Iran

[volfanhill]

We need someone the world can take seriously and who takes the job Americans need seriously

With all do respect this is a mistake many make. The POTUS gets respect no matter who they are or party. You lead the largest economy and powerful military in the world you get the big chair. Even if your a moron. See Trump and Biden

 

[hog88]

With all do respect this is a mistake many make. The POTUS gets respect no matter who they are or party. You lead the largest economy and powerful military in the world you get the big chair. Even if your a moron. See Trump and Biden

I disagree. POTUS no matter who they are get deference from foreign leaders not necessarily respect.

 

[KB5252]

With all do respect this is a mistake many make. The POTUS gets respect no matter who they are or party. You lead the largest economy and powerful military in the world you get the big chair. Even if your a moron. See Trump and Biden

That's really the point I'm making, no one really trusts Trump. They respect out of necessity but literally no one trusts him.

 

[MontyPython]

The Guardian:

"...Past administrations had been war-gaming an Iran invasion for decades – but with Trump in the White House, observers said that the rigidly closed circle of advisers around him, the collapse of an interagency process in the government and his erratic decision-making process made this unlike any other US military campaign in recent memory.

“This is hard under any circumstances but especially with so little [evidence of] planning,” said Philip Gordon, the former national security adviser to Kamala Harris and the White House coordinator for the Middle East under Barack Obama.

Of the growing chaos in the Middle East, he said: “It is surprising that Trump is surprised.”

Previous administration had “gamed out” potential conflict scenarios with Iran “many times and constantly”, said Gordon, now of the Brookings Institution, but regularly ran into exactly the problems that the Trump administration is now facing: Iran targeted neighbouring countries to threaten a regional war and closed the strait of Hormuz, threatening the global oil trade and driving up energy prices.

“One of the reasons we did the nuclear deal and didn’t try to change the regime is exactly what’s happening,” he said of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2018.


The military campaign to eliminate the Iranian leadership has achieved considerable success. The early strikes that killed Khamenei and dozens of his senior advisers were the product of a collaboration between Israeli on-the-ground intelligence and US signals intelligence. Trump seemed poised to match the success of the 12-day war, when the US delivered surgical strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme and then exited the conflict.

But Iran has continued to fight. And as Trump and top officials such as the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, herald the complete destruction of the Iranian leadership in successive briefings, there are no clear explanations for what the US will call victory in the conflict, and how it will now reverse Iran’s decision to squeeze the global oil supply.

“The military planning has been stellar,” said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on US foreign policy on Iran. “That said, politically, this is increasingly looking like a cluster ****. And the reason is that step one of any plan is to establish a goal – the targeting should be in pursuit of that goal. The United States has this backwards. We have the targeting, but we don’t have a clear goal, and that lies not on the Pentagon planners, but on Donald Trump.”

 

[General Jack]

Trump says US ‘obliterated’ targets in strike on key Iranian oil hub

Trump said the U.S. bombed Iran’s Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, and warned against interference in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.foxnews.com

trump says we just "obliterated" military targets on Karg Island oil hub.... tbd on whether this was the same type of obliteration that may or may not have been the impetus for war.

Related to Karg Island, Per Fox News:

"It has a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, and roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through it. Most of those exports are shipped to China and India, underscoring the island’s importance not only to Iran’s energy trade but also to broader global oil markets.

That makes Kharg Island one of Iran’s most sensitive and strategically important pieces of infrastructure. Any military action there could have consequences well beyond Iran, raising the risk of disruptions to crude flows, shipping traffic and energy prices across the region."

If you think oil /gas prices are high now, buckle your seat belts.

 

[lawgator1]

The Guardian:

"...Past administrations had been war-gaming an Iran invasion for decades – but with Trump in the White House, observers said that the rigidly closed circle of advisers around him, the collapse of an interagency process in the government and his erratic decision-making process made this unlike any other US military campaign in recent memory.

“This is hard under any circumstances but especially with so little [evidence of] planning,” said Philip Gordon, the former national security adviser to Kamala Harris and the White House coordinator for the Middle East under Barack Obama.

Of the growing chaos in the Middle East, he said: “It is surprising that Trump is surprised.”

