Is There A Path Forward For Coach Caldwell?

[RetroVol]

All of this conversation got me interested in the difference in team numbers between the past two teams:

*34 games in 2024-25 and 30 games in 2025-26. All numbers are 2024-25 first, 2025-26 next

Offensive points per game: 87.2 vs. 77.0
Rebounds/game: 40.7 vs. 39.4
Assist/game: 15.6 vs. 13.7
Steals/game: 11.4 vs. 10.4
TO/game: 14.4 vs. 15.5
FG%: 43.8% vs. 41.3%
FT%: 68.9% vs. 67%
3P%: 32.6% vs. 31.0%
FG attempted/game: 68.0 vs. 65.1
Opp FG attempted/game: 59.5 vs. 59.4
Defensive points allowed per game: 69.6 vs. 70.1

Worth noting, the 2024-25 team was better at every single category, although only slightly in many categories except for the offensive PPG which was 10.2 PPG lower. I do note that the 2024-25 teams had the easier schedule according to metrics so that should be taken into consideration. Probably what surprised me the most however was that I was expecting larger discrepancies between the two teams in many cases. It is odd that this past LV team did not post better numbers in any category however. Just something to ponder, but the schedule differences likely played a role in these numbers. Otherwise not big differences between the two seasons surprisingly outside of the PPG scored.

Averages can hide a lot of variance.

 

[Rooster1]

Averages can hide a lot of variance.

Outside of SOS, where do you suppose the variance in PPG scored was realized? I would guess that the 25-26 team taking 2.9 fewer shots per game and shooting 2.5% lower overall would have accounted for a little bit, but certainly not 10.2 ppg worth.

 

[chuckiepoo]

Is there a path forward for negavols if/when Kim turns the team around next season is the real question! LOL

Seeking them out in their natural habitat can be challenging. They occasionally leave tell tale signs:

Please don't think I'm being negative, but

…and before they can get to the end a post. And hit send:

Hopefully, I'm wrong but

 

[chuckiepoo]

Good post. I've given my answer before: yes, there's a chance, but the odds are against her. So, the rest of this post is really devoted to understanding what we are seeing now.

I think she wavered in her belief in her self last year, and maybe even before. whenever the infamous Plan B decision was Might have let herself get talked into some decisions she regretted as early as recruiting in 2024 and the 2025 portal. But, at this point, cue Frankie singing "New York, New York." She's going to do it her way. May be a year too late. If I'm right and she wavered last year, that was a killer time to falter. But now she's rolling and is going to do the best she can with what she can get the way she knows how.

I hope she's also going to make some improvements, not only in her basketball approach, but in her people approach. Her mom is apparently not as involved with the team as she once was, and a lot of Kim's career has been with coaching sort of being a family activity (Dad as an assistant, Mom as Team Mom). I don't see Kim as a "warm and fuzzy" type, which can be okay, but she needs to figure out how to replace some of the "glue" that may have gone missing from her overall approach.

Amen Edit: (had to… )

 

[BBallNut]

Averages can hide a lot of variance.

I think this is the heart of the matter. Nearly all of the losses in 24-25 were decided by one or two possessions - games the Vols could have won. In 25-26, essentially starting with UConn, the losses were mostly not within reach. Even though the averages are similar, 25-26 was a lot more volatile game to game.

 

[RetroVol]

Outside of SOS, where do you suppose the variance in PPG scored was realized? I would guess that the 25-26 team took 2.9 fewer shots per game and shot 2.5% lower overall which would have accounted for a little bit, but certainly not 10.2 ppg worth.

Should have said standard deviation. The losses to top teams in 25-26 were by much larger margins than in 24-25. I suspect that if you limited the analysis to just Q1 contests, the difference between the two seasons would be more striking.

 

[chuckiepoo]

I really don't get the excuse making for CKC. I don't. She was brought here to win championships. Success should be defined as winning championships not being middle of the pack because the conference is too hard.

Why do i sense you may be in on the “Fahr Barnes!” train?

 

[RetroVol]

I think this is the heart of the matter. Nearly all of the losses in 24-25 were decided by one or two possessions - games the Vols could have won. In 25-26, essentially starting with UConn, the losses were mostly not within reach. Even though the averages are similar, 25-26 was a lot more volatile game to game.

