Good article... If only some Cabinet member (looking at you Vance) had the backbone to force Trump to recognize the very predictable realities of the giant sh*tshow he's created, we wouldn't be stuck in this quagmire.
Donald's choices will continue to degrade from between bad to worse while the economy stumbles and his core constituency slowly comes to realize he's not acting in their interest.
War on Iran Backfired
Foreign Affairs
Seventeen years ago, while serving as an Iran desk officer in the U.S. State Department, I asked a more veteran colleague about the latest inflammatory statement by Mahmood Ahmadinejad, then the Iranian president. My colleague responded: “Stop paying attention to Ahmadinejad. Only focus on...
www.foreignaffairs.com
Snippet...
"...UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Despite the tactical brilliance of its joint offensive with Israel, strategic success remains elusive for the United States. Trump went to war against a country of 92 million people with no clear plan for what would happen after the guns fell silent. He initially declared that victory would be achieved if the Iranian people rose up and dismantled the Islamic Republic themselves—an extraordinary and unrealistic request. The regime’s horrific crackdown in January produced no meaningful defections from the regime or security services, and government leaders have already shown they are willing to kill as many of their own people as needed to stay in power.
In 2023, while serving as Iran director at the National Security Council, I attended a diplomatic meeting with an Iranian official in the aftermath of a major protest. Surprisingly, the official acknowledged strong opposition to the Islamic Republic. Yet he cautioned that the United States failed to understand that an equal number of Iranians were prepared to die for the regime and pointed out that most Iranians just wanted a better day-to-day life. Although he didn’t break it down into numbers, I began thinking of this as the 20-20-60 ratio. Twenty percent of Iranians are dedicated to the downfall of the Islamic Republic, 20 to its preservation, and the remainder to a better life.
I long assumed that after Khamenei died, the Iranians who wanted a better life would join forces with those strongly opposed to the Islamic Republic and force the country’s leaders down a different path than the one the supreme leader had charted. But the bitter irony is that the U.S. and Israeli approach to the recent war afforded Khamenei a martyr’s death—a gift to the regime, as it diverted attention away from the Islamic Republic’s failures. It elevated Khamenei’s hard-line son and turned much of the nation’s focus toward surviving an external assault. All these outcomes only marginalize the silent majority of Iranians who just want a measure of well-being.
Moving forward, Iran does not need to score major military successes every day. The regime only needs to inflict enough periodic damage to keep regional partners, markets, and the American public jittery. Despite catastrophic damage to the Iranian navy and other branches of the military, periodic drone attacks on tankers attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz are probably enough to keep traffic snarled in a shipping channel responsible for a fifth of global oil supply."