Is a 10-2 SEC champion good enough for playoffs?

#51
#51
RockyMtnsVol said:
Do y'all think that this is just a small window in time where we have a rare shot at a NC or is this the beginning of sustained success that we will see in years to come?
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I think a 10-2 or 11-1 gets our recruiting rolling like the last few years.
 
#53
#53
RockyMtnsVol said:
Thanks for humoring me with the discussion everybody. I tried to phrase my question in a way to not involve any devil's advocates in here and it seemed to work...

Do y'all think that this is just a small window in time where we have a rare shot at a NC or is this the beginning of sustained success that we will see in years to come?
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In my opinion, this is the year for the playoff to happen IF there was a chance. Which would require a split of the next 2 games. We are the most experienced team that UT has had in a decade. We lose a lot of leadership next year: JRM, Sutton, Dobbs, Hurd, Kamara (most likely), Vereen, Barnett, etc.

So, in my opinion, with so much turnover, I don't see our next shot at the playoffs being until 2018 or 2019. Unless Guarantano is the truth and just shows out like Swain and others have said he might, then we are breaking in a new QB, a new stable of RB's, and new defensive pieces all in 2017. That typically doesn't spell success.
 
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#54
#54
Two loses we are out without a lot of help.

A more interesting hypothetical I think is whether there is a scenario where a 1-loss Tennessee team with an overtime fumble recovery needed against App State and a hail mary needed against Georgia somehow gets left out

I think an undefeated or one-loss Clemson gets in so long as they win the ACC. I say either Michigan or OSU gets in with 0-1 losses if they win the Big 10.

That leaves two spots. I think an undefeated Washington team would get in over a 1-loss Tennessee team. That potentially leaves an undefeated Baylor and Houston.

Does a one loss Tennessee team get in over a undefeated Houston team with Oklahoma and Louisville wins?

What about an undefeated Baylor?
 
#55
#55
LSU made it in with 2 losses back in '07, and that was when you had to be in the top 2.

Rare occurrence obviously, but it can definitely happen.
 
#56
#56
LittleVol said:
I think 6 is the magic number. 1 and 2 would have a bye week and wate to play the winners of 3- 4, 5- 6.
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Why do they need another bye week? They've each already got almost month to rest and prep.

Bye weeks make sense when the post season immediately follows the season, like in the NFL, when it actually gives teams a chance to rest their players, but everyone here really already has that. All it really does here is make the preparation work less focused for the higher-seeded team.
 
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#60
#60
If our 2 losses occur with an injury-riddled lineup... and our victory in the SEC Championship game over an undefeated, #1 ranked Bama is dominating... and we stand before the committee as 1 of 4 two-loss options from which they have to consider...

yeah, I think we'd have a 50-50 chance.
 
#61
#61
I think its more likely we beat TAMU and Bama than a two loss team gets into the playoffs this year...
 
#62
#62
If we lose the next two games and then beat Bama in Atlanta , my guess is that no SEC team would get picked.

The winners of the Big10 and the ACC are likely to be undefeated. The winners of the PAC12 and Big12 could have only one loss or be undefeated.

Plus you could easily have a scenario in the Big10 where either UM or OSU goes undefeated and the other has only one loss, in which case both could be picked over a 2 loss team.

I don't think a 2 loss team gets picked this year.
 
#63
#63
Jim said:
What if 12-0 and then lose in sec championship?
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If UT is 12-0, that means they gave Bama a L. If that's the only game Bama loses and then they beat us in Atlanta, now you have a 1 loss Bama and a 1 loss UT except that UTs 1 loss came against Bama in the SECCG, in which case they would obviously chose Bama as the champions of the SEC.
 
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#64
#64
vols4sure said:
Two loses we are out without a lot of help.

A more interesting hypothetical I think is whether there is a scenario where a 1-loss Tennessee team with an overtime fumble recovery needed against App State and a hail mary needed against Georgia somehow gets left out

I think an undefeated or one-loss Clemson gets in so long as they win the ACC. I say either Michigan or OSU gets in with 0-1 losses if they win the Big 10.

That leaves two spots. I think an undefeated Washington team would get in over a 1-loss Tennessee team. That potentially leaves an undefeated Baylor and Houston.

Does a one loss Tennessee team get in over a undefeated Houston team with Oklahoma and Louisville wins?

