Interesting stat on playing true freshmen

[bigdaddy]

Why should he have to quell expectations in his 3rd year?

FWIW, your expectations seem to be plenty quelled.

Yes sir they are. I didn't say he has to do it, just that he is. I'm not that far off from some here. I'm ok with seven wins in the regular season.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

I have too, but he based it off one thing, and that is that "we played 21 true freshmen last year and we'll play 22 true freshmen on Saturday". Perhaps that's technically true, but I don't think nearly as many freshmen will be relied on as heavily as our freshmen were last year. I posted this is another thread.....



Last year we relied primarily on freshmen Hurd at RB...this year we'll rely on Hurd, who's a year older and 3rd year collegiate player Kamara at RB....not younger there.

On the OL last year, we relied a lot on freshmen Robertson and Thomas....this year we'll rely on both of those guys who are a year older, along with RSSr Kerbyson, Junior Dylan Weisman and 3rd year collegiate player Kendrick....no freshmen as starters at this point. I didn't include RSSr Mac Crowder who willcertainly play as well.....not younger there.

At TightEnd last year, we counted on 2 true freshman and a RSJr....this year we'll count on Wolf, who's a year older and Ellis, who's a year older.....no freshmen....not younger there.

At WR true freshman Jennings has showed out and will start in the slot since Pig is suspended. PWill will also see some time, will get limited snaps. However, last year, true freshman Malone got a ton of playing time, played in all 13 games, started in 6....he returns as a year older player, as do seniors Pig, Johnson and Pearson, as do 3rd year collegiate players North and Josh Smith.....definitely not younger there.

Even at QB....last year we started Senior Worley, who began the season with 10 career starts. This year we start Junior QB Dobbs, who comes into 2015 having made 9 (essentially 10) career starts. Pretty much a wash there as well. If you want to say we're younger at QB this year I guess you can.

So that's just the offense. With the exception of middle linebacker and backup DT, the story is much the same on the defensive side of the ball. A bunch of upperclassmen in Maggitt, JRM, Williams, OBrien, Foreman ,Sutton and Randolph alongside guys who were freshmen last year (Barnett, Berry, Moseley, Kelly) and are a year older this year. Not younger on defense.

Excellent post. This should quell some of this "we're younger than last year" nonsense. True that we're still young, but we've got talent and experience at just about every position. The only place I can think of that we're lacking experience is MLB.

 

[bigdaddy]

Excellent post. This should quell some of this "we're younger than last year" nonsense. True that we're still young, but we've got talent and experience at just about every position. The only place I can think of that we're lacking experience is MLB.

Add most the OL to that as well. Guys are all over the place in new positions and we lost our one lineman with the most plays on the line

 

[HoptownVol]

"Freshmen will get you beat." Phil Fulmer

 

[BeecherVol]

Yes sir they are. I didn't say he has to do it, just that he is. I'm not that far off from some here. I'm ok with seven wins in the regular season.

On the bright side, the disappointment level will be non existent.

9-3 is the mark for me.

 

[KBVol]

"Freshmen will get you beat." Phil Fulmer

Yep, ol' Phil is the only collegiate coach who ever said that. Matter of fact, probably the only collegiate HALL OF FAME football coach who ever said it. What an idiot.


(All kinds of blue font)

 

[bigdaddy]

On the bright side, the disappointment level will be non existent.

9-3 is the mark for me.

I wouldn't mind that one bit

 

[BeecherVol]

I wouldn't mind that one bit

I think the schedule sets up better this year.
We will still be weak on the OL, but better everywhere else.

 

[Dr Dread]

Thanks; means a lot coming from you!

Before he stated the facts, he said he was a numbers guy. I can relate. I'm an engineer and a numbers gal. I think he was just stating what he can that is definitive. Because the rest is conjecture. I feel he doesn't want to give anything away to opponents. And I also feel like he doesn't want to speculate or mislead fans as to where the team is at this moment or how he believes the season will go. The best way to do that is to state the "facts."

Like BigDaddy said above, I've never heard Jones use youth as an excuse after losing. After the Florida game last year, he said it was the lowest moment of his career. I felt like he took responsibility. I don't remember any excuses.

Being a "numbers guy" has nothing to do with it. Numbers games only serve to draw attention to the areas which you choose to emphasize. CBJ chooses to emphasize youth.

 

[LWSVOL]

Crazy stat. In the last five years Missouri only played 15 true freshmen, while Tennessee played 20 last year alone.

