Iran

[dalton_vol]

It seems that Iran is pretty limited, they only have a limited number of missles, they can't use planes and they're not going to send troops to Israel. I don't see Russia helping and I don't think Iran will get help from any countries.

 

[Orange_Crush]

It seems that Iran is pretty limited, they only have a limited number of missles, they can't use planes and they're not going to send troops to Israel. I don't see Russia helping and I don't think Iran will get help from any countries.

Reports that China is sending planes in with their transponders turned off. No idea what they are coming in or out with. (Note that Iran is/was a major foothold for China in the region.)

 

[Volsdeep4]

Here’s how I see it.
Iran wanted nukes for deterrence, their safety, and a seat at the powerful nations table. Do for your country as you wish. Every American would want the same if we didn’t have nukes.

Israel/USA don’t want Iran having nukes for multiple reasons; could mean death to Israel, it helps embolden China (brics), Iran would be a national power that’s not a friendly, Iran has been killing Americans in Afghanistan for many years, funding of many terrorist militias, uncertainty in the ME, religious extremism.

Once you want to be recognized as a powerful nation and threaten other actually powerful nations. If you get beat up, it is what it is. If someone bombed usa, it is what it is. We stick our noses everywhere it’s bound to piss people off.

 

[05_never_again]

Reports that China is sending planes in with their transponders turned off. No idea what they are coming in or out with. (Note that Iran is/was a major foothold for China in the region.)

Yeah, they are extremely sensitive to any trouble in Iran since it is where they get a lot of their oil from. If I'm Xi, I'm trying to get even closer with Vlad to make sure he keeps the oil coming his way.

It's one of the reasons a US strike on Iran isn't a simple question. Regime change there drives Russia and China even closer together, which we don't want.

 

[CagleMtnVol]

 

[Orange_Crush]

Yeah, they are extremely sensitive to any trouble in Iran since it is where they get a lot of their oil from. If I'm Xi, I'm trying to get even closer with Vlad to make sure he keeps the oil coming his way.

It's one of the reasons a US strike on Iran isn't a simple question. Regime change there drives Russia and China even closer together, which we don't want.

Actually, and I'm not sure how trustworthy these are, but there are reports that Putin has lost trust in the Chinese regime and is distancing themselves. Also, off topic.... Sounds like Kazakhstan just took themselves out as Russia's gunpowder supplier.

China-Russia trust erodes as Beijing’s hackers go rogue, launch cyberattacks to steal Ukraine war secrets

China hackers targeting Russia have secretly launched cyberattacks on Russian defense systems since the Ukraine war began, despite public claims of a strong alliance. Cybersecurity experts say Chinese groups linked to the state are digging into sensitive military data—ranging from drone warfare...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Frontline report: Kazakhstan just took the gunpowder out of Putin’s war in Ukraine and changed Pro-Russian stance

You’ve probably never heard of nitrocellulose—but this cotton-based explosive from Kazakhstan powers Russia’s bullets in Ukraine. byReporting from Ukraine Ammunition. Photo: MilitarnyiFrontline rep…

ukrainetoday.org

 

[Persian Vol]

It seems that Iran is pretty limited, they only have a limited number of missles, they can't use planes and they're not going to send troops to Israel. I don't see Russia helping and I don't think Iran will get help from any countries.

There are reports that Israel might not have enough Arrow interceptors to match the number of ballistic missiles Iran still has, which puts them in a tough spot. This is probably why there have been more impacts the last few days despite fewer numbers of missiles, as Israel is likely rationing interceptors. Sure, they can keep bombing, but they don’t really have the resources to finish the job on their own. If the U.S. doesn’t step in and this turns into a war of attrition, it’s hard to imagine a country with a tenth of Iran’s population holding up better in the long run. Israel knows that if this drags on, internal public sentiment could start turning against them (especially if they can’t conclusively eradicate the threat of nuclear weapons). That’s why I think the U.S. will ultimately step in, they’re not going to let Israel get stuck in a drawn-out conflict without a clear endgame. It just won’t happen. They completely sucked us into this.

