Interesting data from Rivals - Last 10 years and 5 star QB

#1

The Waco Kid

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#1
I think this certainly adds some zip behind the argument about you "must get" 5 star talent or whatever to win, especially at QB. Some interesting numbers are listed here..........and i know how many on here like to star gaze, as do other programs, but this is pretty neat.

Over the last 10 years, Rivals.com has ranked 23 quarterbacks as five-stars. Some chose the SEC and others didn’t. Two quarterbacks in the 2013 class are ranked as five-stars in USC pledge Max Browne and Penn State pledge Christian Hackenberg.

Here’s a look at five-star quarterbacks over the last 10 years:

2003 – 1 QB

Kyle Wright, Miami: Remember Kyle Wright? Wright enrolled at Miami early as the Gatorade National Player of the Year. He threw for 5,335 yards, 38 touchdowns and 31 interceptions for his career. He was booed continuously throughout his Miami career, and he was benched his senior year for Kirby Freeman. Who?! Exactly. Wright never lived up to the big hype.

QBs ranked lower: Matt Ryan, Chris Leak, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Dennis Dixon, Brady Quinn, Andre Woodson, Matt Flynn, JaMarcus Russell and Drew Tate

2004 – 5 QBs

Rhett Bomar, Oklahoma: This son of a coach was compared to the great John Elway as a blue-chip prospect. By the second game of the 2005 season, Bomar became the starter and was the MVP of the Holiday Bowl against Oregon. He was then dismissed by Bob Stoops in 2006 for reportedly being paid for work he did not complete from Big Red Sports and Imports, a car dealership owned by a major OU donor. He went to Sam Houston State, and he finished as their all-time leading passer with 5,564 yards in 19 games. Bomar was on the Oakland Raiders practice squad in 2012. He never lived up to the hype.

Xavier Lee, FSU: Lee entered FSU as Florida’s all-time passing leader and touchdowns leader in high school, but he never could cut it in college. He threw for 2,323 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in three seasons. Lee has played quarterback, wide receiver and tight end in UFL and Arena League. Lee never could flip the switch or cut it as a college quarterback.

Anthony Morelli, Penn State: The Elite 11 five-star played in all four years at Penn State. He threw for 5,275 yards, 31 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. However, he couldn’t get the starting job until his junior season and continuously fought rumors of his football IQ. Morelli is still the only Penn State quarterback to throw for more than 2,000 yards in two seasons, but Morelli never lived up to the star-studded hype.

Chad Henne, Michigan: Henne stepped on Michigan’s campus and immediately became the starter. He threw for 9,715 yards, 87 touchdowns and 37 interceptions. He threw for more than 2,500 yards in his first three seasons but just 1,938 in his final season. Henne was drafted by the Dolphins in the second round, and he currently plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Henne is arguably the only five-star quarterback from 2003 or 2004 to live up the any type of hype.
Matthew Tuiasosopo, Washington: Tuiasosopo signed with the Seattle Mariners out of high school and never played a down in college as a quarterback. [you could insert funny statement about him not being related to the Manti hoax??]

QBs ranked lower: Brian Brohm, Pat White, Brian Johnson, Graham Harrell, Daryll Clark, Curtis Painter, John Parker Wilson and Erik Ainge

2005 – 2 QBs

Mark Sanchez, USC: Sanchez sat behind Matt Leinart and John David Booty his first two seasons before starting his junior year – his only starting season at USC. He threw for 3,207 yards, 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions before being drafted by the Jets as the fifth pick overall in 2009. He is most recently known for his 2012 butt fumble.

Ryan Perrilloux, LSU: The most famous five-star bust comes in the form of Ryan Perrilloux. He’s more known for his four Heisman predictions than anything else. He was called ‘the most dangerous offensive weapon in the nation’, but he lasted just two full seasons at LSU. He only threw for 704 yards, eight touchdowns and two INTs before getting the boot from Les Miles in ‘08. He then went to Jacksonville State. He played in the UFL for Hartford Colonials. What a bust!

