It can't just be me who thinks this...right?

[wmcovol]

I think star ratings are a good indicator of future success, and we have gotten enough highly rated recruits in the past 4 years to be better than we have been.

I'll say it again, attrition is killing us. We have signed 110 prospects the last 4 cycles - 25 players have just went poof!

People say Alabama has attrition - yes they do - but not as much as Butch has - and Alabama recruits at such a higher level that they can overcome this.

And take national champion Clemson - they only signed 83 players over that same 4 year span - very little attrition - and it showed as their upperclassmen out performed Bama in the title game.

If we want better recruiting classes, then Butch needs to keep them here 4 years or until they enter the draft.

Jones took over a program that HAD to rebuild the roster completely. Jones had to take some chances with players and couldn't on others. Practically every position group on the field had to be rebuilt. Comparing Bama 2013-2016 roster and attrition to Tennessee 2013-2016 is like comparing the US Military strength to that of Greece. Clemson was in considerably better shape than what Jones inherited.

Dooley signed very few SEC caliber players. Forget his recruiting rankings. Those were a joke and says more about how bad these are than the quality of players.

Jones biggest fault was this past year he let the inmates run the asylum and that doesn't work. He cant let that happen again. They have to work and improve their skills, physical ability. I wouldn't be surprised some of those complaining were those that left....

For a few players like a Deon Sanders or Peyton Manning, I agree on the star system but I also can tell you I played high school ball with 2 teammates that would have been 4 or 5* guys if the system was used then. Both had big offers for numerous SEC schools. Both signed with Tennessee. Neither were close to the best players I played with and neither really accounted for much in college ball. I also know of two guys my son played with. One was a 4* guy the other barely a 3*. The 4* was bigger, faster but softer. College scouts didn't see that. I did. I watched him dominate weaker teams but when the big boys came in during playoffs, it was the 3* guy who carried the load. Both went to college ball. 3* guy had an outstanding 4 yr college career, 4* guy quit after 2nd yr when he was buried on the bench.

 

[davethevol]

This feels like the Dooley years now with our justification of 3 stars. There will be some great players in this class, but there's no need to sugar coat it and pretend like we can compete. Jones will have to get more 4 and 5 stars next go around.

 

[Roustabout]

Butch keeps talking about recruiting profile but I'm wondering how did Preston Williams and the long list of slot receivers such as Jenkins fit better than say Van Jefferson and McClesky?

Attrition is it in a nut shell. Butch is left trying to rebuild the WR Corp with a bunch of inexperienced guys.

 

[KBVol]

I don't remember everything a coach has said before so I don't know if he has brought it up before,you may be right. I have seen it mentioned on here before this season by myself and others. I have thought this even back when Majors was coaching. I don't pay a lot of attention to coaches speaking because it's pretty much what they think people wanna hear(in my opinion). There are exceptions to the rule but it doesnt bother me either way.
Anyway,good talk. Glad we didn't evolve into name calling and bi#&!ing at each other like most of the time on here.

Appreciate your civility as well. Despite what many others consistently claim, we're all on the same side, we all love the Vols.

 

[Sin City Vol]

Jones took over a program that HAD to rebuild the roster completely. Jones had to take some chances with players and couldn't on others. Practically every position group on the field had to be rebuilt. Comparing Bama 2013-2016 roster and attrition to Tennessee 2013-2016 is like comparing the US Military strength to that of Greece. Clemson was in considerably better shape than what Jones inherited.

Dooley signed very few SEC caliber players. Forget his recruiting rankings. Those were a joke and says more about how bad these are than the quality of players.

Jones biggest fault was this past year he let the inmates run the asylum and that doesn't work. He cant let that happen again. They have to work and improve their skills, physical ability. I wouldn't be surprised some of those complaining were those that left....

For a few players like a Deon Sanders or Peyton Manning, I agree on the star system but I also can tell you I played high school ball with 2 teammates that would have been 4 or 5* guys if the system was used then. Both had big offers for numerous SEC schools. Both signed with Tennessee. Neither were close to the best players I played with and neither really accounted for much in college ball. I also know of two guys my son played with. One was a 4* guy the other barely a 3*. The 4* was bigger, faster but softer. College scouts didn't see that. I did. I watched him dominate weaker teams but when the big boys came in during playoffs, it was the 3* guy who carried the load. Both went to college ball. 3* guy had an outstanding 4 yr college career, 4* guy quit after 2nd yr when he was buried on the bench.

Great post!! I think some kids just play with a chip on their shoulder and some don't.