Yes. This.

 

[Rooster1]

Should have said standard deviation. The losses to top teams in 25-26 were by much larger margins than in 24-25. I suspect that if you limited the analysis to just Q1 contests, the difference between the two seasons would be more striking.

Yes indeed. It would seem that the 2024-25 squad was more competitive against better competition teams but did not beat the lesser teams with as much authority as the 2025-26 team did. I haven’t looked to see if that was the case, but recent memory of games this past season against top teams alone seems to bear that out. Hence why the “averages” would still be close at season’s end.

 

[volfan102455]

Why do i sense you may be in on the “Fahr Barnes!” train?

I am not on that train. He has proven he can play with the big boy teams.

 

[volfan102455]

Averages can hide a lot of variance.

This is true - averages mean very little.

 

[Local Yokel]

The desire to traverse in reverse to a couple weeks previous to the "tweaking" stare down, when the Herd lost to Virginia Tech by over forty, is curious. Tech did not defeat the Marshall Plan per se; but rather, the Hokies resoundingly pummeled a grossly over-matched opponent in typical four-v-thirteen fashion. Still, that landslide is sometimes placed front and center as a coaching disparity - in this case, Brooks over Caldwell; even though, we could reasonably assert that Kim, with Tech's players, would've beaten Marshall, coached by Kenny, equally as bad. Or worse. Even without 3-time All-American, Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech was that much better than Marshall.

In the 24-25 SEC match-up, Kenny's Wildcats thrashed Kim's Lady Vols by twenty-plus; and, of course, Tennessee defeated Kentucky in Knoxville, just a couple months ago. So, absent any significant talent disparity, Kim and Kenny are one and one. And, I think that Brooks is a very good coach.

All this to opine that, Kim still possesses the prerequisite acumen for success at Tennessee. However, I would strongly suggest flexibility over obstinacy. Otherwise, that coaching search that some see as the only way forward will begin in earnest around Christmas, '26.

As for this just-completed season, despite our All-American-laden roster, the Lady Vols were not very good.
Because they could not (or would not) shoot!
And, our defense was lackadaisical at best.
And, our offense was ...offensive.
And because, on several occasions we literally had four freshmen on the court. Together. At the same time.

We know where the buck stops. Kim knows. And, she repeatedly said so. And, if we're being completely honest, her ill-advised "quit" statement affirmed what we'd witnessed time and time again. We had a most-unfortunate season to which Kim contributed enough misjudgements and misstatements for a lifetime. But, she did not "destroy the Program." Nor, did Danny White. They couldn't if they tried. And, we know this.

Ironically, the decision that she (or somebody) got right began the malcontent-led topple that resulted in "the worst season in Lady Vols history." A decision, that (IMO), is a major part of the reason that she is still our Coach. Good call (or no call) by the Administration.

Perhaps Kim can grab this lifeline and show enough personal growth and wisdom to salvage her reputation, and her career. She's off to a decent start. For now, however, she's a few players "short."

Cheers.

It’s pretty easy to see how this plays out. Kim gets lower level players who will conform easier to her style. They’ll win enough games to show improvement. Danny will say program is headed in right direction.

 

[Rooster1]

This is true - averages mean very little.

Surely you say that with some tongue in cheek.

 

[volfan102455]

Her path forward seems to be being able to realize that some of the system she uses will not work against SEC teams. Firm believer that every team must have player defined roles. Firm believer that you need to find your top eight or nine players and play them most of the game. Subbing to many kills momentum and also lowers talent level on the floor. It is not a factor against Mid Majors, but against P4 teams can be the difference between winning and losing. Defined roles make players play to their strengths not let them play to a weakness. Three point shooters are efficient in making them and you don't want players that are weak shooting them. If your strengths are rebounding and scoring inside then that is where you need to be playing and taking shots.
We've had way to much of players doing things they are not capable of doing in her five out.

She said she is not deviating from it. She thinks that is why they looked so bad at the end of the year.

 

[CINCYVOL]

The desire to traverse in reverse to a couple weeks previous to the "tweaking" stare down, when the Herd lost to Virginia Tech by over forty, is curious. Tech did not defeat the Marshall Plan per se; but rather, the Hokies resoundingly pummeled a grossly over-matched opponent in typical four-v-thirteen fashion. Still, that landslide is sometimes placed front and center as a coaching disparity - in this case, Brooks over Caldwell; even though, we could reasonably assert that Kim, with Tech's players, would've beaten Marshall, coached by Kenny, equally as bad. Or worse. Even without 3-time All-American, Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech was that much better than Marshall.

