Just got back from DC...

[CSpindizzy]

The company I work for has clients on both sides of the aisle and most consulting firms, polling firms, etc. We met with some of the big shots including three major polling firms and two of the biggest groups on each side of the aisle. I don't think I've ever seen so many in so much doubt over an election.

Republicans are completely scared right now because of the projected turnout. They think Republican voters ARE turning out but most are very disgruntled and are voting for NON-GOP candidates.

The Dems are nervous that the public polls are showing gaps closing while their own show safe numbers.

Right now I think the Dems are still coming out of this one ahead. I give the GOP GOTV operation the advantage but most GOP consultants are saying they are not getting a feeling that their people will actually generate votes for their candidates. The line of thought was that they should have hit the Pelosi scare line much earlier and harder.

The Dems have increased the focus on getting those 6 Senate seats since the Senate means more on judicial appointments, etc.

My prediction is 20 House and 4 Senate to the Dems. If the Dems pull out the Senate I will be shocked. But I believe there is enough ground swell for the Dems in House districts to pull off taking control.

 

[GAVol]

My prediction is 20 House and 4 Senate to the Dems. If the Dems pull out the Senate I will be shocked. But I believe there is enough ground swell for the Dems in House districts to pull off taking control.

That is exactly the prediction I made to a friend today. Anything less than that and the polling companies are all going to have egg on their face and the Democrats will go on suicide watch.

 

[CSpindizzy]

The spinsters are already working on how to respond to this. The Dems are pretty much expecting this as the realistic outcome. The GOP is expecting a loss of some and many have tried to publicly state the worst case scenario so that when it looks better than that scenario, they can say it wasn't as bad as it could have been. But to lose the House even by one seat is very traumatic for the GOP. Oversight and investigation powers come from the House. I think if the Dems DO NOT take the Senate, this bodes well for them in 2008. This election cleans out the moderates in the GOP and pushes the party as a whole including those in Congress back further to the Right. This could be good for the fiscal conservatives but I think it is much better for the social ones. It makes the party further from the mainstream and the Dems easily in reach of retaking the center. I think regardless of outcome, the GOP takes a severe hit as a whole with the leadership having to regroup. There will be some bloodletting internally. A moderate and non-vitriolic Speaker will be out and more divisive types will jockey for control.

This will take Allen and Kerry both out of 2008 runs. Both have mucked up their chances with 'foot in mouth' disease.

 

[CSpindizzy]

And I don't think polling companies lose any more reputation than they already have. Note the tightening of the numbers lately. They've been a little more controlling over the samples of late JUST IN CASE.....

 

[GAVol]

And I don't think polling companies lose any more reputation than they already have. Note the tightening of the numbers lately. They've been a little more controlling over the samples of late JUST IN CASE.....

Competing with caller ID, cell phones and telemarketers has to have made polling a huge headache.

 

[CSpindizzy]

Well that is why they are buying larger lists to compensate for that.....and boys....keep buying those larger lists. I have the stork coming again in June and I need more money for diapers.

This election has been very sweet for me. Thank you John Kerry, Mark Foley, Jack Abramoff, Rev. Ted, etc.