Josh Heupel, the Blue Chip Ratio and the 2022 Schedule

#26
#26
ScornedPapaVol said:
This list re-emphasizes the stark reality.... Beating Florida, Georgia & Alabama in the same season and then winning the SEC title game will require Tennessee being the best team in the nation.
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Yep.

That is true for literally every team in the SEC. Winning the SEC pretty much = being the best in the country.
 
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#28
#28
lilesrt said:
7-5 will a bowl win and I’ll be satisfied. It’s a matter of time.. he’s building.
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I don't think I would be satisfied with a 7-5 repeat.

I mean, I'm gonna support Heupel & Co. in 2023 no matter what happens this year, this is absolutely NO time for changing captain and crew out. I have a lot of faith that he might be the right guy to take us back to Championship Football, at this point. Even if this year is a hiccup.

But to truly enjoy 2022, I think it needs to be at least 8-4. Either beat all the 2nd tier and below, or get one of the big boys in exchange for losing one we shoulda won.
 
#29
#29
The ratio is really a misnomer.

In reality, it's the raw number of players on your roster that are 4 and 5. 50% just happens to represent about 45 players, and if you have that many 4-5 stars, you're going to be good....
 
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#30
#30
unfrozencvmanvol said:
The other 11 games outcome would factor into the judgment of that game obviously, say we did lose to Florida that badly, I'm not going to flip out in week 4 about that. It may be UF ends up being pretty good, and goes 10-2 or something. It could be we had a lot of injuries or some fluke turnovers. I'm inclined to say though if we beat everyone else but these 4 regardless of margins, it's still going to be a step forward, not as big of one as we'd like maybe depending on those margins, but a step forward nonetheless. It's a long way from losing to Missouri 50-17 back to back years like we did not long ago, that's for sure.
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I hear you but don't get blown out by Florida period that can not happen
 
#31
#31
I really haven't kept up with Florida and their new coach.
They AR 15 and all those 5 star RBs.

Really don't know what to expect from them.
Bama is "hurting " a little bit. They had no answers on offense late in the season.

UGAs QB situation is going trip them up this year. Stetson had that NFL defense to bail him out. He won't have that this year.

East is wide open imo.

This might be Texas A&Ms time to win it.
Wouldn't surprise if LSU and Brian Kelly make a huge splash.

This could be one of those wierd years where Tennessee or Arkansas meet the SEC Championship
 
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#32
#32
Heupel HAS to be measured against the Big 3 of UGA, UF, and Bama for progress. The rest of the schedule makes not a lot of difference unless there is some humiliation there along the way on our part, like a loss to Vandy. He did not cover the spread last year against any of those Big 3. Progress this year would be to cover the spread against any one of the three. If not, it's not world ending, but he can't go 3 years in a row with no progress against them without people credibly questioning if year 4 becomes a must situation imo. He goes 4 years straight unable to cover the spread against any of the Big 3, he's just horse axxing around imo.
 
#33
#33
Vol423 said:
I'm absolutely mystified by ANYONE claiming that we have one of the best WR units in the country this year. We'll put up solid passing/receiving yards this season because Heupel is so good at scheming to get receivers wide open. However, our WR corp is nowhere near being one of the most talented WR corps in the country.
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Based on proven production? I agree with you. Based on talent/ability and potential? I strongly disagree. Tillman, Bru, Hyatt, Calloway, Holiday, Keyton, Merrill - that’s a lot of talent, even if we’re just basing it on recruiting stars. That’s 4 solid 4*s and a 5*. And that’s not even counting the 3 talented frosh we have. I’m simply saying based on talent alone, we’re up there. Definitely top 12-15, at worst.
 
#34
#34
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Bud Elliot at 247 updated his annual blue chip ratio for 2022 this week.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2022: The 15 teams who can actually win a national title

You can find all of the particulars in the link above if you're interested. He addresses a lot of the common questions/criticisms people have in the article, and I'm less interested in discussing its' methodology than I am just looking at the teams on our schedule, based on historical patterns, that he calculates have a chance to win it all this year.

First, very briefly regarding methodology, Elliot defines "blue chips" as composite 5 star and 4 star players, and the "ratio" is the percentage of players on a roster that are former 5 stars and 4 stars. He analyzes historical patterns of who has won it all in the past and what percentage of blue chips that team had. Then he updates the list of teams every year that have a chance to win it all per the formula.

There are 15 teams this year:

Alabama- 89% blue chips
Ohio State- 80% blue chips
Georgia- 77% blue chips
Oklahoma- 71% blue chips
A&M- 70% blue chips
Texas- 68% blue chips
LSU- 66% blue chips
Clemson- 63% blue chips
Notre Dame- 62% blue chips
Florida- 60% blue chips
Oregon- 60% blue chips
Michigan- 59% blue chips
Penn State- 55% blue chips
Miami- 55% blue chips &
Auburn- 54% blue chips

That's the list for 2022, and it does not include the class that is being recruited now (2023) because they won't be on campus this fall. I am not sure what exactly our percentage is, but I did hear Elliot on ESPNU radio this week and he was asked about what teams were on the bubble to make the list and could make it next year, and he named about a half a dozen teams and we were one of them.