In the 24-25 SEC match-up, Kenny's Wildcats thrashed Kim's Lady Vols by twenty-plus; and, of course, Tennessee defeated Kentucky in Knoxville, just a couple months ago. So, absent any significant talent disparity, Kim and Kenny are one and one. And, I think that Brooks is a very good coach.

All this to opine that, Kim still possesses the prerequisite acumen for success at Tennessee. However, I would strongly suggest flexibility over obstinacy. Otherwise, that coaching search that some see as the only way forward will begin in earnest around Christmas, '26.

As for this just-completed season, despite our All-American-laden roster, the Lady Vols were not very good.
Because they could not (or would not) shoot!
And, our defense was lackadaisical at best.
And, our offense was ...offensive.
And because, on several occasions we literally had four freshmen on the court. Together. At the same time.

We know where the buck stops. Kim knows. And, she repeatedly said so. And, if we're being completely honest, her ill-advised "quit" statement affirmed what we'd witnessed time and time again. We had a most-unfortunate season to which Kim contributed enough misjudgements and misstatements for a lifetime. But, she did not "destroy the Program." Nor, did Danny White. They couldn't if they tried. And, we know this.

Ironically, the decision that she (or somebody) got right began the malcontent-led topple that resulted in "the worst season in Lady Vols history." A decision, that (IMO), is a major part of the reason that she is still our Coach. Good call (or no call) by the Administration.

Perhaps Kim can grab this lifeline and show enough personal growth and wisdom to salvage her reputation, and her career. She's off to a decent start. For now, however, she's a few players "short."

Cheers.

Destroy the program? You’re about to see that happen with one or two more years of what just transpired. The program has fallen to mediocrity at best, and that should be bad enough. Danny cares about revenue, not the tradition

 

[Rooster1]

This is true - averages mean very little.

 

[NOLACHUCKEYTOM]

Destroy the program? You’re about to see that happen with one or two more years of what just transpired. The program has fallen to mediocrity at best, and that should be bad enough. Danny cares about revenue, not the tradition

Program has pretty much been mediocre since 2009. Not really Kim or Danny's fault. Last year was a disaster but her first year was pretty good and fun to watch. Have to watch this year carefully to see which way we are trending.

 

[LVfanLasVegas]

Forgive me if it has already been pointed out, sometimes threads in this forum go so fast, within an hour 4 or 5 pages can be added. LOL.

But when looking at the numbers, has anyone just analyzed the 3rd quarter numbers from 24-25 to 25-26? They went from being one possession away at the end of games in 24-25 to being 1 possession away at the half in 25-26. Then the wheels fell off in Q3.

Thanks to all who share such great info and insight. I'm a math teacher, so I kinda dig numbers.

Go Lady Vols!

 

[LVfanLasVegas]

Forgive me if it has already been pointed out, sometimes threads in this forum go so fast, within an hour 4 or 5 pages can be added. LOL.

But when looking at the numbers, has anyone just analyzed the 3rd quarter numbers from 24-25 to 25-26? They went from being one possession away at the end of games in 24-25 to being 1 possession away at the half in 25-26. Then the wheels fell off in Q3.

Thanks to all who share such great info and insight. I'm a math teacher, so I kinda dig numbers.

Go Lady Vols!

Here's what Chatgpt came up with.
I totaled Tennessee’s 3rd-quarter points game by game from the official Lady Vols schedule/box-score pages for each season. Using the 34 official games on the 2024–25 schedule and the 30 official games on the 2025–26 schedule, Tennessee scored 782 third-quarter points in 2024–25 and 534 in 2025–26. That works out to: 23.0 points per game in the 3rd quarter in 2024–25 and 17.8 points per game in the 3rd quarter in 2025–26.


So the comparison is:

• 2024–25: 23.0 3rd-quarter points per game
• 2025–26: 17.8 3rd-quarter points per game
• Difference: 2024–25 was higher by 5.2 points per game in the 3rd quarter.

