Latest ESPN FPI has Vols favorites in nine games

#52
#52
Good analysis by ESPN, but they forgot the 1) Tennessee propensity for injury and 2) CBJ in-coaching impact inputs. My model incorporates both... and spits out 7-5.
 
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#53
#53
goldvol said:
The probability of both events occurring is the product of the 2 probabilities.

Just think about it like shooting free throws. You could be a 75% shooter from the free throw line, which is good. however, if you shoot 3 free throws, you are likely to miss 1 free throw, even though you are heavily favored in each individual shot.
0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.42, or 42% to make 3 free throws in a row.
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This rule doesn't apply to mutually exclusive events.
 
#54
#54
VFLCodyGBO said:
Well Mr. Engineer, sir, while it appears you have attended a stats 201 class, you didn't read my post. That method skews the numbers by not fully representing the talent differential and the plethora of other variables. So no, there isn't a valid way to calculate that probability given only those numbers, but your probability makes the likelihood of use winning those games look much smaller than it is in reality. Which was my point, not looking to get in to a measuring contest.
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I make no claims on attempting to represent the talent differential or other variables. I am calculating the odds based on the probabilities given by ESPN, whatever variables they include in their calculation. This isn't rocket science; it's just a discussion board. And the values they give aren't completely unreasonable. So the results I give based on their probabilities are also not out of the realm of possibility. You are free to think the numbers given by ESPN are worthless. I am not trying to dispute their validity.
 
#55
#55
Freak said:
Georgia Tech (T) 50%
Indiana State (W)
Florida (L) 25%
Massachusetts (W)
Georgia (L) 40%
South Carolina (W) 60%
Alabama (L) 5%
Kentucky (W) 55%
Southern Mississippi (W)
Missouri (W) 60%
LSU (L) 20%
Vanderbilt (T) 50%
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I see only 6 games that we should win if this staff has just average coaching ability. Games I'd feel comfortable putting money on, and I don't gamble.

I think FL, UGA, LSU, and Bama are going to be tough. Realistically, lets stay we win 1 of 4. That gets us to 7 wins. The season will hinge on how we start and finish. I believe GTech & Vandy will define this season. The fact that Vandy isn't a gimme in year 5 of Jones' tenure bothers me. Lose to either or heaven forbid, both (GT & Vandy), and personally, I think Jones needs to go. I just don't see progress with a 7-5 or 8-4 season.

Lets say my prediction of 7-5 or 8-4 holds true. Can anyone reasonably say the Vols are progressing? Beating Bama and/or LSU (or any West team for that matter) is still a pipe dream and the SEC-E sucks, although UGA is rapidly amassing talent. Are we amassing talent? Nope. In fact it seems as though our talent level has peaked.

But who knows... Suppose that's why they play the games.:popcorn:
 
#56
#56
leeroyphi136 said:
This rule doesn't apply to mutually exclusive events.
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Sure it does. The events cannot occur simultaneously (mutually exclusive, as you point out), and the odds of both of them happening are less than the odds of either of them happening.

The odds of us winning 2 games back to back is less than the odds of us winning the first game or the odds of us winning the second game.
 
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#57
#57
BeardedVol said:
I don't think you quite understand how probability of independent events actually works.

If you accept the computations used to extrapolate the FPI win percentage for each game, then it's literally basic statistics, based off of those individual probabilities for each game, the likelihood of both events occurring.

Has nothing to do with factoring in talent, or anything else other than given probabilities for each game as determined by the FPI projection, the likelihood of two or more events occurring.
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Thanks for having my back there. Makes me feel like I'm not totally off base.

:pilot:
 
#58
#58
Freak said:
Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%
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I have Georgia Tech 50/50, Indiana State 100%, Florida 40%,Massachusetts 100%,Georgia 45% win, South Carolina 60%, KY 55%, SM 100% , Missouri 51%,LSU 45% , Alabama 30% , Vandy 70% 8-4 to 7-5 if there is a surprise it favors the down side. Butch coaches in 2018 50/50
 
#60
#60
Freak said:
Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%
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I thoughts the thread title was" Vol fan's favorite nine wins."

Miracle

5ot win at Bama.

2016 Florida

2016 Ga

Fl St for NC

5 or 6 OT win vs Ky, that was back when we always beat Ky.

98 Ar

Ole miss when Cut was there.

Miami at the Sugar Bowl.

8 gimmies and 4 toss ups( used loosely).

I like our chances.

Go Vols!
 
#61
#61
goldvol said:
Thanks for having my back there. Makes me feel like I'm not totally off base.

:pilot:
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Using the basics of probability Alabama only has a 35% chance of winning 10 games in a season assuming they have a 90% chance to win each game. They've done this for the past 9 straight years. That's a .008% probability given this method of calculating it. So yes. When given numeric proof I doubt numbers.
 
