Browns, for example, it makes far more sense to grab a Pro Bowl-caliber player elsewhere in the 1st and get one of the good-not-great QBs later than reach for one of those comparably "good" QBs in the first round.

I hope I'm wrong, but the depth of QBs this year will hurt Dobbs, not help him, in my opinion.

You could be right. There are two narratives going around right now. One narrative is the one you suggested. That the teams that are desperate for QBs will pass on QBs early cause there are better players available at others positions and then look to fill their need at QB in the 2nd-3rd round.

But I've also heard an opposing narrative that at least 4 QBs (Trubisky, Watson, Kizer, and Mahomes) will go in the first round and maybe even fifth with Davis Webb getting a lot of buzz lately.

 

[08Vol]

So if everyone is moving up a round versus their actual draft grades then what happens to the ones with first round grades? They go in round 0?

Teams draft on a mix of need and value. McShay lists them based only on value. Teams also watch draft trends and that influences where players are taken. If a surprise team takes LF7 then the teams that really need a RB may use earlier picks on a RB b/c they are worried the ones they like won't be there when they draft in the next round.

 

[AboveAllNations]

Teams draft on a mix of need and value. McShay lists them based only on value. Teams also watch draft trends and that influences where players are taken. If a surprise team takes LF7 then the teams that really need a RB may use earlier picks on a RB b/c they are worried the ones they like won't be there when they draft in the next round.

Yep. I suspect that NFL GMs draft similar to how experts do it fantasy football, where you group prospects into similar "tiers" and always make sure you don't miss out on the last prospect from a needed position in the same tier.

Going from McShay's board, if I'm a QB-needy team hunting for value I'll grab somebody else with my first two picks and maybe even my third, as long as a few guys from the group of seven "good-not-great" QBs are left. You also have to identify other QB-needy teams and guess who they might pick.

 

[Rudy123]

McShay is quite the vol homer.

With all of the predictions that come each year prior to the draft, it is seldom that any are accurate. The exception is the selection of the first 3 or 4 picks.
After the 4th pick, then it is all up in the air. So called experts can say anything but often times teams do not show their hand and purposely confuse other executives or general managers.
I am not any kind of draft guru but I see Dobbs as a 6th rounder in a weak q.b. class. I see Malone in the 7th round, but he will be able to make a teams roster.
Kamara will be a 2nd rounder because these days, it is seldom that a team selects a back in the 1st round.
Barnett will be a 1st rounder because teams are always looking for someone to get a sack on a 3rd and long yardage play.
Not sure when Sutton will be selected but it won't be during the 1st or 2nd round.

 

[OrngeJuiceJones]

Kiper just called Kamara a double bogey NFL pick. Most overrated. Kiper IMO is wrong more than not lately, and I honestly can't stand him.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

With all of the predictions that come each year prior to the draft, it is seldom that any are accurate. The exception is the selection of the first 3 or 4 picks.
After the 4th pick, then it is all up in the air. So called experts can say anything but often times teams do not show their hand and purposely confuse other executives or general managers.
I am not any kind of draft guru but I see Dobbs as a 6th rounder in a weak q.b. class. I see Malone in the 7th round, but he will be able to make a teams roster.
Kamara will be a 2nd rounder because these days, it is seldom that a team selects a back in the 1st round.
Barnett will be a 1st rounder because teams are always looking for someone to get a sack on a 3rd and long yardage play.
Not sure when Sutton will be selected but it won't be during the 1st or 2nd round.

You're right early in the process but at this point the draft boards around the league are getting finalized so the information is getting more reliable.

If Dobbs is being projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder RIGHT NOW he'll most likely go in that range on draft day cause the process is coming to an end. And FYI guys like Kiper and McShay are paid to tell us where these guys are going to be drafted.

 

[Dougie_D]

For the record these are not projections of where they are gonna be drafted. These are actual draft grades. For example, when you look at the top QBs, you'll see Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky are in the 2nd round. No one expects them to fall to the 2nd round. Both will get drafted in the 1st round even though they have 2nd round grades.

This bodes well for Dobbs cause if he's getting mostly 3rd round grades from NFL teams, then he's almost certainly assured of going in the 2nd round cause all the QBs with 2nd round are most likely going in the 1st round.