That means the 2024–25 Lady Vols were substantially stronger after halftime, averaging just over five more points in the third quarter than the 2025–26 team.

 

[Remy]

This is Tennessee. She has only one path forward. The Oakland Raiders former owner said it best, "Just win baby!!"

 

[RumpleVolskin]

All I know for sure right now is that this promises to shatter the previous record for Longest-Feeling Off-Season Ever. The wait to see what happens may finally drive me allllll the way to Crazy Town this time. I hope for a miracle and that, somehow, even after last season's heartbreaking end, that there will be even more fan support instead of less as some have feared.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, my hope is that Lady Vols fans show up and show out for these young women coming in with such promise and excitement to do their best, and they deserve special support. The best thing ever would be if we averaged more fans at games this coming season than we've had in many years. I want that so much for these new players AND for each other as fans.

I agree and don't think it would hurt for us to show Kim Lady Vol fans are tough,but also not haters. I think Pat would say support"our" coach and let the results drive direction. Yes,last season was a terrible roller-coaster ,but Kim's working hard to fill a roster. So support her and our new team.

 

[jsc1973]

Yes, her "path forward" is simple. Win basketball games.

There is a toxic element to the fanbase here that will never forgive any coach who never played for Bear Summitt (or forgive any coach who did, but can't win like Bear Summitt did), but if you win games, you'll keep that crowd at bay. She won enough in her first season, given the circumstances, and then she did not win enough in her second.

Hopefully she will win a lot of games in her third season, and we won't be throwing $2 million at Nikki Fargas to leave her WNBA job after Kara Lawson turns down the opportunity to be the Gene Stallings of women's basketball.

 

[1reVOLver]

Here's what Chatgpt came up with.
I totaled Tennessee’s 3rd-quarter points game by game from the official Lady Vols schedule/box-score pages for each season. Using the 34 official games on the 2024–25 schedule and the 30 official games on the 2025–26 schedule, Tennessee scored 782 third-quarter points in 2024–25 and 534 in 2025–26. That works out to: 23.0 points per game in the 3rd quarter in 2024–25 and 17.8 points per game in the 3rd quarter in 2025–26.


So the comparison is:

• 2024–25: 23.0 3rd-quarter points per game
• 2025–26: 17.8 3rd-quarter points per game
• Difference: 2024–25 was higher by 5.2 points per game in the 3rd quarter.

That means the 2024–25 Lady Vols were substantially stronger after halftime, averaging just over five more points in the third quarter than the 2025–26 team.

Good data analysis. Thanks. Now, please add the flip side of the coin, opponents' Q 3points scored in the two seasons. I suspect they increased, but I've been wrong more than once.

 

[madtownvol]

Yes, her "path forward" is simple. Win basketball games.

There is a toxic element to the fanbase here that will never forgive any coach who never played for Bear Summitt (or forgive any coach who did, but can't win like Bear Summitt did), but if you win games, you'll keep that crowd at bay. She won enough in her first season, given the circumstances, and then she did not win enough in her second.

Hopefully she will win a lot of games in her third season, and we won't be throwing $2 million at Nikki Fargas to leave her WNBA job after Kara Lawson turns down the opportunity to be the Gene Stallings of women's basketball.

I have been trying to stay out of these discussion of late since last season is water on the bridge and its time to look forward to 26-27 with CKC at the helm.

But this idea that there is some critical mass of "toxic fans" who irrationally hate anyone who is not Pat Summitt or an apple from her coach tree is literally getting old. There was huge excitement about CKC in the build-up to her first season and many were glad to have new blood into the program. The vibes after her first season were sky high. But, any sane fan base is going to be less enthusiastic about how this season went.

 

[glv98]

I have been trying to stay out of these discussion of late since last season is water on the bridge and its time to look forward to 26-27 with CKC at the helm.

But this idea that there some critical mass of "toxic fans" who irrationally hate anyone who is not Pat Summitt or an apple from her coach tree is literally getting old. There was huge excitement about CKC in the build-up to her first season and many were glad to have new blood into the program. The vibes after her first season were sky high. But, any sane fan base is going to be less enthusiastic about how this season wen

Right? So many straw men- the mob, the blue hairs, the pitchforks, the negavols. Boogeymen under every rock
.
I guess someone had to replace the refs during the off-season.