Inviting analysis: Why do so many #1 seeds exit early from CWS?

[BruisedOrange]

Everyone's read it: since the NCAA started the current seeding system, only one #1 seed has won the CWS. I've heard (but couldn't confirm) that many more top seeds never got past the regionals.

I like the way baseball people analyze things. But how susceptible to intangibles are all those wonderful stats?

Would love to hear the VFL brain trust weigh in on why the seemingly best baseball team each season can't catch a bus all the way to Omaha.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Because half this game is 90% mental

 

[vol66]

Everyone's read it: since the NCAA started the current seeding system, only one #1 seed has won the CWS. I've heard (but couldn't confirm) that many more top seeds never got past the regionals.

I like the way baseball people analyze things. But how susceptible to intangibles are all those wonderful stats?

Would love to hear the VFL brain trust weigh in on why the seemingly best baseball team each season can't catch a bus all the way to Omaha.

It’s added pressure and you end up getting every team’s best game. I thought if any team could handle it, these guys had the swag to do it. ND posed some problems but I think we just had a bad day on the final day. We didn’t field well, once we got past the 6th, we didn’t pitch well and timely hits didn’t happen. We had opportunities to close the door, we didn’t finish em.

 

[Titan05]

If you’re the #1 seed, you’ve likely been at or near the top for 3 months, taking every team’s best shot. It takes a very special team to do that for a fourth month against substantially better competition.

 

[Volprofch05]

Agree with the responses above and will add that the law of averages could catch up with teams who have had things go their way (in addition to great talent) to amass the best records.

 

[Old Geezer]

It all comes down to sample sizing. This is why MLB and NHL do best of seven. 'Best of three' games is too small a sample for the best teams to average out on top. The best teams get eliminated by any slight deviation from their average, which a larger sample (more games) would be more likely to average out.

 

[bigeasy]

I would be interested to see if #1 seed typically has a tougher regional and super. Or was it just our "luck".

-We had 3 in the top 25 RPI and 5 in top 60 (2 in top 15)

-Texas A&M for example had 1 in Top 25 and 3 in top 60

-Florida had 2 in top 25, 4 top 60

-Ole Miss 2 Top 25 (15 lowest), 5 top 60

 

[Catfishvfl]

Also to add the 1st seed winner plays the 16th seed regional winner while the 16th sees is the lowest seed it also has the better teams in it. So if the 16th seed doesn't win it's regional the 1st seed gets arguably the best team that didn't earn a seed. Just my 2 cents lol!

 

[Jax_Vol]

Also to add the 1st seed winner plays the 16th seed regional winner while the 16th sees is the lowest seed it also has the better teams in it. So if the 16th seed doesn't win it's regional the 1st seed gets arguably the best team that didn't earn a seed. Just my 2 cents lol!

Yes. Since they don't reseed it, the # 1 does play the winner of 16 /17. Instead of a winner of 16 / 32 (potentially).

This year, Georgia Southern was the 16; Notre Dame 17; and Georgia Tech was 32.

 

[Volfan1000]

Because half this game is 90% mental

I would say that the pressure on number one seeds gets more insurtamountable as they advance.

 

[Volprofch05]

Pressure is also particularly bad in baseball. In basketball you're running full speed non-stop and there's no time to think. In baseball you're standing around in the field and have plenty of time to ponder the gravity of the situation while you wait for a ball to be hit your way occasionally.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Everyone's read it: since the NCAA started the current seeding system, only one #1 seed has won the CWS. I've heard (but couldn't confirm) that many more top seeds never got past the regionals.

I like the way baseball people analyze things. But how susceptible to intangibles are all those wonderful stats?

Would love to hear the VFL brain trust weigh in on why the seemingly best baseball team each season can't catch a bus all the way to Omaha.

According to Chris Burke, it's because geographical proximity is part of the seeding considerations for the regionals, and #1 seeds can find themselves in clashes with really good teams in their regionals and super regionals vs the teams they would face if everything were seeded withou geographical proximity considerations. I don't know if that's true or not, but it makes intuitive sense to me.

