Latest ESPN FPI has Vols favorites in nine games

#27
#27
VFL-82-JP said:
Nah, they didn't. 2016 pre-season FPI had us as underdogs against Bama, and roughly a pick'em vs A&M, Georgia and Florida, iirc. Something like that.



That's exactly right. According to the FPI, there's a 68% chance that we will win at least one of those three games.
Click to expand...

Yes they did. It's not hard to do a quick fact check.

Screen-Shot-2016-07-11-at-5.47.25-PM_gefpm5.png


https://www.seccountry.com/tennesse...nessee-in-all-12-regular-season-games-in-2016
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#30
#30
goldvol said:
The probability of both events occurring is the product of the 2 probabilities.

Just think about it like shooting free throws. You could be a 75% shooter from the free throw line, which is good. however, if you shoot 3 free throws, you are likely to miss 1 free throw, even though you are heavily favored in each individual shot.
0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.42, or 42% to make 3 free throws in a row.
Click to expand...

100% over my head!! (wish math did not mystify me so badly) What article says to my simple mind is that the confidence of winning most games is not too good. Almost gets to a "glass half full or half empty" kind of view.
Just hope the glass as observed, is half full.
 
#31
#31
savannahfan said:
100% over my head!! (wish math did not mystify me so badly) What article says to my simple mind is that the confidence of winning most games is not too good. Almost gets to a "glass half full or half empty" kind of view.
Just hope the glass as observed, is half full.
Click to expand...

It's sort of like the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads so many times in a row.

To do it once, your chances are 50%. But to do it twice, you only have a 25% chance (=.50 x .50). And so on.

So at the start of a season, even very strong teams are pretty likely to lose at least one game. But as the season goes on, and the Ws build up, the chances get better and better each week of running the table.
 
#32
#32
Good talking point, but I think we can all agree that ESPN's FPI in college football has been trash ever since they started it a couple of years ago.


Their BPI for college basketball is a lot better.


Not sure how their results can be so wildly different.
 
#33
#33
Fake statistics take away from the validity of real statistics and also from the general population's understanding of statistics and probability.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#39
#39
I doubt we win more than 7. Nothing is a given with our staff last year. Still upset at losing to USce and Candy!
 
#40
#40
goldvol said:
The probability of both events occurring is the product of the 2 probabilities.

Just think about it like shooting free throws. You could be a 75% shooter from the free throw line, which is good. however, if you shoot 3 free throws, you are likely to miss 1 free throw, even though you are heavily favored in each individual shot.
0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.42, or 42% to make 3 free throws in a row.
Click to expand...
Oh so this is what that elementary statistics class was for.
 
#42
#42
BeardedVol said:
You don't think Oline development will have any impact? It was the single biggest factor in determining both play calling and offensive production in both 2015 and 2016. If the oline has not improved by extraordinary leaps and bounds, then the QB will need to be a good of a scrambler as Dobbs.
Click to expand...

Agree and I think the progression of the cornerback position will also have a great impact on this season. Nobody really talks about it, and I am glad that Martin had a good spring, but that position really scares me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#43
#43
v011s said:
Good talking point, but I think we can all agree that ESPN's FPI in college football has been trash ever since they started it a couple of years ago.


Their BPI for college basketball is a lot better.


Not sure how their results can be so wildly different.
Click to expand...

On a game by game basis it's not great but it's probably still as good as other projections.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#45
#45
The Artful Dodger said:
Thats why, pretty much, the entire staff was changed or replaced.
Click to expand...

True. I think the jury is still out on Shoop as well. Given the injuries, and the fact that Willie Martinez was still his DB coach, he gets a bit of a pass for 2016, but if this defense is giving up record numbers to the likes of Missouri, Kentucky, USCe, and Vandy this year, then he's in trouble.
 
#46
#46
Trade Florida and Georgia results. I believe we will beat Florida may stub our toe against Georgia this year, but we will see.
 
#47
#47
goldvol said:
I don't think it does, but I am open to discuss it. As an engineer, I've had enough math to get a basic understanding of probability.

So, feel free to enlighten me with your methodology for calculating the probability of beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt based on the probabilities given.
Click to expand...


Well Mr. Engineer, sir, while it appears you have attended a stats 201 class, you didn't read my post. That method skews the numbers by not fully representing the talent differential and the plethora of other variables. So no, there isn't a valid way to calculate that probability given only those numbers, but your probability makes the likelihood of use winning those games look much smaller than it is in reality. Which was my point, not looking to get in to a measuring contest.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#48
#48
peppervol said:
With relatively few injuries and a bowl win, I agree. I'm not predicting such, but, it would be a treat and possible.
Click to expand...

I'm counting the bowl win as one of the 10 wins. We are strong where we need to be imo: Oline and Dline. Not t mention all of a sudden we have some depth in the linebacker corp. I also think we are gonna curb stomp the gators in the Swamp.
 
#50
#50
VFLCodyGBO said:
Well Mr. Engineer, sir, while it appears you have attended a stats 201 class, you didn't read my post. That method skews the numbers by not fully representing the talent differential and the plethora of other variables. So no, there isn't a valid way to calculate that probability given only those numbers, but your probability makes the likelihood of use winning those games look much smaller than it is in reality. Which was my point, not looking to get in to a measuring contest.
Click to expand...

I don't think you quite understand how probability of independent events actually works.

If you accept the computations used to extrapolate the FPI win percentage for each game, then it's literally basic statistics, based off of those individual probabilities for each game, the likelihood of both events occurring.

Has nothing to do with factoring in talent, or anything else other than given probabilities for each game as determined by the FPI projection, the likelihood of two or more events occurring.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top