No other SEC team has played as many freshman in any season as far back as 2005 as Tennessee played last year or will play this year.

 

[sjt18]

And when Mizzou has had to play the best teams from the West they've been destroyed the past 2 years. Their strategy has allowed them to win a bad East for 2 years. At some point they will have to start recruiting the caliber of guys that are good enough to start on day 1. I mean would it have made sense if Barnett, Garrett, Fournette, or Chubb went to Mizzou and red shirted?

IIRC, they have two Fr this year that are likely to play on the DL. Beckner IMO will be a starter by the time UT plays them.

 

[p.manning16]

i think most people get tired of butch saying we are young after game 9 or 10. JMO

 

[sjt18]

Yes sir they are. I didn't say he has to do it, just that he is. I'm not that far off from some here. I'm ok with seven wins in the regular season.

There is a pretty big difference between 7 and 8 wins for this season. Seven says UT beat those they should be heavy favorites over. It likely says they lost to UGA, OU, and Bama who appear to have a talent advantage. But it also says that they went 2 of 4 vs USCe, MU, UF, and Arky. UF has talent but a very specific roster issue on the OL that will probably keep them from being a good team. Neither of the other three have as much talent as UT.

Sorry but that would be a reflection on coaching... and not a good one.

 

[sjt18]

Oh, Mizzou will be more dependent than they've been since year one on guys who are young and not fully developed in their program. USCe will play young guys and have holes all over their roster. Arky lost production and talent on D then their best RB.

UT has a talent advantage.

 

[Dr Dread]

It appears that if we reach 25 true freshmen playing, it's more of a coaching preference, and less of a necessity.

There are about 6 in the class that would play no matter what school they went to. Another 9 to 12 that will be needed to provide additional depth. Anything after that is not based on necessity.

 

[chuck0303]

Yep, especially when Butch said yesterday that 20 True FR will likely see the field on Saturday.

Playing as many freshman as he can in this first game is a plus I think for a lot of reasons, particularly once the game is in hand. (1) It builds confidence & motivation (2) Great for recruiting because it says if you're good enough you can get playing time right away (3) encourages young players to get even better even though they know right now they may not be starters. Butch never said he was playing these freshmen because he had to; no other choice. No one wants to practice if they think they have no chance to get on the field; why would they? Builds experience & depth for the future. If he HAD to play freshmen then that is a problem but you have to use the personnel & talent you have, regardless. As long as they can perform I doubt Butch cares a lot what grade they're in.:good!:

 

[92volalum]

Wow.. so Butch has convinced vn that we are young???

It's yr 3 there are no excuses for not winning n beating fla,ga, bama and mizz or ou. Will he beat all of them no but he needs 50% or better.

1 day folks

 

[bigdaddy]

Wow.. so Butch has convinced vn that we are young???

It's yr 3 there are no excuses for not winning n beating fla,ga, bama and mizz or ou. Will he beat all of them no but he needs 50% or better.

1 day folks

It's been repeated over and over here. According to numbers we are young. It's not that hard to count and see for yourself. And as for your 50%, I think our online is a disaster. Name me one guy on our roster that would start for UGA, OU, Bama, AU, LSU, ARK....all top tear teams

 

[bigdaddy]

There is a pretty big difference between 7 and 8 wins for this season. Seven says UT beat those they should be heavy favorites over. It likely says they lost to UGA, OU, and Bama who appear to have a talent advantage. But it also says that they went 2 of 4 vs USCe, MU, UF, and Arky. UF has talent but a very specific roster issue on the OL that will probably keep them from being a good team. Neither of the other three have as much talent as UT.

Sorry but that would be a reflection on coaching... and not a good one.

I guess I have more patience in a rebuilding process. I don't think we are quite there yet in terms of quality depth and way behind in OL. I wouldn't see it as much as a coaching issue at this point. I would need to see how things play out. We are going to lose more players to injury this season so I can't say 8 or more wins at this point

 

[Vol464]

But how long do you get to say that? How long before it has to be asked, "Hey, why is your team still young and thin?" UT signed 53 guys in Jones' first two classes... guys who would be Jrs or Sophs now. A total of 19 are gone.

You can blame the player or give all sorts of reasons or excuses for why they're gone. But the bottom line is that those 53 scholarships only yielded a 34 player addition to the roster. That's an average of 17 players per year... you cannot maintain an 85 man roster with scholarship players at that success rate.... and you will ALWAYS be young and thin.

