Josh Pate’s Prediction Machine

#4
#4
Anything below 8 regular season wins is a disappointment, IMO. Chance for 9 with a bowl win is progress and positive. We really need to beat UF with a new coach coming off a **** season. That will be the pressure game for CJH. Bama, UGA and LSU simply have WAY more talent than we do, so expecting to beat any of those teams is fantasy.
 
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#6
#6
jeff1vol said:
Anything below 8 regular season wins is a disappointment, IMO. Chance for 9 with a bowl win is progress and positive. We really need to beat UF with a new coach coming off a **** season. That will be the pressure game for CJH. Bama, UGA and LSU simply have WAY more talent than we do, so expecting to beat any of those teams is fantasy.
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I just don't get how so many have these expectations. We are 2 years removed from a 3 win team that lost all of its stars to transfers, the NFL or injury over the past two years. That team lost to a 3 win Arkansas team btw. We have also had self imposed roster restrictions over that time. Our most improved position group lost their coach to the NFL. The only real proven stars we have are Hooker and Tillman. If we repeat last year and have some emerging stars with a proven backup QB and play all our games we lose close, (I'd prefer the bowl dub), I think we have plenty to be excited about. That said, COULD we win more than that this year? Hard to say. Brian Kelly and LSU is no slouch. KY has 2 10 win seasons and 2 dubs over FLA the last 4 years and I think they return a lot of guys and they keep their coaches. No slouch. Then you have the two best teams in the nation playing us. Florida has a ton of talent apparently. If their coach is good, that will not be an easy game. Then going to Pitt to play a team that apparently has done well in replacing their QB, that won the ACC and also beat us in our home last year? That's 6 games where we SHOULD have our hands full and we certainly COULD lose them all. @SC could be a challenge too if Beamer lives up to the hype.
 
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#8
#8
vegasvolfan said:
I just don't get how so many have these expectations. We are 2 years removed froma 3 win team that lost all of its stars to transfers, the NFL or injury over the past two years. That team lost to a 3 win Arkansas team btw. We have also had self imposed roster restrictions over that time. Our most improved position group lost their coach to the NFL. The only real proven stars we have are Hooker and Tillman. If we repeat last year and have some emerging stars with a proven QB and play all our games we lose close, (I'd prefer the bowl dub), I think we have plenty to be excited about. That said, COULD we win more than that this year? Hard to say. Brian Kelly and LSU is no slouch. KY has 2 10 win seasons and 2 dubs over the last 4 years and I think they return a lot of guys and they keep their coaches. No slouch. Then you have the two best teams in the nation playing us. Florida has a ton of talent apparently. If their coach is good, that will not be an easy game. Then going to Pitt to play a team that apparently has done well in replacing their QB, that won the ACC and also beat us in our last year? That's 6 games where we SHOULD have our hands full and we certainly COULD lose them all. @SC could be a challenge too if Beamer lives up to the hype.
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And if we started Hooker last year against Pitt and the refs weren’t garbage in the Ole Miss game, we would have won 9 games last year
 
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#10
#10
I think that both 8 wins and 10 wins are possibilities.

I just don't see less than 8 or more than 10.

We will see, but I think that the Pitt and Florida games are the whole key to the season and two wins in those games would have us on track to have a great season with some good momentum heading into the rest of the schedule.

I just don't see a win against Georgia or Alabama, but we will see if that changes once games start and see how they perform, especially the Georgia Defense.
 
#16
#16
jeff1vol said:
Anything below 8 regular season wins is a disappointment, IMO. Chance for 9 with a bowl win is progress and positive. We really need to beat UF with a new coach coming off a **** season. That will be the pressure game for CJH. Bama, UGA and LSU simply have WAY more talent than we do, so expecting to beat any of those teams is fantasy.
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8 is acceptable, 9 keeps the heup sky high
 
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#18
#18
BarnesIsCaliparisDaddy said:
We can go 9-3 ***IF***we stay very healthy
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I agree. But I do not like what I have seen in the practice reports about who is participating and who is not. Another item of concern is relying on true freshmen RB’s picking up the pass protection schemes and protecting our most valuable asset. I am thinking 7-5 but hoping for 10-2.
 