What about an undefeated Baylor?
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If Tennesses's 1 loss comes in the regular season and they win the SEC, then they will get in provided there are not 4 other undefeated power 5 champions.

If the 1 loss comes in the SECCG, then forget it.
 
#65
#65
RockyMtnsVol said:
So just hypotheticals here but if we go 10-2 but win the SEC is that good enough for playoffs? What if there were multiple other 0 loss and 1 loss teams that are conference champs?

I think in any other conference no but in SEC possibly yes depending on how hyped you are and how far back you're ranked...
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With the scenario you provided, I don't think there would be much of a chance that UT would make it in. If there were multiple 0 and 1 loss conference championship teams, I would think they would get the nod over a 2 loss conference champion. It wouldn't be an easy decision, but I think, all things considered, the committee wouldn't pick us.
 
#68
#68
Here's a scary scenario to think about. We beat aTm in a close game but get boat raced by Bama. aTm beats Bama and we rematch them in the SEC championship. We beat aTm in another close game. Do we make it into the playoffs with that bad loss to the only "great" team on our schedule with no chance for a rematch?
 
#70
#70
MWAVolfan said:
If UT is 12-0, that means they gave Bama a L. If that's the only game Bama loses and then they beat us in Atlanta, now you have a 1 loss Bama and a 1 loss UT except that UTs 1 loss came against Bama in the SECCG, in which case they would obviously chose Bama as the champions of the SEC.
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I was wondering what the chance would be that bama AND UT would make it in. In this scenario, before the seccg is played, UT would likely be ranked #1 and bama would likely be ranked 2, 3, or 4. Say #3 bama squeaks by #1 UT. Does UT fall all the way to #5 or worse. Of course all of this conjecture is likely to get blown out of the water this weekend.
 
#71
#71
Jim said:
I was wondering what the chance would be that bama AND UT would make it in. In this scenario, before the seccg is played, UT would likely be ranked #1 and bama would likely be ranked 2, 3, or 4. Say #3 bama squeaks by #1 UT. Does UT fall all the way to #5 or worse. Of course all of this conjecture is likely to get blown out of the water this weekend.
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Last year we saw defending national champion OSU, with more NFL talent than I've seen in years and one of the top 2 CFB head coaches, lose only 1 game on a last second field goal to a playoff team. The playoff committee ranked a 1 loss freaking Iowa team over OSU at the end. If that team wasn't even considered for the playoffs then we wouldn't be in your scenario either.
 
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#72
#72
orangepridenation said:
LSU made it in with 2 losses back in '07, and that was when you had to be in the top 2.

Rare occurrence obviously, but it can definitely happen.
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That was the same year that Missouri and Kansas were numbers 1 and 2 going into their game. UCF, Boston College, and WVU were the top 5 late in the season as well. Had it not been for all of those teams absolutely crapping the bed in last half of November, OSU and LSU would never have played. That year wasn't just crazy, it was black voodoo magic levels of absurdity. Like Tennessee was seriously a couple of plays going differently away from being national champions....

As for the question of the OP, if there was a year where that scenario could happen this would be it. The last two years of the playoff? Not a chance in hell it was happening. But this year could very well produce a double dip from one conference, so why not a 2 loss team?

It isn't completely out of the question that Washington goes to sleep in a regular season game, and gets stunned in the PAC 12 championship game. And/or Houston lays an egg late in the season, like Boise St has done in years past. And/or Wisconsin doesn't lose another game until the B1G championship, producing a conference with 3 1 loss teams that look pretty darn good. And/or (and this is a big one) LSU absolutely plays to their full potential, and wins out. Alabama loses to Tennessee and LSU, A&M beats Tennessee but loses to LSU and Bama, and it ends up being LSU v Tennessee in the SECCG.

Doesn't matter who wins that, because if all of that plays out, or most of it, it will be time to grab the popcorn come selection sunday, and get ready to see the playoff instantly expanded to at least 6 teams for 2017.
 
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#74
#74
RockyMtnsVol said:
So just hypotheticals here but if we go 10-2 but win the SEC is that good enough for playoffs? What if there were multiple other 0 loss and 1 loss teams that are conference champs?

I think in any other conference no but in SEC possibly yes depending on how hyped you are and how far back you're ranked...
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1 loss, yes. 2 losses, very unlikely to just flat no.
 
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