Iran

[KB5252]

View attachment 818779

I think Trump has prosecuted this without a clear directive and goal but I find that tweet odd. Considering the completely different set of circumstances and prosecution of the operations. US officials, particularly armed forces clearly know the difference between a target acquisition and extraction mission to an air captain with no ground support.

Sounds like this person is presenting an ill informed opinion and attributing it to "officials".

 

[05_never_again]

Trumps going to announce tonight that he's releasing 20% of the strategic oil reserve. Other G 7 countries to do similar

Oil is falling on news of Trump saying that the war is "very complete, pretty much." Whatever that means. Whether the Iranians actually leave the Strait alone, or ships and their insurers end up going through it, is another question.

 

[BeardedVol]

We're all in luck, Trump has checked in with his boss, and may soon have the all clear to end hostilities.

Trump says Iran 'war is very complete,' talks to Putin: Reports

U.S. stock market indices rose on the heels of reported comments by President Donald Trump that the war against Iran could be over sooner than first expected.

www.cnbc.com

 

[n_huffhines]

Support for it was very wishy-washy in both the general public and Senate before it began.

Americans Believe U.S. Participation in Gulf War a Decade Ago Worthwhile

Today marks the 10th anniversary of the end of the Persian Gulf War, when U.S. and allied troops forced the Iraqis out of Kuwait and a cease-fire was declared. According to a new Gallup poll, conducted February 19-21, as Americans reflect on their country's participation in that action a decade...

news.gallup.com

As I mentioned earlier, Congressional testimony by a Kuwaiti girl that was demonstrated after the war to be completely fabricated played a not-insignificant role in changing public opinion into supporting removing Saddam from Kuwait. The public and the rest of the world really had to be convinced into supporting that war, for the reasons I mentioned earlier (i.e., it wasn't a clean "they attacked us so we're going to attack them" deal).

If Desert Storm ended up heading south like Afghanistan or Iraq Part 2 did, it would have been a very politically divisive and eventually immensely unpopular conflict, just like the other 2 ended up being (and were both broadly publically supported before they began). It ended up being a very successful operation, so the criticism of it initially kind of ends up being forgotten. I don't think that war was successful because it had broad public support; it (ended up) having broad public support because it was successful. It's not altogether different from fans jumping on the bandwagon of a successful sports team, or a fan yelling "no no no!" before a basketball player jacks up a wild, contested 3 then cheers "yeah, great shot!" after it goes in.

Gallup says 60% support. War powers passed the house easy. Idk, man. Agree to disagree.

 

[KB5252]

My views: we've already attacked. I will never root for us to lose or be embarrassed militarily. I also feel obligation to the Iranian people. If we leave it as is we have failed them. I also do not want American boots on the ground.

What a frickin mess

 

[05_never_again]

Gallup says 60% support. War powers passed the house easy. Idk, man. Agree to disagree.

After the war started and it appeared to be going well, yes, it gathered support. The public was pretty ambivalent about it before the war began, with even a majority opposing military action (51% against) the Thanksgiving before the invasion. The Senate vote also reflected that.

I don't think public opposition or support makes a war any more or less likely to turn out OK. The Afghanistan and Iraq Wars had immense public support (especially Afghanistan) before they began and they both ended up being quagmires. Smaller operations like Grenada, Panama, and Venezuela all turned out OK; Grenada and Panama had big public support, Venezuela did not. Even after Pearl Harbor was bombed, there was a rather large contingent of people who wanted to go to war just against Japan, but the war against the Germans turned out OK. Isolationist sentiments were a majority opinion before WWI; admittedly, before US entry into the war public opinion had changed on that though (merchant ship sinkings + Zimmerman telegram turned it into a clear "they are hitting or are about to hit us, so let's hit them" conflict).

I think we just disagree on the cause and effect of changes in public opinion.

 

[MontyPython]

We're all in luck, Trump has checked in with his boss, and may soon have the all clear to end hostilities.
View attachment 818805

Trump says Iran 'war is very complete,' talks to Putin: Reports

U.S. stock market indices rose on the heels of reported comments by President Donald Trump that the war against Iran could be over sooner than first expected.

www.cnbc.com

Trump is such a pathetic shmuck.

Predictable. Oil skyrockets and the markets tank. Response: ABORT!

To recap:

(1) No regime change. In fact, we have a new hard-line mullah in place.
(2) Nuclear program still intact. Iran now likely more motivated to build the bomb to join the nuke club. They'll likely tell international monitoring to go F themselves and move their bomb building facilities to deep, bunker-buster immune depths.
(3) Iran's conventional missile ability hit hard, but now with "peace" they can simply build it all back again.

Someone remind me why we started this war again. What did we achieve?

Rinse and repeat 6-12 months from now? When they got the bomb and/or we can't stop their nuclear ambitions.