#19
#19
KeyVol14 said:
And if we started Hooker last year against Pitt and the refs weren’t garbage in the Ole Miss game, we would have won 9 games last year
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Could have. I agree with the could part. Purdue I think too. But should we have?
 
#20
#20
BlinghamptonVol said:
People that think we’re going 7-5 are sleeping on this team.
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We return 2 maybe 3 players that are proven from a 3 win team two years ago that lost to a 3 win Arkansas team. The performance of those two players depends heavily on the other two receivers on the field. The two who are gone went pro, as did their position coach. On top of that we are on the second of 2 restricted roster seasons.

There's absolutely nothing that says we should do any better than we did last year. The best thing we have going beyond Banks, Hooker and Tillman is this is year two of learning the D&O. So, if their staff produces more emerging players than they did last year and the other guys play like they know the defense and the offense, and the depth that there is rumblings about shows that we are indeed building there, then we certainly could win 8.

I still think people will have a much better year if they keep their expectations low and celebrate any improvement. If we win 8 or more games, well we have our performed any coach's year 2 since Phillip Fulmer. Not sure I have ever seen an 8 win team ranked #10 at the end of the year, however.
 
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#21
#21
The worst case at 5-7 is a little ridiculous imo. 6-6 is pushing it although it wouldn’t shock me, but I think worst case scenario is 7-5.
 
#22
#22
If Hooker gets injured early AND Milton is the same as last year, you could absolutely see 5-7.

WR’s could be good, but are unproven.
DB’s got torched by Purdue’s 2nd team and Theo Jackson is gone.
OL gave up 40+ sacks last year, and loses its best member.
SEC proven depth is just not there yet.

Heupel walked into a crap storm, and exceeded expectations last year, which have raised them even higher this year.

8-4 is a good year, given the depth issues. But, the up-tempo offense still yields itself to needing a deeper defense (depth is key so that the defense doesn’t get tired), which is what teams like ‘Bama have.
 
#23
#23
I think 8-4 is more reasonable. There's always going to be at least one game where we get boned by the refs or some bad luck.
 
#24
#24
zooguy said:
If Hooker gets injured early AND Milton is the same as last year, you could absolutely see 5-7.
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Who truly knows? They seem pleased with Milton's progress.

WR’s could be good, but are unproven.
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Whose isn't? Pitt has one returning guy with real experience and he's nowhere near Tillman's level. UK is hoping on a portal guy. UF's top two returning guys have less yardage and catches than Tillman alone. USCe returns a couple of guys but neither were very good.

UGA, LSU, and Bama are all pretty certain but who else on the schedule? That's kind of the nature of CFB.
DB’s got torched by Purdue’s 2nd team and Theo Jackson is gone.
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The coaches indicate they're better and deeper. I'm a wait and see guy.
OL gave up 40+ sacks last year, and loses its best member.
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Best member? He missed about half the games. Another question mark for UT but if they can throw as effectively as they did last fall then I don't mind extra snaps.

SEC proven depth is just not there yet.
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USCe has it? UF? UK? Only a very few teams have "SEC proven depth"... Bama and UGA primarily.

Heupel walked into a crap storm, and exceeded expectations last year, which have raised them even higher this year.

8-4 is a good year, given the depth issues.
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You are looking at UT in a vacuum and ignoring the problems of their opponents. 8-4 should really be the minimum. I think Pate is right that 9-3 is most likely. But 10-2 really wouldn't be that big of a shock.
But, the up-tempo offense still yields itself to needing a deeper defense (depth is key so that the defense doesn’t get tired), which is what teams like ‘Bama have.
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Not really. The D just has to get better at getting off the field on 3rd down. Do that... and the O dictates the game to the opponent like the Mizzou and USCe games.
 
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