#62
#62
goldvol said:
According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. :pilot:
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Who are we not SUPPOSED to think we beat besides Bama?
 
#64
#64
VFLCodyGBO said:
Using the basics of probability Alabama only has a 35% chance of winning 10 games in a season assuming they have a 90% chance to win each game. They've done this for the past 9 straight years. That's a .008% probability given this method of calculating it. So yes. When given numeric proof I doubt numbers.
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So because FPI projections didn't give a very accurate projection of Alabama's actual win percentage, then the method in which that the probability of two independent evens is computed, is somehow incorrect?

You've lost me. I know math is hard for some people, but you really need to google "mathematical probability", and read about 2 pages of worth of the search results before you post on the topic again.
 
#65
#65
VFLCodyGBO said:
Using the basics of probability Alabama only has a 35% chance of winning 10 games in a season assuming they have a 90% chance to win each game. They've done this for the past 9 straight years. That's a .008% probability given this method of calculating it. So yes. When given numeric proof I doubt numbers.
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Well, first, Bama hasn't won first 10 games in a row for nine straight years. In 2015, they lost their third game, to Ole Miss. The year before that, they lost their fourth game...again to Ole Miss. In 2012, they lost their 10th game, to A&M. The year before that, they lost their 9th game, to LSU. In 2010, they lost their sixth and ninth games, to USCe and LSU, respectively.

So the realities of Bama's past nine seasons actually kind of prove that the chances you dismissed are pretty spot on. Bama's chances of winning 10 in a row for nine years running are mathematically very slim...and in real life it has never happened. So they match pretty well.

Now, if you mean winning 10 out of the 12 games in each regular season, you have to calculate that differently. That's not just .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 * .9 ... which is only a valid formula for winning 10 in a row, when they all have a 90% chance. To calculate winning 10 (or more) out of 12 is a bit more complicated....
 
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#67
#67
I don't know how useful it is to publish such precise game by game odds. It suggests a level of accuracy that isn't realistic.
 
#68
#68
p.s. Bama's chances of winning all 12 of their regular season games in 2017 are, according to FPI, about 11%. They have a less than 50% chance of winning all of the first four, against FSU, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Vandy...most of that is due to them having just a 55% chance of beating FSU, of course, but the little 0.6% chance of losing to Fresno State, 2.7% chance of losing to Colorado State, and 8.9% chance of losing to Vandy add their bits to push the overall chance of Bama running the table on those four games below even odds.

BUT, if Bama does beat FSU, their chance of winning the next three games leaps up to 88%.

Just the way it works.
 
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#70
#70
Maybe a prediction of 9-3 but 7-5 is the record we finish with. This team is inexperienced in some key areas and we can't afford to have them learn on the job in the SEC. Georgia, Florida, Alabama, LSU and USCjr are losses.
 
#71
#71
golfballs said:
I don't know how useful it is to publish such precise game by game odds. It suggests a level of accuracy that isn't realistic.
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Absolutely agree. It's a fiction born of statistical modelling. Their models should be 'finished off' with some kind of margin of error, kind of the way political polls do.

So Tennessee's chances of beating Georgia this year are 51.3%, plus or minus 4% margin of error inherent in the FPI. Or something like that.
 
#72
#72
goldvol said:
I make no claims on attempting to represent the talent differential or other variables. I am calculating the odds based on the probabilities given by ESPN, whatever variables they include in their calculation. This isn't rocket science; it's just a discussion board. And the values they give aren't completely unreasonable. So the results I give based on their probabilities are also not out of the realm of possibility. You are free to think the numbers given by ESPN are worthless. I am not trying to dispute their validity.
Click to expand...
I'm not ashamed to say it does feel a little like rocket science to me. Ha! I didn't struggle with math much, but I certainly never embraced it either.
 
#73
#73
I find the UF one to be really confusing. Butch has gone up against McElwain 2 times, in the 1st contest it took 5 4th down conversions at home along with a late long TD pass and barely wide FG for McElwain to get the win. In the 2nd contest UF's vaunted defense kept them in the game for a little over a half before crumbling.

Butch out coached McElwain in both those games, and with UF losing more talent than they are replacing I don't see that trend reversing.
 
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#75
#75
IMO

Georgia Tech (W) 60%
Indiana State (W) 99%
Florida (L) 40%
Massachusetts (W) 85%
Georgia (L) 50%
South Carolina (W) 60%
Alabama (L) 10%
Kentucky (W) 70%
Southern Mississippi (W) 99%
Missouri (W) 65%
LSU (L) 40%
Vanderbilt (W) 70.0%

7-5 or 8-4
 
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