No.. its by tiers. Dobbs is 5th in his list. But Dobbs isn't in the first tier. He's in the 2nd tier of QBs. Basically he's predicting that those 4 QBs will be selected before Dobbs is mentioned among Dobbs tier. The rounds are used to predict needs for teams. The fact that he only has top QBs in 2nd means he's predicting the higher teams are not gambling with a rookie to start. If a QB gets drafted in first round, it will be a lower seeded team (27-32).
If no QB gets selected in first round, Dobbs might slip down to round 5

 

[Dougie_D]

Also it's a domino effect by position. 3 guys are ahead of Kamara in the RB group but all 3 are first rounders. Kamara is a tier all by himself. If ALL 3 get taken by 15th pick, I would almost say he'd be picked 1st round but it's a guarantee 2nd rounder.

Barnett is top 3 first tier first round. Notice why some names are clumped together and some are not. That basically means teams will draft that same position closer to each other. Like last years draft, Goff and Wentz were together.. not spaced out. Which means when the DEs start getting called out, they'll be drafted almost 1 by 1

 

[VolDaddy61]

This afternoon, Adam Schefter tweeted a photo of a "big board" Todd McShay made displaying his NFL draft projections by position and round:

If you zoom in on the image, you can see where McShay thinks our Vols will get picked:

• Derek Barnett (early 1st round, #3 overall DE)
• Alvin Kamara (mid 2nd round, #4 overall RB)
• Josh Dobbs (early 3rd round, #5 overall QB)
• Cam Sutton (mid 3rd round, #13 overall CB)
• Josh Malone (early 4th round, #15 overall WR)

Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Corey Vereen aren't listed on the board. FYI.

JRM will be a steal.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

No.. its by tiers. Dobbs is 5th in his list. But Dobbs isn't in the first tier. He's in the 2nd tier of QBs. Basically he's predicting that those 4 QBs will be selected before Dobbs is mentioned among Dobbs tier. The rounds are used to predict needs for teams. The fact that he only has top QBs in 2nd means he's predicting the higher teams are not gambling with a rookie to start. If a QB gets drafted in first round, it will be a lower seeded team (27-32).
If no QB gets selected in first round, Dobbs might slip down to round 5

But that's not happening. Too many teams with QB needs. At least 2 will go in round 1. Plus if Dobbs is rated as a 3rd round prospect on most teams boards, it's highly unlikely he falls to the 5th. By the 4th round he would become a value pick and some team would try to scoop him up.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

JRM will be a steal.

I agree. But I think he falls to the 7th round.

 

[Dougie_D]

But that's not happening. Too many teams with QB needs. At least 2 will go in round 1. Plus if Dobbs is rated as a 3rd round prospect on most teams boards, it's highly unlikely he falls to the 5th. By the 4th round he would become a value pick and some team would try to scoop him up.

You have access to all the teams big boards?...

Cleveland is the team that might draft a QB that high.just because they got 2 picks.

What other teams would risk losing a top player versus a mediocre QB?

Money is an issue too. The higher the pick, the higher salary they get. NONE if these QBs are a sure thing. It looks really bad if you draft a QB in first round and he's a bust

 

[HoptownVol]

The Patriots took Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd round, that is an indication of how desperate the league is for QBs, not a measure of their talent.

 

[Dougie_D]

The Patriots took Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd round, that is an indication of how desperate the league is for QBs, not a measure of their talent.

They took him LAST year. 2016 - in 3rd round.

They took Garrapolo 3 years ago. 2014 class. 2nd round

They took Ryan Mallet 6 years ago. 2011 class 3rd round

plus whatever undrafted QB's they got. That's pretty average in NFL. Drafting a QB every 3rd year.

The NFL likes to have 3-4 QB's but usually if you are less than 4th round it's a uphill battle IMO.

The evaluation of QB's in the NFL is terrible an I really believe there is no "development"... I remember when people thought BJ-Coleman was going to be developed under Green Bay? haha!

I'm not saying that Dobbs won't be drafted, but it seems like only 2-3 will be highly picked and NFL teams already are stacked up with whatever QB's they have.