QBs ranked lower: Colt McCoy, Chase Daniel, Zac Robinson, Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike and Riley Skinner
2006 – 3 QBs

Matthew Stafford, Georgia: Stafford was the top overall QB in the class of ‘06, and he had an illustrious career at UGA. He threw for 7,731 yards, 51 touchdowns and 33 INTs. Stafford never won an SEC Championship or a national championship, but he became the first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Mitch Mustain, Arkansas: Arguably a greater bust than Ryan Perrilloux, Mustain started his career at Arkansas before ending it at USC. He put up monster numbers in Gus Malzahn’s offense in high school, but he never lived up to any type of hype. He threw for 894 yards, 13 touchdowns and 12 INTs in his college career.

Tim Tebow, Florida: I don’t have to tell you what all Tebow accomplished as a player. He won two national championships as a player and became the first-ever sophomore to win the Heisman trophy. He benefited from great players around him, but it was clear who Florida’s leader really was – Tebow. He threw for 9,285 yards, 88 touchdowns and 16 INTs in four seasons at Florida, while rushing for 2,947 yards and 57 touchdowns. Tebow was drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, and he played with the Jets in ‘12.

QBs ranked lower: Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Jake Locker

2007 – 4 QBs

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: The ‘once in a generation QB’ enrolled early at Notre Dame, but Clausen led UND to just a 16-21 record during his time in South Bend. He threw for 8,148 yards, 60 touchdowns and 27 INTs in three seasons. He left Notre Dame a season early and entered the draft and was picked in the second round in 2010. He backs up Cam Newton at Carolina.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: Mallett started his career at Michigan but transferred to Arkansas with Bobby Petrino. He put up monstrous numbers under Petrino, throwing for 7,493 yards, 62 touchdowns and 19 INTs in just two short seasons. He backs up Tom Brady in New England.

Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech: The dual-threat Hokies star had a great career in Blacksburg. Taylor threw for 7,017 yards, 44 touchdowns and 20 INTs, and he also rushed for 2,196 yards and 23 touchdowns. He backs up Joe Flacco in Baltimore.

Cameron Newton, Auburn: The one-time Florida backup to Tebow, Newton transferred to JUCO before landing at Auburn. Newton threw for 2,854 yards and 30 touchdowns, while rushing for 1,473 yards and 21 touchdowns in his only year at Auburn. He was the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft for Carolina.

QBs ranked lower: Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill

2008 – 3 QBs

Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State: Pryor was the nation’s #1 overall recruit in ‘08. He threw for 6,177 yards, 57 touchdowns and 26 INTs, while rushing for 2,164 yards and 19 touchdowns in three seasons. Pryor withdrew from Ohio State and entered the 2011 Supplemental Draft. He currently plays for the Oakland Raiders.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri: Gabbert had a great career at Mizzou, throwing for 6,822 yards, 40 touchdowns and 18 INTs. He also rushed for 458 yards and eight touchdowns. Gabbert went on to become a first-rounder in the 2011 draft for Jacksonville.

Dayne Crist, Notre Dame: Crist entered Notre Dame with tons of hype, and he later transferred to Kansas with Charlie Weis. He threw for 3,640 yards, 20 touchdowns and 18 INTs in his underwhelming college career.

QBs ranked lower: Andrew Luck, RG3, Collin Klein, Landry Jones, EJ Manuel, Darron Thomas, Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib

2009 – 3 QBs

Matt Barkley, USC: Barkley is the only five-star QB in 2009 to live up to any hype. Barkley had three great years with one bad year this season. He threw for 12,237 yards, 116 touchdowns and 48 INTs in four seasons. He could be a first-rounder in April.

Russell Shepard, LSU: Shepard was hyped as a QB, but he only played WR at LSU. And his career was an overall bust. Shepard never lived up to any hype in Baton Rouge.

Garrett Gilbert, Texas: Gilbert was another bust who transferred to SMU and played this season. He threw for 28 touchdowns and 38 INTs during his underwhelming career.

QBs ranked lower: AJ McCarron, Aaron Murray, Geno Smith, Tajh Boyd, Taylor Martinez, Denard Robinson, Jordan Lynch, Logan Thomas and Tyler Russell

2010

No five-star QBs
Notable QBs: Taylor Kelly, James Franklin, Tyler Bray, Blake Bell, Connor Shaw, Jake Heaps
2011

No five-star QBs

Notable QBs: Johnny Manziel, Braxton Miller, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Brett Hundley, Everett Golson and Jeff Driskel

2012 – 2 QBs

Jameis Winston, FSU: Winston redshirted his freshman season and should start for FSU in 2013.