Israel & Russia: DONNIE YOU'RE SUCH A GOOD BOY!!! That's a good, good boy.

 

[n_huffhines]

I don't think public opposition or support makes a war any more or less likely to turn out OK. The Afghanistan and Iraq Wars had immense public support (especially Afghanistan) before they began and they both ended up being quagmires. Smaller operations like Grenada, Panama, and Venezuela all turned out OK; Grenada and Panama had big public support, Venezuela did not. Even after Pearl Harbor was bombed, there was a rather large contingent of people who wanted to go to war just against Japan, but the war against the Germans turned out OK. Isolationist sentiments were a majority opinion before WWI; admittedly, before US entry into the war public opinion had changed on that though (merchant ship sinkings + Zimmerman telegram turned it into a clear "they are hitting or are about to hit us, so let's hit them" conflict).

I think we just disagree on the cause and effect of changes in public opinion.

To be clear, it's not causal. It's correlated.

If we have:

- good reason to enter war
- clear, attainable objectives

Then we are more likely to have public and congressional support, and we are also more likely to avoid an endless quagmire. It's not always going to work. Sometimes the public is lied to and we believe the government and support the war. But the point is our batting average for popular wars would get better because we'd eliminate Vietnam and Iran.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

My views: we've already attacked. I will never root for us to lose or be embarrassed militarily. I also feel obligation to the Iranian people. If we leave it as is we have failed them. I also do not want American boots on the ground.

What a frickin mess

I agree with all of this. We have already weakened the regime considerably but at some point the people of Iran are gonna have to take action and finish the job on the ground. Millions of people aren't going to take to the streets though when Israel and the US are still running airstrikes and cruise missiles...so this is really a complicated situation. Hope Mossad can keep knocking off members of the regime until theres nobody from the old government willing to take office because their life expectancy drops to a few days at best. You cant rule a country while hiding in an underground bunker hoping you wont be found...as we are simultaneously taking away all of the weapons they would like to turn on their own people in order to stay in power.

**we cant leave a vacuum over there or some ultra rich hardline Muslim will seize power and the people of Iran will be right back where this started. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" is not an acceptable outcome.

 

[JOEY’S ALL VOL !!!]

LMAO ok I’ll put you down for being ok with your government lying to you and everyone else

Apparently the voting populace of this country has been A okay with being lied to for more than a century now, evidenced by the fact that we continue to vote in and send the same professional liars to go to bat for us time and time again. We apparently can’t handle the truth.

 

[utvolpj]

My views: we've already attacked. I will never root for us to lose or be embarrassed militarily. I also feel obligation to the Iranian people. If we leave it as is we have failed them. I also do not want American boots on the ground.

What a frickin mess

So now that we've unnecessarily bombed them we have an obligation? How many other countries do we need to pay to fix before prioritizing our own?

 

[05_never_again]

To be clear, it's not causal. It's correlated.

If we have:

- good reason to enter war
- clear, attainable objectives

Then we are more likely to have public and congressional support, and we are also more likely to avoid an endless quagmire. It's not always going to work. Sometimes the public is lied to and we believe the government and support the war. But the point is our batting average for popular wars would get better because we'd eliminate Vietnam and Iran.

Ok, well they are correlated, but we disagree why they are correlated. I think they're correlated because the public does bandwagon jumping (both on and off), ex post facto.

In the Persian Gulf War, I actually do think there were some good reasons to enter that war and there were clear, attainable objectives. Public support, however, was pretty lukewarm prior to the war. The public was also outright lied to in efforts to support the war (which I think most people forget about because the war turned out OK). It ended up going well, which is why it ended up ultimately having broad popular support.

In Afghanistan, there was a good reason to enter war but we were short on clear objectives. In the Iraq War, neither of those things existed.

Both wars had considerable public and Congressional support before they began, both ended up being failures, and both ended up being extremely publicly unpopular. Bandwagon jumping. If the Iraq War went great operationally, I don't even think the public would have cared about or maybe even remembered being lied to about WMD.

 

[KB5252]

I agree with all of this. We have already weakened the regime considerably but at some point the people of Iran are gonna have to take action and finish the job on the ground. Millions of people aren't going to take to the streets though when Israel and the US are still running airstrikes and cruise missiles...so this is really a complicated situation. Hope Mossad can keep knocking off members of the regime until theres nobody from the old government willing to take office because their life expectancy drops to a few days at best. You cant rule a country while hiding in an underground bunker hoping you wont be found...as we are simultaneously taking away all of the weapons they would like to turn on their own people in order to stay in power.

**we cant leave a vacuum over there or some ultra rich hardline Muslim will seize power and the people of Iran will be right back where this started. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" is not an acceptable outcome.

The Iranian military is still strong, as it stands they have more than enough military to crush any uprising.

