Iran

[Orange_Crush]

It’s not about having a bomb. It’s about who has the bomb. If New Zealand had a bomb (don’t think they do) most wouldn’t care.

China would. That'd severely upset the Pacific geo-political theater. Hell, they're pissed about our partnership with Australia.

 

[McDad]

I don’t see how much Trump talks as comseqiential. Either he conducts a peaceful transition of power as basically every president has done before him, or he doesn’t.

So those are acceptable scenarios for you?

 

[lawgator1]

Did anyone mention that the White House canceled today's briefing with Congressional leaders regarding the attack?

They say its because of "positive developments" in the Middle East.... but one has to wonder whether its because at least some official US assessments are that the bombing only set the nuclear effort back by a few months.

This is the worry. That Trump et al overstated the effect of it and Iran is engaged in a delay game while they take the 60 percent material they stowed away the last week or so and ramp it up in the meantime.

I have come to the conclusion that I don't object to the bombing, and if it only slows them down on nukes that's at least something. But we have to close the loop on this, truly end it. Otherwise, all the bombing will have done is let them know they need to speed things up and they can in the meantime delay on the details... until they are ready to test.

 

[MontyPython]

Well my point has flown way over your head. They won't wait until it's a mile down.

The **** you talking about? You think Israel can prevent Iran from digging a big hole that goes a mile down?

Enriched Uranium amounts to a couple hundred pounds... Maybe. How they gonna find that? They failed to date, per US intelligence.

Iran still has its enriched Uranium.

 

[NEO]

China would. That'd severely upset the Pacific geo-political theater. Hell, they're pissed about our partnership with Australia.

China wouldn’t attack them though. Not military wise. Now would they use cyber warfare? Oh yeah. But I think everyone does that already and it’s just an understood.

 

[Sea Ray]

Seems you're the clown, Juicebox.

The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by four people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

If they restart it Israel will blow it up again. I'd suggest they not do that but the decision's up to them

 

[KB5252]

So Iran avoids further bombing and gets oil sanctions lifted in exchange for just the entrance of a nuclear facility being hit?

You really think that's all they absorbed in the last two weeks? Their air defenses are gone, their air force is gone. Somewhere between 50-70% of their Ballistic Missile stockpile is gone along with the majority of their mobile launchers. Their ballistic missile manufacturing facilities are gone.

I've seen some reports that they've lost 60-75% of their military capacity.

If the nuclear facilities remain largely intact it will just prove the effective range in depth of the bunker busters simply wasn't enough. Will have to go back to the drawing board for that one as our potential enemies now know our depth constraints.


It's just mind bottling (pun intended) crazy to say they got away with a slap on the wrist though.

 

[MontyPython]

If they restart it Israel will blow it up again. I'd suggest they not do that but the decision's up to them

They can't blow up a nuclear lab that's a mile deep.

 

[Orangeburst]

So earlier today it was argued they werent building a bomb, to now they are only months away from building a bomb.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

So... What... Israel is gonna send ground troops in to invade a deep mining project by Iran?

IMO if Iran is dead set on getting nukes, they're getting nukes.

The key phrase there is: dead set. Israel will pound them, assassinate them, etc for years before that happens. There will be lots of deaths.

You've suggested NK as a model. NK played Russia and China against each other to get nukes, I believe, but we aren't in a position to seriously bomb NK nor does SK have our blessing to bomb them.

China. It's actually in China's backyard. Bombing NK would be too close for China's comfort and possibly kick off an attack on Taiwan and a large world war.

Iran is a punk country no one likes and really protects. Russia waved bye bye when things got serious. China and Russia are just their oil buddies, nothing more. They don't need nukes and won't get nukes.

 

[volfanhill]

The **** you talking about? You think Israel can prevent Iran from digging a big hole that goes a mile down?

Enriched Uranium amounts to a couple hundred pounds... Maybe. How they gonna find that? They failed to date, per US intelligence.

Don't know why you are so hostile. But ok.

I think we have satellites. I think we will use them

I think Israel has proven that they have a top notch spy service.

I am betting on their intelligence service over irans. I think they will blow **** up the moment they are worried about those idiots digging a hole. Do you think they are just going sit back and allow themselves to be in this spot again? Hell no. Blow it up. Not like the worlds going to do anything back. Hell, if I were Israel I wouldn't give them their air space back

 

[Sea Ray]

They’ll figure out how to thwart it

They can't blow up a nuclear lab that's a mile deep.

 

[Orangeburst]

Crazy thought,,,threaten China or Russia with nukes for Ukraine or Taiwan orJapan, if Iran obtains a nuke weapon.

