Lady Vols (6 seed) Portland Regional

#1

Volstylexx

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#1
As the NCAA tournament approaches, this thread serves as the official Lady Vols Bubble Watch. As one of Volnation's resident statisticians, I will help analyze the numbers and dive into discussions, analyses, and predictions as we closely monitor teams on the bubble. Will the Lady Vols secure their 42nd consecutive spot in the NCAA tournament, or will this be the first year in the history of the Big Dance that the Lady Vols miss out?

Share your insights, cheer on your favorites, and witness every nail-biting moment down the stretch of the season. The main bubble watch will updated every Friday and Tuesday until selection Sunday on March 17th. Games of interest will be posted daily.

Where we currently stand: LAST FOUR BYES
NET ranking: 49
Current ODDS to make the NCAAs: 65%
Trending: UP (+6 lines from last release)

Lady Vol Projection 2.7.24.jpgScreenshot 2024-02-07 at 11.25.35 PM.pngScreenshot 2024-02-07 at 11.27.17 PM.png




 
#2
#2
Games of interest so far this week. We want the bolded team to win.

Minnesota vs. Michigan State (76-65 MSU wins) ✅
Maryland vs. Rutgers (67-59 Maryland wins) 🔴
Richmond vs. Rhode Island (68-49 Richmond wins) 🔴
Nebraska vs. Michigan (65 - 59 Nebraska wins) ✅
 
#4
#4
Today's matchup with Alabama could be a huge step toward securing an NCAA bid for a few reasons:

1. The computers LOVE Alabama. They're sitting at 28th in NET and the LV's winning on the road will likely jump our net 5-6 points into the mid 40's which is far more comfortable than the 49 we currently sit at.

2. Alabama is similarly positioned on the bubble one slot behind us in the last four byes category. Bama already has 4 quad-one wins, compared to LV's three. This is the only regular-season matchup with the Tide so win tonight and you have a huge leg up over a fellow bubble team.
Volstylexx’s.png
 
#5
#5
As the NCAA tournament approaches, this thread serves as the official Lady Vols Bubble Watch. As one of Volnation's resident statisticians, I will help analyze the numbers and dive into discussions, analyses, and predictions as we closely monitor teams on the bubble. Will the Lady Vols secure their 42nd consecutive spot in the NCAA tournament, or will this be the first year in the history of the Big Dance that the Lady Vols miss out?

Share your insights, cheer on your favorites, and witness every nail-biting moment down the stretch of the season. The main bubble watch will updated every Friday and Tuesday until selection Sunday on March 17th. Games of interest will be posted daily.

Where we currently stand: LAST FOUR BYES
NET ranking: 49
Current ODDS to make the NCAAs: 65%
Trending: UP (+6 lines from last release)

View attachment 618404View attachment 618405View attachment 618406
Don't need all these charts.
Lady Vols beat Alabama Vanderbilt Texas A&M Arkansas
There in.
There all in your charts so that's like a Mimi world Series like softball
Win and stay in the Winners bracket.
Lose one and Your in danger of going home.
Tennessee beats all four your chart is done.
With each loss your chart gets more business.
I'm thinking your chart is dead after Lady Vols basketball stays in the Winners bracket vs those four.
Answer coming soon.
Nice chart hope we don't needed after four games I'm banking on putting Tennessee in
 
#6
#6
Don't need all these charts.
Lady Vols beat Alabama Vanderbilt Texas A&M Arkansas
There in.
There all in your charts so that's like a Mimi world Series like softball
Win and stay in the Winners bracket.
Lose one and Your in danger of going home.
Tennessee beats all four your chart is done.
With each loss your chart gets more business.
I'm thinking your chart is dead after Lady Vols basketball stays in the Winners bracket vs those four.
Answer coming soon.
Nice chart hope we don't needed after four games I'm banking on putting Tennessee in

It wouldn't be pretty without charts. :) Win and stay in is a nice approach, but sometimes you can lose and stay in depending on what's going on around you. That's the amazing and horrifying thing about "The bubble." Just trying to put information all in one place so we can track where we currently stand, what we need to do, and what the picture looks like around us. Win out, and well... 🐮💩 and 13-3 record will make for an exciting Volnation forum. GBO! 🍊
 
#7
#7
Today's matchup with Alabama could be a huge step toward securing an NCAA bid for a few reasons:

1. The computers LOVE Alabama. They're sitting at 28th in NET and the LV's winning on the road will likely jump our net 5-6 points into the mid 40's which is far more comfortable than the 49 we currently sit at.

2. Alabama is similarly positioned on the bubble one slot behind us in the last four byes category. Bama already has 4 quad-one wins, compared to LV's three. This is the only regular-season matchup with the Tide so win tonight and you have a huge leg up over a fellow bubble team.
View attachment 618409
True big game where are you getting those odds?
Or are they yours
Yes go Vols I
 
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#8
#8
True big game where are you getting those odds?
Or are they yours
Yes go Vols I

I'm a statistician by trade. If I need street cred, ask @chuckiepoo and @knoxvol52 They can attest to my stats work in the baseball forum, where I spent all of last season fighting with Negavols who said Vols wouldn't even make the SEC tournament, much less the NCAAs. I argued the stats suggested we were a 2nd-weekend team.. and we ended up in the World Series. Stats can help tell the larger picture, so feel free to have folks join in the discussion, and analyzing. When Lady Vols trends towards "safely in" we will change the direction of the thread to "seed analyses."
 