 

[Volprofch05]

According to Chris Burke, it's because geographical proximity is part of the seeding considerations for the regionals, and #1 seeds can find themselves in clashes with really good teams in their regionals and super regionals vs the teams they would face if everything were seeded withou geographical proximity considerations. I don't know if that's true or not, but it makes intuitive sense to me.

Yeah, I agree that is part of it, and we play in the south, where there are a lot of great teams to contend with.

 

[cobbwebb0710]

According to Chris Burke, it's because geographical proximity is part of the seeding considerations for the regionals, and #1 seeds can find themselves in clashes with really good teams in their regionals and super regionals vs the teams they would face if everything were seeded withou geographical proximity considerations. I don't know if that's true or not, but it makes intuitive sense to me.

I brought up the fact that maybe regionals shouldn’t be so “regional” and maybe we should reseed after regionals, heading into supers and someone accused me of making convenient excuses for our Vols losing.
My reply...well, YEAH!

GBO!!

 

[gobravesvols16]

It all comes down to who plays their best at the right time. Did UT peak too soon? Probably. Look at the Braves last year. They were the hot team at the end. As the #1 seed you hope you avoid that hot team

 

[VolBricks]

I am a baseball novice, I like the game but I don't "Study" it like some do. Here is what I saw as a more than casual observer, TN lost focus in the super regional, they made uncharacteristic throwing errors from 3rd/SS to 1st base, pitching was not as crisp as it had been and give ND credit they took advantage of every error. ND played small ball by continuing to steal bases, bunts, and then got timely hitting in the form of home runs. Tony V is going to be a great coach one day but he got outcoached in this series because his team never changed tactics, UT relied on the HR to score, rarely stole bases and never bunted a man over.
I saw the statistics on how many #1 seeds do not make it out of the Regional/Super Regionals I cannot remember what they were but the numbers seemed high to me.

 

[VolPack22]

Because half this game is 90% mental

90% of half this game = 45%

So 45% of this game is mental

 

[cobbwebb0710]

90% of half this game = 45%

So 45% of this game is mental

GBO!!

 

[youcancallmeAl]

I brought up the fact that maybe regionals shouldn’t be so “regional” and maybe we should reseed after regionals, heading into supers and someone accused me of making convenient excuses for our Vols losing.
My reply...well, YEAH!

GBO!!

Yeah, theoretically, the #1 seed should play the worst of the other 15 regional winners. Some of those were teams we've already beaten, such as Ole Miss and Auburn, and would have almost certainly beaten again. But that isn't it entirely. I think our pitching was worn down - especially the freshmen - and we were a tight and not relaxed team. I also think Tony was outmaneuvered in the Super w/respect to pitching moves.

Those are my convenient excuses!!

 

[youcancallmeAl]

I am a baseball novice, I like the game but I don't "Study" it like some do. Here is what I saw as a more than casual observer, TN lost focus in the super regional, they made uncharacteristic throwing errors from 3rd/SS to 1st base, pitching was not as crisp as it had been and give ND credit they took advantage of every error. ND played small ball by continuing to steal bases, bunts, and then got timely hitting in the form of home runs. Tony V is going to be a great coach one day but he got outcoached in this series because his team never changed tactics, UT relied on the HR to score, rarely stole bases and never bunted a man over.
I saw the statistics on how many #1 seeds do not make it out of the Regional/Super Regionals I cannot remember what they were but the numbers seemed high to me.

Alot of what you say is true. But a team can't just change it's offense on the fly like that. They played the entire season relying on the long ball and occasionally playing small ball. But ND took a lot of the small ball awasy from us with an excellent defense, especially at catcher. We went with what we had done all year and hope it would work. It did on Friday and Saturday, but they outpitched us on Friday and Sunday.