 

[Orange_Crush]

China wouldn’t attack them though. Not military wise. Now would they use cyber warfare? Oh yeah. But I think everyone does that already and it’s just an understood.

I believe China would most definitely attack them... some time after they began development, and well before they completed development.

It would probably escalate things between the US and China to dangerous levels first, though. (I'm actually thinking Australia here, and assuming NZ would be similar.)

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

Amazing how many don't understand how deterrence works.

 

[MontyPython]

They say its because of "positive developments" in the Middle East.... but one has to wonder whether its because at least some official US assessments are that the bombing only set the nuclear effort back by a few months.

This is the worry. That Trump et al overstated the effect of it and Iran is engaged in a delay game while they take the 60 percent material they stowed away the last week or so and ramp it up in the meantime.

I have come to the conclusion that I don't object to the bombing, and if it only slows them down on nukes that's at least something. But we have to close the loop on this, truly end it. Otherwise, all the bombing will have done is let them know they need to speed things up and they can in the meantime delay on the details... until they are ready to test.

I agree, but...

IMO, other than all out war, there's really no military solution in our playbook that prevents Iran... Or any country... From getting the bomb.

Just ask Kim Jong Un. Proud (fat ass)owner of nuclear weapons.

 

[lawgator1]

You really think that's all they absorbed in the last two weeks? Their air defenses are gone, their air force is gone. Somewhere between 50-70% of their Ballistic Missile stockpile is gone along with the majority of their mobile launchers. Their bariatric missile manufacturing facilities are gone.

I've seen some reports that they've lost 60-75% of their military capacity.

If the nuclear facilities remain largely intact it will just prove the effective range in depth of the bunker busters simply wasn't enough. Will have to go back to the drawing board for that one as our potential enemies now know our depth constraints.


It's just mind bottling (pun intended) crazy to say they got away with a slap on the wrist though.

No slap on the wrist, I agree. We just don't want it to be counterproductive to the goal of preventing a nuclear Iran and the concerns now being raised put that on the map to be considered.

And if in fact we and the Israelis have to do more to truly end the Iranian nuclear program, not just slow it down, what does that look like?

 

[volfanhill]

Bring them to their knees now. Bring us every ounce of enriched uranium you have or we, meaning Israel, don't stop. We keep the skies. Your allowed to be despotic ****s. Your international relevance is now zero. That's the deal.

 

[lawgator1]

I agree, but...

IMO, other than all out war, there's really no military solution in our playbook that prevents Iran... Or any country... From getting the bomb.

Just ask Kim Jong Un. Proud (fat ass)owner of nuclear weapons.

If we could go back in time and stop it, I assume we would have.

 

[Orangeburst]

Israel literally killed multiple scientists in their sleep, simultanteously, whacked terrorists with beepers, and Stuxneted Iran in past. Iran is Israel’s beech.

 

[lawgator1]

Bring them to their knees now. Bring us every ounce of enriched uranium you have or we, meaning Israel, don't stop. We keep the skies. Your allowed to be despotic ****s. Your international relevance is now zero. That's the deal.

Or else .... what, exactly? We are at full scale war? We attack and have to verify on the ground?

 

[MontyPython]

Don't know why you are so hostile. But ok.

I think we have satellites. I think we will use them

I think Israel has proven that they have a top notch spy service.

I am betting on their intelligence service over irans. I think they will blow **** up the moment they are worried about those idiots digging a hole. Do you think they are just going sit back and allow themselves to be in this spot again? Hell no. Blow it up. Not like the worlds going to do anything back. Hell, if I were Israel I wouldn't give them their air space back

Sorry. Not trying to be hostile. This **** amps me up.

I guess the question is ask is, if N Korea can build a nuke, what's preventing Iran from doing it?

 

[volfanhill]

Or else .... what, exactly? We are at full scale war? We attack and have to verify on the ground?

Keep we out of this. Israel. They keep bombbng the **** out of them. Iran can't stop a thing right now. Eventually regime change. Comply or your done. That's it. No trust but verify horeshit with these scumbags

 

[Jax_Vol]

Sorry. Not trying to be hostile. This **** amps me up.

I guess the question is ask is, if N Korea can build a nuke, what's preventing Iran from doing it?

S. Korea is soft. Israel is hard.

 

[Velo Vol]

I have come to the conclusion that I don't object to the bombing, and if it only slows them down on nukes that's at least something. But we have to close the loop on this, truly end it. Otherwise, all the bombing will have done is let them know they need to speed things up and they can in the meantime delay on the details... until they are ready to test.

How does this happen, given the current players?