Ken Pom SEC Tournament Chances

#1
Shaun1985

Shaun1985

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2009
Messages
9,143
Likes
2,204
#1
Didn't see this posted....if so, merge.

Screen-Shot-2014-03-10-at-11.22.44-AM.png


This looks about right. We are the better team (on paper) against anyone not named Florida and obviously been playing like that the past few games. Ken Pom also list Jordan McRae as his current conference POY and there is only a 13% chance of a bid stealer (as long as Ark and UT get at large bids)

Here is the link to view the rest of the conference tournaments. Also shows BE has best chance to steal bids.

the kenpom.com blog
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#4
#4
Pat Forde predicts Vols win the SECT, clearly he doesn't care about our history in the SECT lol.

Y! SPORTS


Minutes pick: Tennessee (27). This is an admitted psycho selection. The Volunteers haven't won the SEC tourney since 1979 and have rarely come close, no matter how good they were. But that can't go on forever, can it? Tennessee closed the regular season with a rush, winning four straight – the last three by at least 27 points. And they'll be more motivated than potential semifinal opponent Florida, which will be far more concerned with the NCAAs.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
#5
#5
It's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. We might be able to steal a game against Florida because they might be looking forward the big tourney.
 
#8
#8
Last year, Ken Pom had Florida winning it all at over 70%. Mizzou, UK and UT had less than a 10% chance of winning it (all three of those lost in the quarters) but comparing last year to this year, we have a higher probability to beat Florida in our game and then win the SECT (same path as last season)
 
#10
#10
an average of the two:
Team - R1 - Quarter - Semis - Final - Champ
UF - 100.00 - 100.00 - 86.12 - 60.08 - 44.79
UK - 100.00 - 100.00 - 74.28 - 57.57 - 24.60
Tennessee - 100.00 - 100.00 - 69.43 - 27.38 - 16.96
Arkansas - 100.00 - 76.20 - 27.22 - 7.85 - 3.75
UGA - 100.00 - 100.00 - 54.36 - 16.36 - 3.17
LSU - 100.00 - 54.48 - 14.99 - 8.43 - 1.86
Ole Miss - 100.00 - 60.97 - 29.80 - 8.28 - 1.55
Mizzou - 100.00 - 68.31 - 11.35 - 3.88 - 1.53
Bama - 100.00 - 45.52 - 10.78 - 5.63 - 1.15
Vandy - 75.94 - 34.10 - 14.81 - 3.59 - 0.58
TAMU - 100.00 - 31.69 - 2.49 - 0.51 - 0.11
Auburn - 51.24 - 12.54 - 1.80 - 0.23 - 0.05
USC - 48.77 - 11.27 - 1.56 - 0.19 - 0.04
Miss St - 24.07 - 4.94 - 1.04 - 0.10 - 0.01
 
#11
#11
I'll be a homer:

Game 1: Auburn over South Carolina
Game 2: Vanderbilt over Miss State

Game 3: Mizzou over Texas A&M
Game 4: Arkansas over Auburn
Game 5: LSU over Alabama
Game 6: Ole Miss over Vanderbilt

Game 7: Florida over Mizzou
Game 8: Tennessee over Arkansas
Game 9: Kentucky over LSU
Game 10: Georgia over Ole Miss

Game 11: Tennessee over Florida
Game 12: Kentucky over Georgia

Game 13: Tennessee over Kentucky[/QUOTE]
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 people
#15
#15
Shaun1985 said:
Didn't see this posted....if so, merge.

Screen-Shot-2014-03-10-at-11.22.44-AM.png


This looks about right. We are the better team (on paper) against anyone not named Florida and obviously been playing like that the past few games. Ken Pom also list Jordan McRae as his current conference POY and there is only a 13% chance of a bid stealer (as long as Ark and UT get at large bids)

Here is the link to view the rest of the conference tournaments. Also shows BE has best chance to steal bids.

the kenpom.com blog
Click to expand...

He's giving us about a 1/3 chance of beating UF if we play them (UF's odds for the final double ours). And, he makes us a slight favorite in the final if we get there.
 
