There's concern some teams will get shafted with their permanent 3 teams in the 9 game schedule. I dont see it being a big deal. Am I wrong?
So for example, the biggest discussion, Bama could get Tenn/Auburn/LSU. "Should we give Bama LSU?"
I think you set permanents how you want/makes sense and just start with those toughest draws. All you have to do is make sure the rest of the schedule is balanced. If Bama is playing 3 of the better teams, that means the remaining 6 games are going to be against more likely lesser opponents. Simply dont stack them and make one of the 2 years lopsided. I know scheduling isn't that easy, but I dont see the big deal.
What if Tenn gets the easier Bama/Vandy/UK, then they also draw Texas/ Georgia/Florida/Oklahoma/LSU/Auburn the same year? Just showing an extreme example to show that turns out to be a brutal, lopsided schedule.
Am I wrong and the concerns are real?
Overblown, yes, agreed. Absolutely. The difference is actually pretty slight, even at the extreme ends of the possibilities.
Here, gotta use some math to explain.
Assume all 15 other teams in the league are spread evenly in difficulty, from #1 at the top to #15 (Vandy, lol) at the bottom. Relative difficulty across the conference is really not linear like that, it's actually more clumpy into tiers, but this works well enough as an approximation.
Now compare Team A, with the easiest possible draw of permanent foes, to Team B with the hardest combination.
Team A plays 13, 14, and 15 every year. They also play 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 in even years,* and 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11 in odd years. If you add all those strengths up and divide by the 18 league games over the two years, you get an average difficulty of 9.
Team B plays 1, 2, and 3 every year, and then 4, 6, 8, 11, 13, 15 in even years, followed by 1, 2, 3, and then 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 14 in odd years. Add and divide by 18, and their average opponent difficulty turns out to be a 7.
So it's a bit like playing the 7th hardest team versus the 9th hardest, but for the entire year.
There's no great shakes between #7 and #9. Right now, that would be Oklahoma (SEC #7) and Ole Miss (SEC #9), according to the AP rankings. Or the difference between Florida (SEC #7) and A&M (SEC #9), per the Coaches poll.
I doubt we could even get the majority of folks on this board to agree which of those is the tougher draw. They're pretty close to equal.
And on top of all that, in reality no one will get 1, 2, 3 -or- 13, 14, 15. It will all be more muddled up than that.
So yah, you're right. Who a team gets as permanent opponents isn't going to yield much of a competitive advantage or disadvantage, at all. It's a bit of a tempest in a teapot.
Go Vols!
* that part is simpler than it may initially appear. I just spread the opponents out so that the even and odd years are roughly equally hard, while ensuring Teams A and B each play all 15 other teams at least once every 2 years.