In order for any change we must first see power fragment, as it stands now that hasn't and doesn't look like it is likely to happen

 

[NorthDallas40]

Apparently the voting populace of this country has been A okay with being lied to for more than a century now, evidenced by the fact that we continue to vote in and send the same professional liars to go to bat for us time and time again. We apparently can’t handle the truth.

You’re not wrong. That’s actually more of indictment of our idiot citizens of submit however.

 

[MontyPython]

Apparently the voting populace of this country has been A okay with being lied to for more than a century now, evidenced by the fact that we continue to vote in and send the same professional liars to go to bat for us time and time again. We apparently can’t handle the truth.

Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony. You can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you.

 

[lawgator1]

The problem with these sorts of actions is that we go in full of vim and vigor, then it goes kind of sideways with repercussions we did not fully expect, and so we stop short of the final goals because the costs to actually achieve them is higher that we thought.

We declare victory, but by definition its unsatisfying. Its not like a nation formally surrendering on the deck of a ship. This is just a different form of the status quo. And we live with the consequences.

 

[Matt2496]

LOL. He initial called it a "combat operation". At least now he acknowledges that it's a war.

 

[KB5252]

So now that we've unnecessarily bombed them we have an obligation? How many other countries do we need to pay to fix before prioritizing our own?

Then what was all this for if not for regime change? Seems like a huge waste with nothing gained.

And while I agree open ended hostilities can't and shouldn't be sustained I find it disappointing the only "good" thing that may have come from this isn't likely to happen.

Not to mention we leave a regime that will likely do whatever it takes to gain nuclear weapons, and with good cause. Pretty stupid situation we find ourselves

Like I said, what a damn mess.

 

[Matt2496]

I agree with all of this. We have already weakened the regime considerably but at some point the people of Iran are gonna have to take action and finish the job on the ground. Millions of people aren't going to take to the streets though when Israel and the US are still running airstrikes and cruise missiles...so this is really a complicated situation. Hope Mossad can keep knocking off members of the regime until theres nobody from the old government willing to take office because their life expectancy drops to a few days at best. You cant rule a country while hiding in an underground bunker hoping you wont be found...as we are simultaneously taking away all of the weapons they would like to turn on their own people in order to stay in power.

**we cant leave a vacuum over there or some ultra rich hardline Muslim will seize power and the people of Iran will be right back where this started. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" is not an acceptable outcome.

Millions are never going to take to the streets now. If they protest/revolt, they will just get mowed down by the current regime.

They are severely weakened in terms of their missiles, navy, and air force. Unfortunately, they don't need those things to quell uprisings.

 

[utvolpj]

Then what was all this for if not for regime change? Seems like a huge waste with nothing gained.

And while I agree open ended hostilities can't and shouldn't be sustained I find it disappointing the only "good" thing that may have come from this isn't likely to happen.

Not to mention we leave a regime that will likely do whatever it takes to gain nuclear weapons, and with good cause. Pretty stupid situation we find ourselves

Like I said, what a damn mess.

It was because Israel wanted to do it. When has our stated goal been regime change?

When has Iran stated their goal is a nuke weapon? Bibi repeating it for decades doesn't count. They were twice at the negotiating table when we first bombed them. We didn't care

 

[MontyPython]

$5 on Trump says the war v. Iran is back on again at full speed tomorrow, given the financial markets calmed down today.

 

[DuckInAPen]

I'm old enough to remember that it used to be that America put their political differences aside when our boys were off fighting. That sure isn't the case today. That'
s a damn shame. There will be a time to sort this out politically but for right now let's support them and push for a prompt end and bring them home safely

The time to sort this out politically was before we attacked. The means of sorting it out politically was to submit the question to the deliberation of Congress, to which branch alone our Founders gave the power to declare war. Because the executive usurped Congress's authority (and because Congress allowed its authority to be usurped), the nation finds itself having to debate the question as the war is being waged (the alternative is to leave the executive to do whatever it wants, in whatever way it wants, for whatever reasons it wants, for however long it wants).

Americans (with rare exceptions) support our soldiers. Part of supporting them is ensuring that their lives are risked only in the pursuit of goals that are necessary, achievable, and clearly defined.

 

[JOEY’S ALL VOL !!!]

You’re not wrong. That’s actually more of indictment of our idiot citizens of submit however.

We let our government get too big for its britches a long way back and now we’re apparently too stupid and too gutless to try and reel it back in.

 

[hndog609]

Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing' swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony. You can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you.

Your avatar salutes you.

 

[KB5252]

It was because Israel wanted to do it. When has our stated goal been regime change?

When has Iran stated their goal is a nuke weapon? Bibi repeating it for decades doesn't count. They were twice at the negotiating table when we first bombed them. We didn't care

You are jumping to conclusions I never intended or made.

I stated the only good thing that could have come from this was regime change for the Iranian people

I didn't say their stated goal was a nuclear weapon. I said I absolutely believe it will be now.

You Seem extra grumpy today, do something that makes you happy.