I'm sure you knew of guys growing up who were bigger, faster etc than everyone when you were at a pop warner age. Basically they just developed faster than everyone at a young age. When it came time for middle school and HS, they had stopped growing and everyone either caught them or passed them in size. The majority of those people quit playing because they don't like getting outshined. I think you see that in the college game a lot. Look at a guy like Gunner Kiel, the kid had everyone on his nuts but when all the kids got bigger and faster he wanted to take his ball and go play in a weaker conference. Some people are born gifted athletes but don't wanna work at it and some are born above average and have a desire to be the best. It's up to a coach to find the inner drive in the gifted athlete, Saban is the best at that

 

[KBVol]

Butch keeps talking about recruiting profile but I'm wondering how did Preston Williams and the long list of slot receivers such as Jenkins fit better than say Van Jefferson and McClesky?

Attrition is it in a nut shell. Butch is left trying to rebuild the WR Corp with a bunch of inexperienced guys.

Very good examples. All coaches/staffs miss on players, but it makes you wonder what that profile is he's working off of......don't want underrated guys like McCleskey who plays with great effort and "heart" and is very productive, but did want a guy like PWill who by all accounts didn't remotely fit the profile of a player in terms of intangibles.....as Swain said, PWill was the same 5 star diva when he left as he was when they recruited and signed him.

Bottom line is, and this is true of coaches in general, not just Jones imo, if the class is highly rated you'll hear the coach discuss how highly rated it is....had we been #4 or #7 again, we'd have heard Jones mention it multiple times. But since we weren't, he had to fallback on "heart" and "competitive spirit" and "we don't care about stars and ratings", even though he was quick to point out Trey Smith's rating. Just the way it is. I just think he could've praised and defended his class in a much more cogent, professional and realistic way than he did.

 

[IknoxvolsI]

How many of you guys remember the '08 season when the heat was turned up? About half way through Fulmer started talking 'bout how he had the #5 ranked class. The '05 class was the main reason we were ranked so high to begin the year!

 

[allenrikvik]

STARS seem to represent probability. On the aggregate basis, the higher the average star rating for the class seems to indicate the probability of success for the class meeting or exceeding expectations. For an individual, the star rating has some basis in raw skills (speed, agility, etc) but cannot access the intangibles (football IQ, desire, discipline, etc). The latter are critical for the players development. On the individual basis, the star rating is not very meaningful. As stated in the post, 5 star players are very clear, but beating on the balance of 3&4 star players is just not valid. Goes to the thread 'skills set the floor, while character set the potential'

 

[Ashley3045]

OP, your thought was to long...

Unlike the number of "o's" you used when attempting to spell the word "too".
smh.

 

[deezvols]

No matter the star rating, the recruit has to be well-coached to reach his potential as a college football player.

If the staff doesn't put enough effort into developing the player, more than likely, he won't play up to his star rating.

I think this is the main issue people have with this class. The issue is with coaching, not with the individual signees. We all know 3*s can be coached up to 5* status, but few on this board seem to have the faith that this staff can acheive that level of player development. Therefore, the only way we're going to get 4 or 5* play is to recruit them rather than develop them.

 

[81Orange]

I agree...they totally took a 4 STAR qb, and made him an inconsistent, hot and cold sec qb with accuracy issues until his senior year.....and even then he wasn't particularly accurate and "the best qb in the SEC" until the last 5 games of the year......recall that through 8 games last year, Josh was completing 57% of his passes with 14 tds and 9 interceptions. Not many, if any were calling him the best SEC QB at that point, before he caught fire throwing the ball vs the likes of Tenn Tech, Kentucky, Missouri and Vandy. He was outstanding those last 4 games plus the bowl game and I certainly thought he was the best SEC qb, although it was Jalen Hurts who was named SEC Offensive Player of the Year, not Josh. That's just the truth.

Much/the majority of Dobbs success here came from his God-given running ability to escape pressure, not from the coaching he received from a part time qb coach/grad assistant who had him reading defenses and throwing dimes all over the field from the pocket.

Sorry but I disagree. Dobbs played 4 years with a below average OL and below average receivers. When the support cast improved so did he. I also believe a QB coach would have helped. I agree he has some accuracy issues but I believe they are related to footwork as discussed during the UA game.

 

[81Orange]

When you can't recruit the best you look for developmental/undersized/upside players with speed and althetc ability. That's what we got.

I think the uncertainty surrounding position coaches hurt our recruiting. A kid doesn't have to look to hard to see marginal development at receiver, OL, secondary. Hopefully the next cycle we can show we have good coaches.
Some may have been concerned about all the injuries. When you recruit aginst the best in the SEC you better have your ducks in a row.

 

[deezvols]

When you can't recruit the best you look for developmental/undersized/upside players with speed and althetc ability. That's what we got.