 

[VolPack22]

I am a baseball novice, I like the game but I don't "Study" it like some do. Here is what I saw as a more than casual observer, TN lost focus in the super regional, they made uncharacteristic throwing errors from 3rd/SS to 1st base, pitching was not as crisp as it had been and give ND credit they took advantage of every error. ND played small ball by continuing to steal bases, bunts, and then got timely hitting in the form of home runs. Tony V is going to be a great coach one day but he got outcoached in this series because his team never changed tactics, UT relied on the HR to score, rarely stole bases and never bunted a man over.
I saw the statistics on how many #1 seeds do not make it out of the Regional/Super Regionals I cannot remember what they were but the numbers seemed high to me.

We are the third consecutive #1 overall seed to be eliminated in the super regionals. That should tell you all you need to know about this tournament. The #1 does not get rewarded like it should. I didn’t really have any issues with the seedings like the basketball tournament seems to have an issue with, but it’s the geographic placements that are the biggest concern for me. Any potential matchup should give the #1 seed the easiest path to the CWS. They should do one of two things:

Option 1:
The #1 seed should get these seeds:
#32, #48, #64

The #16 seed should get:
#31, #47, #63


Option 2:
The #1 seed should get the same three seeds above and then the #2 seed gets the next three seeds listed above and just go down the line until the #16 seed gets #17, #33, and #49. Then they should re-seed for placements in the super regionals based on worst seed going to best seed.

 

[VolPack22]

It all comes down to who plays their best at the right time. Did UT peak too soon? Probably. Look at the Braves last year. They were the hot team at the end. As the #1 seed you hope you avoid that hot team

Whenever you make it all the way through regionals with 7 losses, it honestly felt like they were peaking the entire season.

 

[Andy1]

Speaking from a sample size of 1 (Arkansas last year), I think you feel that you have to contest every game during the season —- no matter how meaningless it is.

Arkansas, for example, traditionally does not spend a lot of energy contesting SEC tournament games. Even in the years when they were lucky enough to finish second, the results were as much luck as effort. This year, they had plenty of time to regroup following the swoon at the end of the season. Same thing happened in 2018 when they lost 3 of the last 5 regular season series and almost won the CWS.


While you can argue whether it is a casual factor in their post-season success, they typically have outperformed their regular season record.

Last year, they seemed to pull out all stops to win the tournament though. The pressure of a double SEC championship lead them to celebrate like they had won the CWS. They were emotionally and physically drained by the time regionals started.

That, plus Peyton Pallete getting hurt in May, derailed them. Not sure they win everything but they probably make the CWS with him pitching.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Whenever you make it all the way through regionals with 7 losses, it honestly felt like they were peaking the entire season.

Our starting pitching had definitely peaked earlier than the regionals and supers.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Speaking from a sample size of 1 (Arkansas last year), I think you feel that you have to contest every game during the season —- no matter how meaningless it is.

Arkansas, for example, traditionally does not spend a lot of energy contesting SEC tournament games. Even in the years when they were lucky enough to finish second, the results were as much luck as effort. This year, they had plenty of time to regroup following the swoon at the end of the season. Same thing happened in 2018 when they lost 3 of the last 5 regular season series and almost won the CWS.


While you can argue whether it is a casual factor in their post-season success, they typically have outperformed their regular season record.

Last year, they seemed to pull out all stops to win the tournament though. The pressure of a double SEC championship lead them to celebrate like they had won the CWS. They were emotionally and physically drained by the time regionals started.

That, plus Peyton Pallete getting hurt in May, derailed them. Not sure they win everything but they probably make the CWS with him pitching.

That makes a lot of sense to me - the drain on emotions winning both the regular season and tournament SEC championships is likely to be very high. There's evidence that happened to us: We uncharacteristically fell behind by four runs a couple of times in the regionals, and Russell calling in sick with anxiety in the regionals (wonder how many others were anxious, too. Maybe Russell was the canary in the coalmine). And our pitching got hit hard in both the regionals and super. I think you're on to something about the price to be paid for winning both championships before the national tournament. Look how MSt won it all after not caring in the SEC tourney.