#9
#9
I'm a statistician by trade. If I need street cred, ask @chuckiepoo and @knoxvol52 They can attest to my stats work in the baseball forum, where I spent all of last season fighting with Negavols who said Vols wouldn't even make the SEC tournament, much less the NCAAs. I argued the stats suggested we were a 2nd-weekend team.. and we ended up in the World Series. Stats can help tell the larger picture, so feel free to have folks join in the discussion, and analyzing. When Lady Vols trends towards "safely in" we will change the direction of the thread to "seed analyses."
I am flattered…. 🤣😇
 
#12
#12
TN is 14-7 with 7 games left:
ALA
ARK
SC
Vandy
LSU
TAMU
SC

3 hard games; SCx2, LSU
2 very winnable games Ark, TAMU
2 ulterior motive games: ALA (it makes their season to ruin ours) Vandy (their chance to prove they're legitimate will be by beating the LV's).

I see us winning four
1 of 3
2 of 2
1 of 2

18-10
Barely in,,,that said, there is no room for an added loss
 
#13
#13
TN is 14-7 with 7 games left:
ALA
ARK
SC
Vandy
LSU
TAMU
SC

3 hard games; SCx2, LSU
2 very winnable games Ark, TAMU
2 ulterior motive games: ALA (it makes their season to ruin ours) Vandy (their chance to prove they're legitimate will be by beating the LV's).

I see us winning four
1 of 3
2 of 2
1 of 2

18-10
Barely in,,,that said, there is no room for an added loss
* early exit from SECT or play on is another knock or positive depending how the next 7 play out.
 
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#15
#15
Not a hard puzzle. 19-11 (or anything with 19 wins) is likely safe, 18-11 is flirting with history, and 17-11 (or 17-12, if you will) will make history. Anything less than 18 wins is cooked.
 
#16
#16
TN is 14-7 with 7 games left:
ALA
ARK
SC
Vandy
LSU
TAMU
SC

3 hard games; SCx2, LSU
2 very winnable games Ark, TAMU
2 ulterior motive games: ALA (it makes their season to ruin ours) Vandy (their chance to prove they're legitimate will be by beating the LV's).

I see us winning four
1 of 3
2 of 2
1 of 2

18-10
Barely in,,,that said, there is no room for an added loss
IM sticking what I said before Georgia
18-10 as the worst going into SEC tournament.
With possibility of getting Anthony win in Knoxville in the hard games.
 
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#17
#17
Don't need all these charts.
Lady Vols beat Alabama Vanderbilt Texas A&M Arkansas
There in.
There all in your charts so that's like a Mimi world Series like softball
Win and stay in the Winners bracket.
Lose one and Your in danger of going home.
Tennessee beats all four your chart is done.
With each loss your chart gets more business.
I'm thinking your chart is dead after Lady Vols basketball stays in the Winners bracket vs those four.
Answer coming soon.
Nice chart hope we don't needed after four games I'm banking on putting Tennessee in
English and proofreading are our friends
 
#22
#22
Back to last 4 in or first 4 out?

Won't drop any lower than the last 4 in. Tonight's game won't have much impact on their current standing. Still, about 65% odds of making it per the numbers. It does move Monday's matchup against Arkansas into "Must Win" territory. We can't go into SC/LSU needing a win. We have to get them elsewhere.
 
#24
#24
As the NCAA tournament approaches, this thread serves as the official Lady Vols Bubble Watch. As one of Volnation's resident statisticians, I will help analyze the numbers and dive into discussions, analyses, and predictions as we closely monitor teams on the bubble. Will the Lady Vols secure their 42nd consecutive spot in the NCAA tournament, or will this be the first year in the history of the Big Dance that the Lady Vols miss out?

Share your insights, cheer on your favorites, and witness every nail-biting moment down the stretch of the season. The main bubble watch will updated every Friday and Tuesday until selection Sunday on March 17th. Games of interest will be posted daily.

Where we currently stand: LAST FOUR BYES
NET ranking: 49
Current ODDS to make the NCAAs: 65%
Trending: UP (+6 lines from last release)

View attachment 618404View attachment 618405View attachment 618406
You the man! 🫵

IMG_6121.gif
 
#25
#25
Here is what it looks like need to win home games versus Texas A&M and Arkansas and might get in as a 10 or 11 seed. Beat Vandy as well on the road more like a 10 seed. Win any of the others like one of them 8 seed all three could get you all the way to a five or six seed. If we just win the two home games going to be a close call as far as the tourney. If we win those two and Vandy were in as a low seed. Any other win puts us in and of course winning in the tourney at least one game is certainly needed.
 

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