 

[EasternVol]

They have a history of proxy terrorism. And per other nuclear armed countries; they aren't more likely since with nuclear armed countries, the cow is already out of the barn. I think the better question is, will they be more likely to either use a nuke, or lease it out, once they have the capabilities to follow up on their decades of threats/promises.

We have a history of proxy terrorism too, as do quite a few countries, and as far as we know no proxies have been gifted with nuclear weapons.
I don't think Iran would be likely to give bombs to their proxies because a) they'd lose control of when and how it's used, and b) they know it can be traced and the retribution would be huge. Combine the two and I very much doubt they'd be giving any away.
I keep reading here about those decades of threats but I don't recall the threats other than those made in the context of 'don't mess with us'.

 

[Orange_Crush]

There are reports that Israel might not have enough Arrow interceptors to match the number of ballistic missiles Iran still has, which puts them in a tough spot. This is probably why there have been more impacts the last few days despite fewer numbers of missiles, as Israel is likely rationing interceptors. Sure, they can keep bombing, but they don’t really have the resources to finish the job on their own. If the U.S. doesn’t step in and this turns into a war of attrition, it’s hard to imagine a country with a tenth of Iran’s population holding up better in the long run. Israel knows that if this drags on, internal public sentiment could start turning against them (especially if they can’t conclusively eradicate the threat of nuclear weapons). That’s why I think the U.S. will ultimately step in, they’re not going to let Israel get stuck in a drawn-out conflict without a clear endgame. It just won’t happen. They completely sucked us into this.

If Israel can't finish it, I fully expect that the US will. The worst outcome possible here is to NOT finish the complete destruction of the nuclear program, and there NOT be a regime change.

 

[Persian Vol]

If Israel can't finish it, I fully expect that the US will. The worst outcome possible here is to NOT finish the complete destruction of the nuclear program, and there NOT be a regime change.

I agree, and it’s likely Israel knew it would not be able to achieve that without America’s intervention.

 

[Orange_Crush]

We have a history of proxy terrorism too, as do quite a few countries, and as far as we know no proxies have been gifted with nuclear weapons.
I don't think Iran would be likely to give bombs to their proxies because a) they'd lose control of when and how it's used, and b) they know it can be traced and the retribution would be huge. Combine the two and I very much doubt they'd be giving any away.
I keep reading here about those decades of threats but I don't recall the threats other than those made in the context of 'don't mess with us'.

Sounds like we have different recollections. I remember decades of "Death to America" chants. promises to feast on Israel as a snack and America as the entree.

It seems that you are willing to take the risk of Iran having nuclear weapon capabilities. We'll just chalk that up to another subject on which we disagree.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I agree, and it’s likely Israel knew it would not be able to achieve that without America’s intervention.

Agreed.

FTR, I recall seeing reports a this went down that Israel attacked with the US's knowledge but not approval. Not sure if that was factual, tho.

 

[Orange_Crush]

The video, from 2018, shows Iranian lawmakers demonstrating against President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the 2015 international nuclear deal. The MPs had staged a protest, chanting ‘Death to America’. At the time, Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, said: “If Europe and important countries like Russia and China fill this international vacuum (in the deal), perhaps there will be a way to continue. Otherwise, the Islamic Republic of Iran will bring them (US) to their senses with its nuclear actions.”


"They have to know that under such circumstances, Iran has no commitment to remain in the nuclear position it was in before."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/iran-parliament-burning-american-flag-chanting-death-to-america-amid-israel-conflict-truth-behind-video-101750276799975.html

 

[EasternVol]

Sounds like we have different recollections. I remember decades of "Death to America" chants. promises to feast on Israel as a snack and America as the entree.

It seems that you are willing to take the risk of Iran having nuclear weapon capabilities. We'll just chalk that up to another subject on which we disagree.

Isn't 'death to xxx' pretty much like 'go to hell xxx'? I don't think any of us have fully intended to lay waste to Alabama in October. Well, not many anyway.

