Interesting stat for STAR GAZERS

#1
tennesseeduke

tennesseeduke

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#1
The 2015 1st round draft is in the books so here is an interesting stat of how the Star ratings for those 32 players looked like coming out of HS. Depending on which rankings you look back at, 2, 3, & 4 are plus or minus 1 so this is the average of all rankings.

5 Stars = 7
4 Stars = 7
3 Stars = 15
2 Stars = 3

Just goes to show that stars mean something but the bulk of the best players come from 3 and 4 star guys.

:hi:

Tennesseeduke
 
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#7
#7
Assuming that you have 25-30 five stars in a year, all you've proven is that 25% of them get drafted in the first round... Which would seem like it proves that five stars are REALLY good football players.
 
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#8
#8
The chances of making the NFL if you are a 5 star is north of 60%. While the chances of making the NFL if you are a 3 star is less than 20%. There are simply way more 3 stars each recruiting cycle than 5 stars which is why you get things like this. I'd much rather have a 5 star prospect than a 3 star because ON AVERAGE the 5 star has a way higher chance of being a stud than the 3 star.
 
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#9
#9
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
The chances of making the NFL if you are a 5 star is north of 60%. While the chances of making the NFL if you are a 3 star is less than 20%. There are simply way more 3 stars each recruiting cycle than 5 stars which is why you get things like this. I'd much rather have a 5 star prospect than a 3 star because ON AVERAGE the 5 star has a way higher chance of being a stud than the 3 star.
Click to expand...

Exactly this
 
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#12
#12
as long as CBJ is recruiting to the teams needs is the big thing,of course player evaluation is what is key,that is what the good coaches do
 
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#13
#13
tennesseeduke said:
The 2015 1st round draft is in the books so here is an interesting stat of how the Star ratings for those 32 players looked like coming out of HS. Depending on which rankings you look back at, 2, 3, & 4 are plus or minus 1 so this is the average of all rankings.

5 Stars = 7
4 Stars = 7
3 Stars = 15
2 Stars = 3

Just goes to show that stars mean something but the bulk of the best players come from 3 and 4 star guys.

:hi:

Tennesseeduke
Click to expand...

The bulk of the players come from 3 star athletes because there are around 40 times more 3 stars than 5 stars. Based on this draft, a 5 star athlete is about 20 times more likely to be a first rounder than a 3 star athlete. Since we don't have unlimited roster spots, fill them with a bunch of Hurds and McKenzies when possible.
 
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#14
#14
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
The chances of making the NFL if you are a 5 star is north of 60%. While the chances of making the NFL if you are a 3 star is less than 20%. There are simply way more 3 stars each recruiting cycle than 5 stars which is why you get things like this. I'd much rather have a 5 star prospect than a 3 star because ON AVERAGE the 5 star has a way higher chance of being a stud than the 3 star.
Click to expand...

This X 1000.^^^^

I have never understood the denial of some people when it comes to recruiting. It has been proven that championship teams have about 2 classes out of 4 ranked in the top 10. Success generally follows good recruiting. There are exceptions of course....teams that do less with more like Georgia, Texas, ect. But the most recent champions like Ohio State, Alabama, Auburn, Fla State have all done well on the recruiting trail. I don't care how good of a coach Pinkel is a Mizzou, he is never winning a national title there with classes ranked below number 20. The better teams will simply always out talent him.
 
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#17
#17
You know what stars are for? They're for fans because fans don't have the time to evaluate these kids. I'd be interested to see how many of those 3* players that were drafted in the 1st round came from big schools and small schools.

If you went to a big school that means the services were wrong but the coaches saw enough to offer you a scholarship. One of my favorite examples is E. Moseley. Once he came to UT and started performing all the services used the "the reason he was a 3* is because of his weight" excuse.

That's the issue with those sites. Are they rating them on potential? Performance at camps? Performance in games? Etc. I'll tell you it's mostly on performances at camps where they think they have the best of the best, and they do have a lot of good kids.

But we need a system that rates players on a scale of 1-100 in major categories.

Game Performance
Size for position
Speed for position
Camp Performance
etc

Then list which categories carries how much weight. Math it up and then give a rating. The current way of doing things is just a big cluster funk made for fans to be able to stick their chest out. It's a pointless poll like preseason rankings.
 
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#19
#19
dreVol said:
Well, yeah. Do the math. There are significantly more 3 stars than 5 stars.[/QUOTE

Exactly but why are there so many negative comments when CBJ or any program for that matter gets a 3*? 3 and 4 star players are what make a program and have to be coached up. Seeing something in a kid that with the right coaching can be a superstar.

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
Click to expand...
 
#20
#20
tennesseeduke said:
The 2015 1st round draft is in the books so here is an interesting stat of how the Star ratings for those 32 players looked like coming out of HS. Depending on which rankings you look back at, 2, 3, & 4 are plus or minus 1 so this is the average of all rankings.

5 Stars = 7
4 Stars = 7
3 Stars = 15
2 Stars = 3

Just goes to show that stars mean something but the bulk of the best players come from 3 and 4 star guys.

:hi:

Tennesseeduke
Click to expand...

Yes you are right about the Draft, go look at the last 10 College Football National Championship Teams, they ALL are full of 4 star players you will have a few 3 and 2 stars spread out on the winning team, but you need at least 15 4 stars each year to win the BIG ONE and compete for a playoff spot in the SEC, now if you are in the little 10 you can get away with a lot less.:loco:
 
#22
#22
This thread is a sure thing every year. I'm going to go ahead and predict someone will start this same thread after the first round next year. And it will be met with the same responses. Groundhog thread.
 
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#23
#23
Nobody can predict the future and know how stars will ever turn out.
Having said this it's always better to take your chances with as many 5 stars as possible. Saban would agree, and hate him or not he has set the standard for W-L excellence since he has been at Bama.
 
#24
#24
Perhaps a more relevant stat for stargazer argument would be the percentage of 5 stars drafted, percentage of 4 stars drafted, etc.
 
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