I will probably get attacked again for point this out. But this is a problem that Jones has to fix to build the program. To be fair, the attrition rate in the '14 class is better than the '13 class. But we have no way of knowing if more won't leave from that class.

The '13 class was cobbled together. Next year, a good portion of the starters will be juniors and sophomores. The depth should look better then. The roster turnover Jones has done is nothing short of incredible considering where it was and where UT football was when he was hired. jmo

 

[walkenvol]

CBJ had a mess to clean up and build it up from scratch. He has to be ultra aggressive where as Saban doesn't. If someone doesn't pan out, he can ride it out for 4 years on the pine or Special teams. CBJ doesn't have the luxury of wasted scholarships

I take it that you believe the players who have left the program have done so because CBJ culled them out?

You are probably correct concerning several players, but I haven't sensed that with Helm, Henderson, Warton and others?

 

[daj2576]

But how long do you get to say that? How long before it has to be asked, "Hey, why is your team still young and thin?" UT signed 53 guys in Jones' first two classes... guys who would be Jrs or Sophs now. A total of 19 are gone.

You can blame the player or give all sorts of reasons or excuses for why they're gone. But the bottom line is that those 53 scholarships only yielded a 34 player addition to the roster. That's an average of 17 players per year... you cannot maintain an 85 man roster with scholarship players at that success rate.... and you will ALWAYS be young and thin.

I will probably get attacked again for point this out. But this is a problem that Jones has to fix to build the program. To be fair, the attrition rate in the '14 class is better than the '13 class. But we have no way of knowing if more won't leave from that class.

For you to assess that attrition is a problem, you are suggesting that this rate is far enough outside of the normal to be concerning. Perhaps it is. What is the national average attrition rate, and how many standard deviations above or below that rate is UT within?

 

[daj2576]

There is a pretty big difference between 7 and 8 wins for this season. Seven says UT beat those they should be heavy favorites over. It likely says they lost to UGA, OU, and Bama who appear to have a talent advantage. But it also says that they went 2 of 4 vs USCe, MU, UF, and Arky. UF has talent but a very specific roster issue on the OL that will probably keep them from being a good team. Neither of the other three have as much talent as UT.

Sorry but that would be a reflection on coaching... and not a good one.

Ive been away for the better part of the summer and I return in time to see that nothing has changed. You've been long looking for evidence of this conclusion that you long ago made about Jones. Eventually you will set a milestone that he won't hit, and you'll have it. I admire your persistence.

 

[BigOrangeTailgate]

But how long do you get to say that? How long before it has to be asked, "Hey, why is your team still young and thin?" UT signed 53 guys in Jones' first two classes... guys who would be Jrs or Sophs now. A total of 19 are gone.

You can blame the player or give all sorts of reasons or excuses for why they're gone. But the bottom line is that those 53 scholarships only yielded a 34 player addition to the roster. That's an average of 17 players per year... you cannot maintain an 85 man roster with scholarship players at that success rate.... and you will ALWAYS be young and thin.

I will probably get attacked again for point this out. But this is a problem that Jones has to fix to build the program. To be fair, the attrition rate in the '14 class is better than the '13 class. But we have no way of knowing if more won't leave from that class.

I think the attrition rate will improve naturally. The first two years Butch was trying to turn over the roster as quickly as possible. I think he'll be more selective from this point on. Plus as he builds depth the 85 man roster will be full. If I take your 17 number and multiply it by 5 I get 85. Once the depth is there and we can red-shirt the majority of Freshman or anyone who needs it we'll hit our limit. Throw in a JUCO or two and a transfer and we're there. But I don't believe for a second that we'll continue to average keeping 17 per class in the program. JMO.

 

[Dr Dread]

Playing as many freshman as he can in this first game is a plus I think for a lot of reasons, particularly once the game is in hand. (1) It builds confidence & motivation (2) Great for recruiting because it says if you're good enough you can get playing time right away (3) encourages young players to get even better even though they know right now they may not be starters. Butch never said he was playing these freshmen because he had to; no other choice. No one wants to practice if they think they have no chance to get on the field; why would they? Builds experience & depth for the future. If he HAD to play freshmen then that is a problem but you have to use the personnel & talent you have, regardless. As long as they can perform I doubt Butch cares a lot what grade they're in.:good!:

OK. But then he uses that inflated number to show young we are, as though we're playing them out of necessity.