 

[volfanhill]

There are reports that Israel might not have enough Arrow interceptors to match the number of ballistic missiles Iran still has, which puts them in a tough spot. This is probably why there have been more impacts the last few days despite fewer numbers of missiles, as Israel is likely rationing interceptors. Sure, they can keep bombing, but they don’t really have the resources to finish the job on their own. If the U.S. doesn’t step in and this turns into a war of attrition, it’s hard to imagine a country with a tenth of Iran’s population holding up better in the long run. Israel knows that if this drags on, internal public sentiment could start turning against them (especially if they can’t conclusively eradicate the threat of nuclear weapons). That’s why I think the U.S. will ultimately step in, they’re not going to let Israel get stuck in a drawn-out conflict without a clear endgame. It just won’t happen. They completely sucked us into this.

It does look that way. I'd say not having enough interceptors is a massive intelligence failure

 

[Orange_Crush]

Isn't 'death to xxx' pretty much like 'go to hell xxx'? I don't think any of us have fully intended to lay waste to Alabama in October. Well, not many anyway.

We also haven't threatened to nuke Alabama if we can ever get a nuclear bomb, while claiming to be really close to having a nuclear bomb.

If you are the littlest/weakest person in the altercation, you probably need to temper the "I'm going to kill you and everyone you've ever loved" talk. Sounds like it came back and bit them in the *** pretty hard.

 

[Orange_Crush]

It does look that way. I'd say not having enough interceptors is a massive intelligence failure

Possible that China is supplying Iran more missiles. That likely would not have been in Israeli intel, but had to be considered a possibility.

 

[Orangeburst]

Iran is using cluster munitions, so that is probably why there are more impacts.

 

[05_never_again]

Actually, and I'm not sure how trustworthy these are, but there are reports that Putin has lost trust in the Chinese regime and is distancing themselves. Also, off topic.... Sounds like Kazakhstan just took themselves out as Russia's gunpowder supplier.

China-Russia trust erodes as Beijing’s hackers go rogue, launch cyberattacks to steal Ukraine war secrets

China hackers targeting Russia have secretly launched cyberattacks on Russian defense systems since the Ukraine war began, despite public claims of a strong alliance. Cybersecurity experts say Chinese groups linked to the state are digging into sensitive military data—ranging from drone warfare...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Frontline report: Kazakhstan just took the gunpowder out of Putin’s war in Ukraine and changed Pro-Russian stance

You’ve probably never heard of nitrocellulose—but this cotton-based explosive from Kazakhstan powers Russia’s bullets in Ukraine. byReporting from Ukraine Ammunition. Photo: MilitarnyiFrontline rep…

ukrainetoday.org

They don't trust each other, at all, but they have a relationship out of necessity thing going on. Iran falling apart would push them even closer together.

 

[CagleMtnVol]

 

[Orange_Crush]

What? Man-made?

 

[Orangeburst]

lets not even kid ourselves..Iran and proxies have been at war with Israel and west for 40 years.

kinda amazing it hasnt come to a head a long time ago.

 

[EasternVol]

We also haven't threatened to nuke Alabama if we can ever get a nuclear bomb, while claiming to be really close to having a nuclear bomb.

If you are the littlest/weakest person in the altercation, you probably need to temper the "I'm going to kill you and everyone you've ever loved" talk. Sounds like it came back and bit them in the *** pretty hard.

I hadn't seen that. When did Iran threaten Israel with nuclear attack?

 

[Orange_Crush]

I hadn't seen that. When did Iran threaten Israel with nuclear attack?

One would assume it was included in the "Death to..." chants, etc... I mean, I get it. You seem to want to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even after Trump told them under no uncertain terms that they needed to pipe down and get a no-nuke deal done or it would go very, very badly for them, they decided to double down and play with fire.

Incredibly bad decision making on their part.

 

[EasternVol]

One would assume it was included in the "Death to..." chants, etc... I mean, I get it. You seem to want to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even after Trump told them under no uncertain terms that they needed to pipe down and get a no-nuke deal done or it would go very, very badly for them, they decided to double down and play with fire.

Incredibly bad decision making on their part.

You said they'd threatened nuclear attack. That's a specific threat and not implicit in their 'death to you' rhetoric. Considering your answer I assume they didn't make that specific threat.
I don't think anyone here is saying the Iranian leadership are model diplomats.