My main point though is, I've seen this narrative developing that people should be down on Heupel if we don't beat LSU or Florida or both. As you can see, LSU still has the 7th highest ratio in the country (66%) and Florida has the 10th (60%). This doesn't mean we CAN'T beat either team, I definitely think we CAN, however folks need to realize that the death of those two programs is being greatly exaggerated, they've both still got a ton of talent. I'd love to beat either or both. I know it gets frustrating waiting for us to re-arrive, but 2022 is still not a year, where I think it can be fairly said that we SHOULD beat either team. Understand, I'm not saying count it as a loss, I'm just saying if we went 8-4 and only lost to the 4 teams on this list, there is no way in hell anyone should be down on Josh Heupel or our football program. GBO.
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Thanks for your information. I love the point you make about LSU and Florida still having a wealth of talent and this upcoming season shouldn’t be judged in any way by our win/loss against them. Heupel is doing this re-build the right way, and any single-game snapshot result against any team is not a wise view.
 
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#35
#35
Adding to the sec should be West Virginia, Virginia tech, Miami, North Carolina and nc state, Clemson, Florida state, can throw in Georgia tech and Louisville for geographic reasons.
 
#36
#36
Florida will automatically be better. Napier is a good coach and a great hire by them his father was the local coach here for years. I expect at least 9 wins from them hopefully
We get them early while still having some misfires but I expect they will be Spurrier level offensively soon.
 
#37
#37
Jdw2920 said:
Florida will automatically be better. Napier is a good coach and a great hire by them his father was the local coach here for years. I expect at least 9 wins from them hopefully
We get them early while still having some misfires but I expect they will be Spurrier level offensively soon.
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Spurrier level? UF is always talent packed, whether they win or not. But that is a fanboy take and not something to really worry about. Even our offense isn't like the Fun n Gun. That offense wore teams down like a boxer. Those UF Olines were bulldozers.
 
#38
#38
LittleVol said:
I really haven't kept up with Florida and their new coach.
They AR 15 and all those 5 star RBs.

Really don't know what to expect from them.
Bama is "hurting " a little bit. They had no answers on offense late in the season.

UGAs QB situation is going trip them up this year. Stetson had that NFL defense to bail him out. He won't have that this year.

East is wide open imo.

This might be Texas A&Ms time to win it.
Wouldn't surprise if LSU and Brian Kelly make a huge splash.

This could be one of those wierd years where Tennessee or Arkansas meet the SEC Championship
Click to expand...

I honestly don't know what to expect from Florida, but there is talent on the team. It's hard to know how good they can be because they so clearly quit last year. Players and staff.

There is talent there and one has to think that there can be great improvement just based on a lack of dysfunction alone.

You don't give up 42 points to Samford at halftime unless there are things drastically wrong that have nothing to do with the talent on the field.
 
#39
#39
Jdw2920 said:
Florida will automatically be better. Napier is a good coach and a great hire by them his father was the local coach here for years. I expect at least 9 wins from them hopefully
We get them early while still having some misfires but I expect they will be Spurrier level offensively soon.
Click to expand...


This is not going to age well.... at all.
 
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#40
#40
99gator said:
I honestly don't know what to expect from Florida, but there is talent on the team. It's hard to know how good they can be because they so clearly quit last year. Players and staff.

There is talent there and one has to think that there can be great improvement just based on a lack of dysfunction alone.

You don't give up 42 points to Samford at halftime unless there are things drastically wrong that have nothing to do with the talent on the field.
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Agree with that. People tend to underestimate teams that quit on their prior coach. Florida doesn't even need great coaching to play better than they did down the stretch in 2021.
 
#41
#41
If your getting as many as 14 to 15 4 to 5* recruits each year that would put you in that group. It all comes down to coaching and developing what you do get and that has been our problem over the last 10 years. If there is truly one bright spot about CJH that is already showing he is proving that he can do that to a point.
 
#42
#42
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Bud Elliot at 247 updated his annual blue chip ratio for 2022 this week.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2022: The 15 teams who can actually win a national title

You can find all of the particulars in the link above if you're interested. He addresses a lot of the common questions/criticisms people have in the article, and I'm less interested in discussing its' methodology than I am just looking at the teams on our schedule, based on historical patterns, that he calculates have a chance to win it all this year.

