That was a good read.
Here is the whole post for people that don’t have X.
Some thoughts:
1. Iran’s dilemma: Iran does not want to absorb the first strike like it always does. At the same time, it does not want to be seen as the “aggressor.” Tehran wants the option to hit and still claim it was responding.
2. USS Gerald R. Ford is not yet in the CENTCOM theater. Many of its air wing assets remain in the U.S., with others still en route to the Middle East.
3. If Iran intends to launch a preemptive or surprise strike, logic suggests it would prefer to act before Ford links up with the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and fully expands U.S. combat power in theater.
4.If Iran strikes first, even under a preemptive justification, it hands the U.S. and Israel the cleanest political and military case for a large scale coordinated response. That could turn into a self inflicted strategic disaster for Tehran.
5. The 2 week timeline
Iran says it needs roughly 2 weeks to formulate a response to the latest U.S. proposals. That buys time. It may also be operational cover.
6. Israel does not trust Iran’s timeline or messaging. If Israeli intelligence sees credible signs of imminent missile or drone launch preparations, Israel will strike first independently.
7.The bottom line, the next few days to 2 weeks could shift rapidly and unexpectedly and we may see many surprises