Previous administration had “gamed out” potential conflict scenarios with Iran “many times and constantly”, said Gordon, now of the Brookings Institution, but regularly ran into exactly the problems that the Trump administration is now facing: Iran targeted neighbouring countries to threaten a regional war and closed the strait of Hormuz, threatening the global oil trade and driving up energy prices.

“One of the reasons we did the nuclear deal and didn’t try to change the regime is exactly what’s happening,” he said of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2018.


The military campaign to eliminate the Iranian leadership has achieved considerable success. The early strikes that killed Khamenei and dozens of his senior advisers were the product of a collaboration between Israeli on-the-ground intelligence and US signals intelligence. Trump seemed poised to match the success of the 12-day war, when the US delivered surgical strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme and then exited the conflict.

But Iran has continued to fight. And as Trump and top officials such as the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, herald the complete destruction of the Iranian leadership in successive briefings, there are no clear explanations for what the US will call victory in the conflict, and how it will now reverse Iran’s decision to squeeze the global oil supply.

“The military planning has been stellar,” said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on US foreign policy on Iran. “That said, politically, this is increasingly looking like a cluster ****. And the reason is that step one of any plan is to establish a goal – the targeting should be in pursuit of that goal. The United States has this backwards. We have the targeting, but we don’t have a clear goal, and that lies not on the Pentagon planners, but on Donald Trump.”

This is the problem. No goal defined. And it keeps being changed, daily, sometimes hourly.

The theory that this is some kind of 4 dimensional chess by Trump, touted by the usual suspects, is laughably dumb.

 

[volfanhill]

I disagree. POTUS no matter who they are get deference from foreign leaders not necessarily respect.

That's more accurate

 

[General Jack]

This is the problem. No goal defined. And it keeps being changed, daily, sometimes hourly.

The theory that this is some kind of 4 dimensional chess by Trump, touted by the usual suspects, is laughably dumb.

Approaching the moment where trump sets himself on fire politically.

Markets are becoming highly volatile and there's warning indicators flashing all across the economy.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

None of them have any right to be here so they all gotta go. The old saying... "you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here!"

Classic non-answer.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Why did Biden let in these Iranian Sleeper Cells you are talking about.

You realize sleeper cells typically operate over years, and even decades, right?

Of course you don't. A goldfish rivals your memory span.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Approaching the moment where trump sets himself on fire politically.

Markets are becoming highly volatile and there's warning indicators flashing all across the economy.

You'd think it would, but there's a stout base of cousin kissers who will find a way to support the man under any circumstance.

 

[General Jack]

You'd think it would, but there's a stout base of cousin kissers who will find a way to support the man under any circumstance.

I'm with you. Cults are hard to leave.

But I do believe when the markets tank, and it appears to be starting, and when a bunch of Fox News watchers start getting nervous and realize that their useful idiot is no longer useful and a bigger idiot than they ever imagined.... they will start to turn on him. There's already been some uncomfortable segments on Fox News.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I'm with you. Cults are hard to leave.

But I do believe when the markets tank, and it appears to be starting, and when a bunch of Fox News watchers start getting nervous and realize that their useful idiot is no longer useful and a bigger idiot than they ever imagined.... they will start to turn on him. There's already been some uncomfortable segments on Fox News.

All I can do is go from selling puts to buying them. I really think this needs to be the big correction catalyst because I'm growing tired of playing conservatively wondering when it could start.

 

[General Jack]

All I can do is go from selling puts to buying them. I really think this needs to be the big correction catalyst because I'm growing tired of playing conservatively wondering when it could start.

I don't play with that exotic stuff.

But there should be some great buys later this year. Keeping a lot of cash on the sideline for the first time in anticipation.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I don't play with that exotic stuff.

But there should be some great buys later this year. Keeping a lot of cash on the sideline for the first time in anticipation.

I have been in the habit of selling OTM weekly puts and we're on my 9th consecutive week of having them expire worthless. My brokerage feels like a HYSA on steroids.

I used to buy shares, and sell covered calls just above entry for that week. It's something I'll use agsin when the world stops being insane. Can't touch it now.