I think the uncertainty surrounding position coaches hurt our recruiting. A kid doesn't have to look to hard to see marginal development at receiver, OL, secondary. Hopefully the next cycle we can show we have good coaches.
Some may have been concerned about all the injuries. When you recruit aginst the best in the SEC you better have your ducks in a row.

It also helps if they can pull a truck :hi:

 

[pimo1]

Okay, it's long. And I'm going to make it a little longer by starting off with an apology in advance, because I know that none of this is new. Still, I just wanted to say it all at once, for whatever it's worth. And I would hope it can stay in the football forum, because it's aimed more at the conventional fan than the geeks (no offense) in the recruiting forum.

Recruiting is an inexact "science" -- really not a science at all. Not all high school players play against the same level of competition. Not all of them receive the same degree of exposure. Even competing recruiting services don't always agree. And we've all seen a 3-star player magically become a 4-star overnight after signing with Alabama. So there's that.

All of the qualities that make a blue chip player a 4 or 5-star don't amount to a guarantee that he will make a positive impact in college. How many of these kids have disappointed us over the years? I would guess many more than have lived-up to the hype. I could name names, but I won't. Many come to mind immediately and I know they do for a lot of us here.

We're talking about kids here. No matter how we may view them now, it's just a snapshot taken at this particular stage in their ongoing development as players and humans. There is no way for us to see what they may one day become. They are all still in the early stages of realizing whatever potential they may (or may not) have. Many of the 4 or 5-stars are highly ranked because they are further up the curve now than the 2 and 3-stars. That does NOT mean that lower ranked players won't eventually be better than many of the higher ranked ones. We see it all the time. It's almost a cliche, the guy nobody wanted who ended-up being the best running back, tackle or defensive end in football.

Athletic ability is obviously very important. But by itself it is not enough to ensure that a player will be successful in making the jump from high school to college. I would much rather have a kid who is marginally less-athletic, but has the high character, work ethic, great attitude, willingness to push himself and his teammates, capable of taking coaching, smart enough to be successful in the classroom and more likely to keep himself eligible to play. These are the qualities that give your team a solid foundation and a chance to win. I would rather have 100% of what he has to offer than <50% of what the "can't miss" kid might give you -- or zero, if we can't keep him on the team for reasons that very often have nothing to do with football. Think Tom Osborne's great Nebraska teams that never had high recruiting rankings.

Everything else being equal, of course we would prefer to have a player that the recruiting services agree has the best athleticism and intangibles. But there's more to consider than just the stars.

The new ENgland Patriots and Moneyball A's are examples of what its all about.

Once u get to a certain level you get the pick of the litter but at the end ofthe day no matter how highly rated or talented a guy is he has to fit your system (Hurd) or it wont turn out well. If every guy out there that fits your system is a 3 star then recruit 3 stars and win. Or you can drool over the stars (Al Davis raiders).

People always drool over teams that recruit all the 5 stars but most of those teams do not make the big show. Even teams that consistently recruit well rankings wise fall off. ther teams that maintain are those that constantly recruit for need and the wins let you recruit more effectively over time. Clemson didn't build to where they are with top 10 classes they built to where they are and turned those wins into higher rated recruits.

UT fell of for a bit but now we are on the way up now that we are winning again recruiting will pick back up and once we start putting guys back in the show recruits will want to be here.

I find it funny how people cant imagine how players will go to bama and sit the bench 2-3 years. I can imagine it very well.If you are a RB or Dlineman its a perfect opportunity. You get 2 years to get ready and 2 to show out. You go to the league with less wear and tear on you. Trust me on draft day the guy with 4 years of 300 carries has less value than a guy that ran for the same average in 2 years of 200 carries each. running backs and DLinemen for the most part platoon in the NFL now because those are high wear and tear positions.

 

[Boca Vol]

Trust me on draft day the guy with 4 years of 300 carries has less value than a guy that ran for the same average in 2 years of 200 carries each. running backs and DLinemen for the most part platoon in the NFL now because those are high wear and tear positions.

A lot of people don't understand this. Pro scouts care about what you can bring to the table. Being a stat wh*re in college isn't too favorable.

 

[jakez4ut]

I think star ratings are a good indicator of future success, and we have gotten enough highly rated recruits in the past 4 years to be better than we have been.

I'll say it again, attrition is killing us. We have signed 110 prospects the last 4 cycles - 25 players have just went poof!

People say Alabama has attrition - yes they do - but not as much as Butch has - and Alabama recruits at such a higher level that they can overcome this.

And take national champion Clemson - they only signed 83 players over that same 4 year span - very little attrition - and it showed as their upperclassmen out performed Bama in the title game.