#16
#16
bleedingTNorange said:
Pat Forde predicts Vols win the SECT, clearly he doesn't care about our history in the SECT lol.

Y! SPORTS
Click to expand...

If it's true that CCM has already publicly declared us an NCAA lock, then I fear this week will be exactly like last year. That just doesn't seem like the best way to motivate the team.
 
#22
#22
Somethign else not mentioned from Ken Pom

"Forida was one of three conference unbeatens, to go with Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State, and not surprisingly the Gators are favored to win the SEC tournament. But how can we not devote most of the words here to Tennessee, the ultimate paradox in basketball?

John Calipari should know that if I had my way, the Vols would be the most analyzed team in the history of the game. In SEC play they had the best per-possession numbers on both offense and defense among schools not located in Florida. A decent share of those good numbers was piled up in mauling of fellow conference opponents. Only one of Tennessee’s 11 SEC wins was by single-digits, and only one of their seven conference losses was by double-digits. The Vols have won their last three by a combined 93 points.

Yet people are so down on Tennessee that they’re not even a lock for the NCAA tournament at this moment. However, people are high on Tennessee when defending Wichita State’s schedule. See, the defenders say, Tennessee is so good they beat Virginia by over 30 points. But people are down on Tennessee when criticizing Wichita State’s schedule, too. See, the critics say, Tennessee got swept by lowly Texas A&M. There are a lot of contradictory signals here.

With Bruce Pearl’s show cause penalty set to expire in August, most Vols fans seem to want their coach fired, so they wouldn’t mind an early loss here which might send Tennessee to the NIT. As for me, I’d welcome either a deep run in the tournament or a trip to the NIT. The former would be another example about how we all suck at evaluating coaches. The latter could lead to an NIT champ being rated higher than the NCAA champ. Those two possibilities may be the only way Tennessee could top a very unusual regular season.
 
#25
#25
Shaun1985 said:
Somethign else not mentioned from Ken Pom

"Forida was one of three conference unbeatens, to go with Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State, and not surprisingly the Gators are favored to win the SEC tournament. But how can we not devote most of the words here to Tennessee, the ultimate paradox in basketball?

John Calipari should know that if I had my way, the Vols would be the most analyzed team in the history of the game. In SEC play they had the best per-possession numbers on both offense and defense among schools not located in Florida. A decent share of those good numbers was piled up in mauling of fellow conference opponents. Only one of Tennessee’s 11 SEC wins was by single-digits, and only one of their seven conference losses was by double-digits. The Vols have won their last three by a combined 93 points.

Yet people are so down on Tennessee that they’re not even a lock for the NCAA tournament at this moment. However, people are high on Tennessee when defending Wichita State’s schedule. See, the defenders say, Tennessee is so good they beat Virginia by over 30 points. But people are down on Tennessee when criticizing Wichita State’s schedule, too. See, the critics say, Tennessee got swept by lowly Texas A&M. There are a lot of contradictory signals here.

With Bruce Pearl’s show cause penalty set to expire in August, most Vols fans seem to want their coach fired, so they wouldn’t mind an early loss here which might send Tennessee to the NIT. As for me, I’d welcome either a deep run in the tournament or a trip to the NIT. The former would be another example about how we all suck at evaluating coaches. The latter could lead to an NIT champ being rated higher than the NCAA champ. Those two possibilities may be the only way Tennessee could top a very unusual regular season.
Click to expand...

Ken Pom is going to say nice things about us, because he has to defend his ridiculously high ranking of us. I don't see how anyone can believe that our season makes us worthy of being #13.
Computer polls will always have some outliers ranked fairly high, but it shouldn't be terribly difficult to rank the schools from major conferences. I expect a team that dominates a weak league to sometimes finish high in a computer, but not someone who's been playing 'BCS' opponents all season.

One could argue from those stats that we've had some bad luck, in that we're losing the games decided in tight finishes. But, it's also arguable that we're losing any game that is competitive for a reason.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top