First, very briefly regarding methodology, Elliot defines "blue chips" as composite 5 star and 4 star players, and the "ratio" is the percentage of players on a roster that are former 5 stars and 4 stars. He analyzes historical patterns of who has won it all in the past and what percentage of blue chips that team had. Then he updates the list of teams every year that have a chance to win it all per the formula.

There are 15 teams this year:

Alabama- 89% blue chips
Ohio State- 80% blue chips
Georgia- 77% blue chips
Oklahoma- 71% blue chips
A&M- 70% blue chips
Texas- 68% blue chips
LSU- 66% blue chips
Clemson- 63% blue chips
Notre Dame- 62% blue chips
Florida- 60% blue chips
Oregon- 60% blue chips
Michigan- 59% blue chips
Penn State- 55% blue chips
Miami- 55% blue chips &
Auburn- 54% blue chips

That's the list for 2022, and it does not include the class that is being recruited now (2023) because they won't be on campus this fall. I am not sure what exactly our percentage is, but I did hear Elliot on ESPNU radio this week and he was asked about what teams were on the bubble to make the list and could make it next year, and he named about a half a dozen teams and we were one of them.

My main point though is, I've seen this narrative developing that people should be down on Heupel if we don't beat LSU or Florida or both. As you can see, LSU still has the 7th highest ratio in the country (66%) and Florida has the 10th (60%). This doesn't mean we CAN'T beat either team, I definitely think we CAN, however folks need to realize that the death of those two programs is being greatly exaggerated, they've both still got a ton of talent. I'd love to beat either or both. I know it gets frustrating waiting for us to re-arrive, but 2022 is still not a year, where I think it can be fairly said that we SHOULD beat either team. Understand, I'm not saying count it as a loss, I'm just saying if we went 8-4 and only lost to the 4 teams on this list, there is no way in hell anyone should be down on Josh Heupel or our football program. GBO.
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what blue chip ratio, according to some folks on here we can win championship with three star players. :rolleyes:
 
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#43
#43
Jdw2920 said:
Florida will automatically be better. Napier is a good coach and a great hire by them his father was the local coach here for years. I expect at least 9 wins from them hopefully
We get them early while still having some misfires but I expect they will be Spurrier level offensively soon.
Click to expand...
😆
Napier is gonna crash and burn. Won't make it 3 years there.
 
#44
#44
PlanetVolunteer said:
Uhh no

I'm saying if they can compete and beat good teams eith the 27th and 28th ranked rosters we have no excuses.

And I'm fine with 8-4. But if it's 8-4 without a win over Florida (unless we beat Bama or UGA) its going to make it very difficult to ever compete for an SEC title.

Think about how detrimental a loss to them would be. Right now we are ahead of them. We are expected to be better. Competing for second in the east. We lose to them this year and we speed up their rebuild tremendously. They get a win in packed Neyland against a nationally ranked Tennessee on national TV. Their recruiting and confidence all skyrocket. Then we have to go to Gainesville in 2023. If Heupel can't beat Napier in Knoxville in Napiers first year is he beating them in 2023? No. So we go into 2024. Florida is probably rolling and they've beaten us and been ahead of us in the east standings for two years. Do we beat them in 24 with Nico? Maybe. But that's after we spotted them two W's confidence, and guaranteed great recruiting classes.

I'm also not saying we should fire Heupel in that event. But I question the ceiling with him if he can't beat Florida this year. We already have two automatic losses on the schedule. If we add a third then that puts so much pressure on every other game and flirting dangerously with mediocrity.

Beating Florida is absolutely huge.
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Josh has had one season of play and two (or really 1.5) recruiting classes. To say that an 8-4 season without a win over Florida will make it "very difficult to ever compete for an SEC title" seems to me quite short sighted.
 
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#47
#47
ScornedPapaVol said:
This list re-emphasizes the stark reality.... Beating Florida, Georgia & Alabama in the same season and then winning the SEC title game will require Tennessee being the best team in the nation.
Click to expand...

Which also very likely means we won’t be sniffing an SEC title anytime soon.
 
#49
#49
BigOrangeTrain said:
Which also very likely means we won’t be sniffing an SEC title anytime soon.
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Maybe in 2024....more probably in 2025. We need to finish this class strong, and have at least two to three more solid classes with two of those being in the top 10, all classes being in the top 15 to have the horses to compete week in and week out with the best. It will still be a struggle if we don't grab at least one top 5 class over the next 2 or 3 years. It's just a fact of life in the SEC.
 
#50
#50
norrislakevol said:
Maybe in 2024....more probably in 2025. We need to finish this class strong, and have at least two to three more solid classes with two of those being in the top 10, all classes being in the top 15 to have the horses to compete week in and week out with the best. It will still be a struggle if we don't grab at least one top 5 class over the next 2 or 3 years. It's just a fact of life in the SEC.
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Don’t disagree but what is are blue chip index? How far away are we? Does somebody with time on their side want to do the math?
 
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