If we want better recruiting classes, then Butch needs to keep them here 4 years or until they enter the draft.

this. you get excited on NSD when these guys sign, and you follow their recruiting, then you start to back a year, 2 years, 3 years later....and these guys either aren't seeing the field, or they're no longer in town...

it's hard to go back and say "but, but we had the #4 or #7 class...." at that point. i know no one does this, really, but if you go back and "re rank" after attrition, i'm sure those #'s to the left of the school's name might be a little different.

bottom line, it's just numbers, and once you get past the 5*'s and higher rated 4*'s, generally it's a crap shoot, you have anomalies on both ends of the spectrum...3*'s that turn in to all americans and 5*'s that bust, and not sure how, if you can at all, factor for that.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

I think this is the main issue people have with this class. The issue is with coaching, not with the individual signees. We all know 3*s can be coached up to 5* status, but few on this board seem to have the faith that this staff can acheive that level of player development. Therefore, the only way we're going to get 4 or 5* play is to recruit them rather than develop them.

There will be a number of new staff on the 2017 team, but a few posters have already given them failing grades. I say lets give the 2017 staff some time, may be at least a year, before we burn them to the ground. The other variable, is the attitude of the players, be they 5* or 3*. A 5* with the attitude which has been shown by some of our past recruits , tears a team apart and pulls down team play.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

A lot of people don't understand this. Pro scouts care about what you can bring to the table. Being a stat wh*re in college isn't too favorable.

I agree with you, but I seldom believe anyone who starts their statement with "trust me".

 

[jonrulz123]

The way I think about it is, 5 star recruits have a low failure rate. Yes it's hard to differentiate talent but it's the best indicator possible.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

Very good examples. All coaches/staffs miss on players, but it makes you wonder what that profile is he's working off of......don't want underrated guys like McCleskey who plays with great effort and "heart" and is very productive, but did want a guy like PWill who by all accounts didn't remotely fit the profile of a player in terms of intangibles.....as Swain said, PWill was the same 5 star diva when he left as he was when they recruited and signed him.

Bottom line is, and this is true of coaches in general, not just Jones imo, if the class is highly rated you'll hear the coach discuss how highly rated it is....had we been #4 or #7 again, we'd have heard Jones mention it multiple times. But since we weren't, he had to fallback on "heart" and "competitive spirit" and "we don't care about stars and ratings", even though he was quick to point out Trey Smith's rating. Just the way it is. I just think he could've praised and defended his class in a much more cogent, professional and realistic way than he did.

First of all, I would never use Swain as an example of someone as an example of knowledge about what is currently going on at Tennessee. He is grasping to hang on in his profession and may or may not make it.

Secondly, I saw PWilliams play game in both his JR. and Sr. years. He was the most dynamic ER I had seen in years. very school in the South wanted him and he had loved Tennessee since he was a child. I saw him tear good teams apart with his ability and attitude. He was smart and formed a small business which provided resources to place him above his peers.

Late in his senior year, he suffered a devastating knee injury and was never able to restore his god-give talent to previous levels. I think he became frustrated and was unable to handle his loss of ability. I think he will get his head straight will be able to again play football at a high level. I wish him well and hope he is successful in the future.

 

[KBVol]

The way I think about it is, 5 star recruits have a low failure rate. Yes it's hard to differentiate talent but it's the best indicator possible.

They also, according to data from 247, are 995 times more likely to be named an All-Pro player than a 3 star player. There's a reason why there's only 32 of them vs 1700+ 3 star players. You're right in your assessment.

 

[KBVol]

First of all, I would never use Swain as an example of someone as an example of knowledge about what is currently going on at Tennessee. He is grasping to hang on in his profession and may or may not make it.

Secondly, I saw PWilliams play game in both his JR. and Sr. years. He was the most dynamic ER I had seen in years. very school in the South wanted him and he had loved Tennessee since he was a child. I saw him tear good teams apart with his ability and attitude. He was smart and formed a small business which provided resources to place him above his peers.

Late in his senior year, he suffered a devastating knee injury and was never able to restore his god-give talent to previous levels. I think he became frustrated and was unable to handle his loss of ability. I think he will get his head straight will be able to again play football at a high level. I wish him well and hope he is successful in the future.

We disagree on Swain. Don't know about his ratings, but it's clear to me he has good information on the program due to his former player status.

As far as PWill goes, never questioned his talent and I'm sure he was frustrated with his HS senior season knee injury, who wouldn't be. But I clearly recall hearing, from a number of people other than Swain, that PWill was "a different cat", someone the coaches would have to manage differently and more so from the get.....in other words, a WR diva, but it certainly was worth the gamble because of his potential. I recall those discussions vividly.

So, with all due respect, I do believe Swain and the evidence we have, the way things played out with PWill quitting mid season after less attention and targets, confirmed everything he said.