 

[General Jack]

I have been in the habit of selling OTM weekly puts and we're on my 9th consecutive week of having them expire worthless. My brokerage feels like a HYSA on steroids.

I used to buy shares, and sell covered calls just above entry for that week. It's something I'll use agsin when the world stops being insane. Can't touch it now.

We are in an incredibly unpredictable time between having an erratic and morally bankrupt and malignant narcissist of a president, the rapidly accelerating consolidation of wealth and power and the onset of AI.

 

[lawgator1]

All I can do is go from selling puts to buying them. I really think this needs to be the big correction catalyst because I'm growing tired of playing conservatively wondering when it could start.

No doubt we were overdue for a correction. This happens to be a catalyst and one just has to hope that once the Iranian conflict is over that there's momentum to bounce back. I guess I worry that the AI bubble, private credit, inflation, and the debt don't just pile on to the point that the correction turns into calamity.

 

[CobbVol]

Cutting off their revenue via Kharg is probably the beginning of the end. Nearly every king, ruler, and dictator in history has found out that when you are not able to pay the military/guard their days were numbered.

From the article:

Trump said the attack was carried out by United States Central Command. The operation targeted military sites on the island.

Kharg Island is the main terminal for Iran crude oil exports. Reports show that about 90 to 95 percent of Iran crude oil shipments pass through this island.

Why has US attacked Kharg Island, where is it located, and why is it very important for Iran? Donald Trump warning explained. Here's if US will take control of island

Why has US attacked Kharg Island, where is it located, and why is it very important for Iran? The strike was announced by Donald Trump. US forces targeted military sites on Kharg Island. The island handles most Iran oil exports. The move follows tension in the Strait of Hormuz and global energy...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[DinkinFlicka]

No doubt we were overdue for a correction. This happens to be a catalyst and one just has to hope that once the Iranian conflict is over that there's momentum to bounce back. I guess I worry that the AI bubble, private credit, inflation, and the debt don't just pile on to the point that the correction turns into calamity.

On paper, this bitch is primed to plummet.

It just won't man. Drives me nuts.

 

[CagleMtnVol]

Cutting off their revenue via Kharg is probably the beginning of the end. Nearly every king, ruler, and dictator in history has found out that when you are not able to pay the military/guard their days were numbered.

From the article:

Trump said the attack was carried out by United States Central Command. The operation targeted military sites on the island.

Kharg Island is the main terminal for Iran crude oil exports. Reports show that about 90 to 95 percent of Iran crude oil shipments pass through this island.

Why has US attacked Kharg Island, where is it located, and why is it very important for Iran? Donald Trump warning explained. Here's if US will take control of island

Why has US attacked Kharg Island, where is it located, and why is it very important for Iran? The strike was announced by Donald Trump. US forces targeted military sites on Kharg Island. The island handles most Iran oil exports. The move follows tension in the Strait of Hormuz and global energy...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Wouldn't be surprised if we wake up one morning before long and it's being controlled by US Special Forces.

 

[General Jack]

Wouldn't be surprised if we wake up one morning before long and it's being controlled by US Special Forces.

Boots on the ground eh?

 

[CagleMtnVol]

Boots on the ground eh?

We've probably had Special Forces on the ground since this started. We certainly know CIA is on the ground.

Remember SFs go into countries all the time and we never know about it.

Wouldn't be surprised if US SFs teams were the main force in the recent Mexico cartel raids but of course Mexico got/took full credit.

 

[General Jack]

We've probably had Special Forces on the ground since this started. We certainly know CIA is on the ground.

Remember SFs go into countries all the time and we never know about it.

Wouldn't be surprised if US SFs teams were the main force in the recent Mexico cartel raids but of course Mexico got/took full credit.

Boots on the ground implies extended duration. An amphibious assault ship is on the way with a couple thousand Marines. Different mission profile than special forces missions. Everyone will know they're there.

 

[EasternVol]

I’m wondering if this might blow up in their face. They’ve already pissed off all of their neighbors and this may piss off everyone.

At this point though, what have they got to lose?

 

[EasternVol]

We need someone the world can take seriously and who takes the job Americans need seriously

Unless someone unexpected runs it looks like we'll be SOL yet again.