Iran

[Smokey123]

It’s ok we’ll just send them another 5 billion

 

[SubVet676]

"Beaten and decimated" yet we still couldn't send a US Navy boat through the strait. Hopefully he's just blustering to find a quick out of this mess

I've read enough of your posts to know that you are a very intelligent person. You're also a Mod, so I need to tread lightly here...

I don't get into politics, legal matters, etc. because I don't know much about them.

Naval warfare? I have a bachelor's degree from the University of the North Atlantic. I majored in Undersea Warfare, with a minor in Joint Operations.

The Straits of Hormuz are about 100 statute miles long. Width runs from roughly 21-60 statute miles, with the narrowest point being in the "elbow".

It takes an average merchant / tanker, traveling at a nominal speed of say 16 knots, roughly 6 hours to run the gauntlet. With a "middle to the shore of Iran" distance of...say 10 miles...a 250 knot drone launched from Iran can cover 25 miles in 6 minutes. 10 miles in less than 3 minutes. Now, launch 20 of them at once, and you see the problem. Yes, the Iranian Navy is now just a flag with virtually no ships. The Iranian Air Force is non-existent. But the IRGC still commands a bunch of drones, "dumb" missiles, and drone skiffs that can wreak havoc on an unarmed tanker, and by sheer volume of numbers overwhelm, for example, an Arleigh Burke destroyer despite the huge technological advantage the U.S. possesses.

AWACS, E2C's, CAP, etc. can only do so much. By the time a "look-down, shoot-down" asset detects a launch and assigns an interceptor, 90 seconds of those 3 minutes are gone.

It's a numbers game, pj, and in this case the US cannot afford to have the media broadcast an image of a US Destroyer with a hole in its' side because 1 out of 20 got through.

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. To solve this 2026 problem, we have to go back to WW2, and the Battle of the Atlantic.

Convoy system. Gather up 20 tankers in 2 rows of 10; put an Aegis destroyer on each corner; provide high and low-level CAP; and roll with it. That tilts the scales in our favor.

Which is why the CiC is now calling on our reliable allies with naval power to join in. In unity there is strength, as it is with numbers. Throw up a shield that they cannot penetrate.

Personally, I think this ends when (a) Israel wipes out anyone with an IRGC membership card, and (b) Trump finally does authorize the bombing of Kharg Island petroleum facilities (which I think he will), and cuts off Iran's source of income. But regime change will have to come from within. The people of Iran either want it, or they don't. If they do, this may be their last chance to get it in their lifetime.

It is what it is. I'm wrong a lot. Trump is unpredictable. Iran is even more unpredictable. Israel is the enemy no one with a room-temperature IQ really wants.

It ain't over by a long shot. But I don't see how Iran gets out of this one with their current regime still intact, or at least capable of anything more then empty rhetoric.

 

[Carl Pickens]

So the answer is "trust me bro"?

Forgive me if I don't want to take the word of a country who has been caught on numerous occasions spying on us, and trying to steal classified information.

That’s fair, but everyone spies on everyone else….. that’s why I think there is something we don’t know that instigated the attack

 

[Carl Pickens]

It's a bad look for you to go out of your way to mischaracterize what I said, but that is to be expected from you.

I asked you directly if you thought the regime was extremist and you didn’t answer. You compared them to other middle eastern regimes if I recall correctly.

 

[SubVet676]

I'll add that you do not deploy a Marine Amphibious Group...such as the Tripoli...without a plan to employ them. You don't move an obvious target into a theatre of operations unless you plan to use it.

That concerns me. There's only one place those Marines could reasonably be put ashore.

 

[BeardedVol]

I asked you directly if you thought the regime was extremist and you didn’t answer. You compared them to other middle eastern regimes if I recall correctly.

I answered you, you just didn't like my answer because you're still stuck in the "Saudi wahabbists are different" mindset.

 

[JOEY’S ALL VOL !!!]

You know some of the things I’ve been through. My oldest son told me something that he did as a kid and was ashamed of. I gotta say that I was thinking “wow that’s not that big a deal “. But it was traumatic for him. I can’t imagine belittling him or his feelings because it was traumatic for him and you never know what other traumas it might be connected to.

Sometimes as family we should just stfu and listen.
Anything is better than “suck it up buttercup “

 

[newarkvol]

Regimes have changed through far less than military air strikes (see Iran in 1979). So I’m not sure why you’d believe air strikes cannot achieve that.

How fanatic the regime is, is not the key factor. But rather how aligned are they with the population, which is pretty low.

You also seem to be discounting the fact that no country has ever had the type of air power we currently have

Uuuhh....that was a different set of circumstances.

Robert Pape’s Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (1996) argues that strategic bombing to punish civilians is ineffective, while air power works best through "denial"—targeting military forces and logistical infrastructure. Pape asserts that coercion works by changing the adversary's cost-benefit analysis of military objectives, rather than destroying national morale.
Air University (af.edu) +2
Key Aspects of Pape’s Theory:

• Ineffectiveness of Strategic Bombing: Pape contends that campaigns targeting the enemy’s economy or leadership (punishment) rarely succeed in coercing a state to surrender, often making the civilian population more loyal and resilient.
• The Power of Denial: The most effective air strategy is "denial," which involves using air power to hamper an enemy’s military operations, thereby making it impossible for them to achieve their goals on the ground.
• Integration with Land Forces: Pape advocates for the combined use of air and land power (a "hammer and anvil" approach), rather than relying on airpower as a standalone solution.
• Analysis of Historical Cases: The book examines over 30 air campaigns (including World War II and the Gulf War), arguing that "higher levels of civilian vulnerability have no effect on the chances of coercion success".
• Modern Context (2026): As of March 2026, Pape argues that current air campaigns, such as against Iran, rely on massive precision-guided strikes reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War, but he maintains that bombing alone is insufficient to achieve strategic goals like regime change.
  
  
  apps.dtic.mil +4

 

[newarkvol]

Robert Pape cont...

Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change. I don’t mean rarely. I mean never... The pattern is consistent: air campaigns aimed at political transformation almost always harden the target instead."​

The Illusion of Control

Airstrikes, Iran, and the Dangerous Pattern History Keeps Repeating

escalationtrap.substack.com

I can provide some peer reviewed articles and book recommendations but you seem more of an audio/visual person

 

[StarRaider]

iranian mafia... who knew?

 

[Carl Pickens]

I answered you, you just didn't like my answer because you're still stuck in the "Saudi wahabbists are different" mindset.

I never said anything about the Saudis. You’re the one that brought the other regimes into the discussion. Deflecting clown

 

[MAD]

Beware of the foreign accounts on X made to look like they are from the US.

 

[KB5252]

I've said before iran is trap to draw away our military resources to weaken the home land and leave it open to invasion. The end game for trump is all of us dead. An election isnt going to fix it. He'll undermine the election process. Impeachment is the only way, but that only works if his followers wake up and see how dire the outcome is for just going along with this and trumps other moronic policies.

Don't be silly, there isn't a military force on earth that is even semi seriously contemplating an invasion of the US.

 

[BreatheUT]

This thread feels detached from reality. Massive strikes in Iran leaving them without anything resembling a functional economy. They lost their leader and his son is likely in a coma. They have no Air Force. Their navy is being depleted. 90% of their missile launches are being intercepted.

But if you read this thread people will openly proclaim Iran is winning.

Bizarro world. I've been resigned to the fact that this board is much like the real world. There are some good people on here, but there are some bad ones too that come in all sorts of flavors.

 

[CobbVol]

One of the Grand Poobahs of the TDS contingent showing his intellect ...

 

[TVOLS]

This thread feels detached from reality. Massive strikes in Iran leaving them without anything resembling a functional economy. They lost their leader and his son is likely in a coma. They have no Air Force. Their navy is being depleted. 90% of their missile launches are being intercepted.

But if you read this thread people will openly proclaim Iran is winning.

Depends on the age of the poster who has seen this kind of stuff from .gov over and over no matter who’s in office. I don’t know about you, but I’m not winning this “operation” regardless of the outcome and I consider myself your normal everyday living American.

 

[VAVol85]

This thread feels detached from reality. Massive strikes in Iran leaving them without anything resembling a functional economy. They lost their leader and his son is likely in a coma. They have no Air Force. Their navy is being depleted. 90% of their missile launches are being intercepted.

But if you read this thread people will openly proclaim Iran is winning.

I have mostly abandoned this thread because it’s hard to find good information or new perspectives among all the repetitive nonsense, reflexive Trump-hate and Israel-hate, and personal insults. I skim the comments every now and then, but it’s pretty depressing.

 

[allstar34]

It’s ok we’ll just send them another 5 billion

This is the ploy to have Iran attack even harder thinking they will win. Then Israel pushes the big button and doesn't have to feel bad because they are out of missiles. Then Iran is erased. Then gas goes back to normal prices. Then President Trump wins his 4th term (2020 was his too). Then we kick out all the muslim men. Then we keep all the pretty muslim ladies and kick out the ugly ones. Then Jeffery Epstein comes back and says it was all a distraction the whole time to keep lefties focused on him and not the war.

 

[newarkvol]

This is the ploy to have Iran attack even harder thinking they will win. Then Israel pushes the big button and doesn't have to feel bad because they are out of missiles. Then Iran is erased. Then gas goes back to normal prices. Then President Trump wins his 4th term (2020 was his too). Then we kick out all the muslim men. Then we keep all the pretty muslim ladies and kick out the ugly ones. Then Jeffery Epstein comes back and says it was all a distraction the whole time to keep lefties focused on him and not the war.

Hegseth Jr.??!!, Hegseeeeth Jr.!!!! Go to BED!

BTW, LIKED on your comment:
"So when we lose mid terms because of the Iran War… is there still a path to a 2028 Victory for Republicans? I feel that DJT has completely destroyed any lead/head start we had for the next Presidency. I think a ceasefire and Declaring Victory asap is the only path we have."

 

[allstar34]

Hegseth Jr.??!!, Hegseeeeth Jr.!!!! Go to BED!

lol I was just going Alex Jones and kidding.
I wish this was all over. I just paid almost $100 to fill up my truck. Groceries are going to sky rocket soon with the increase in fuel.

Don’t be mean to me. I’m just a retired nationalist, fascist that reads posts in here when I can’t sleep or I’m bored.

 

[allstar34]

Hegseth Jr.??!!, Hegseeeeth Jr.!!!! Go to BED!

BTW, LIKED on your comment:
"So when we lose mid terms because of the Iran War… is there still a path to a 2028 Victory for Republicans? I feel that DJT has completely destroyed any lead/head start we had for the next Presidency. I think a ceasefire and Declaring Victory asap is the only path we have."

Did you think I was being serious on the post you replied to? I just got home from 6 hours of 180 mph, fully caffeinated, commission only fun with the local community and surrounding areas. Lots of smiling, helping improve lives, and satisfying wives.

I can form sentences better than that my brother I would never be serious and use and then and then and then and then and then. If I was being serious a lot more people would’ve shot me down already