Gunner Kiel, Notre Dame: Kiel redshirted his freshman season and will compete for playing time in 2013.

Lived up to the Hype

•Matt Barkley, USC
•Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
•Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
•Cam Newton, Auburn
•Mark Sanchez, USC
•Matt Stafford, Georgia
•Tyrod Taylor, Va Tech
•Tim Tebow, Florida

Good Careers But Mixed Reviews

•Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
•Chad Henne, Michigan
•Terrell Pryor, Ohio State

Bust

•Kyle Wright, Miami
•Rhett Bomar, OU
•Xavier Lee, FSU
•Anthony Morelli, Penn State
•Russell Shepard, LSU
•Garrett Gilbert, Texas
•Dayne Crist, Notre Dame
•Ryan Perrilloux, LSU
•Mitch Mustain, Arkansas

Undetermined

•Jameis Winston, FSU
•Gunner Kiel, Notre Dame
•Matthew Tuiasosopo, Washington
 
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#9
#9
It may not matter much at qb, but it sure as hell matters at positions like RB, de, and wr. I think that is why recruiting services rate more players at the "easier" positions to project higher than the harder positions like qb.
 
#17
#17
There's a correlation, but it's not as strong most think

Actually, it's a lot stronger than most think. LWS has a spreadsheet he posted showing where all of the 5 stars in a given year ended up. 26 out of 27 got at least a free agent shot in the NFL. The 4 stars had a much lower percentage and the three stars were much lower than the four. It was all exactly as you would expect based on the rankings.

I think that year was probably an outlier because it would seem you would be likely to get more than one guy in a class of five stars who had a career ending injury or decided he would rather sell crack and smoke weed all day.

But the correlation holds no matter what metric you use... All conference, starter etc... And no matter what time period you look at.

It is tempting to look at a list like the one above and say there is no correlation. But when you realize there are a hundred quarterbacks that are 2-4 star for every 5 star qb and if there were no correlation you would expect to only have one 5 star pan out for every 100 qbs. If you had 2 pan out then you would have a very strong correlation of twice what chance would dictate. 26 out of 27 for all positions is just ridiculous and shows why coaches all want these guys. They don't get paid millions because they can't spot talent.

People are just not very good with statistics. But they are champions of rationalizing the failures of their team. That is why they are called fans --- to denote they are not rational when it comes to certain subjects. No where is this more evident than in recruiting.

About the only thing more accurate than the rankings is the correlation between posts like this one appearing on message boards and the number of losses suffered by the teams those boards support. You can be damn sure Bama isn't worrying over having too many highly rated guys.

You can rest assured when we finally turn things around and recruiting is going well we will no longer see posts like this one.
 
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#22
#22
1. russell shepherd was recruited to be a wr from day 1.

2. more than half of those qb's panned out and started in college

3. 10 of those qb's made it to the nfl and made an nfl roster

4. let's break out the list of 3* qb's and see at what rate they succeeded.
 
#23
#23
In other words, it doesn't mean sh!t to be a 5-star QB.


no, that's not what it means at all. not even close.

of the 20 qbs he lists that the results are in for, 11 ultimately had good, productive careers for major D1 universities.

11 of 20, that's a 55% conversion rate. that's pretty damn good.

now, lets go back and count all the 3 star qb recruits and see what the conversion rate on them was. feel free to do it, you won't like the results you get. the actual numbers will not match your "feelings" on the matter.

again, 5 stars are not guaranteed, they are simply more statistically likely to pan out than 4's, 3's & 2's

this is not difficult
 
#24
#24
no, that's not what it means at all. not even close.

of the 20 qbs he lists that the results are in for, 11 ultimately had good, productive careers for major D1 universities.

11 of 20, that's a 55% conversion rate. that's pretty damn good.

now, lets go back and count all the 3 star qb recruits and see what the conversion rate on them was. feel free to do it, you won't like the results you get. the actual numbers will not match your "feelings" on the matter.

again, 5 stars are not guaranteed, they are simply more statistically likely to pan out than 4's, 3's & 2's

this is not difficult

it's like it's complicated or something
 
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#25
#25
1. russell shepherd was recruited to be a wr from day 1.

2. more than half of those qb's panned out and started in college

3. 10 of those qb's made it to the nfl and made an nfl roster

4. let's break out the list of 3* qb's and see at what rate they succeeded.

gator gets it. never ceases to amaze me how many struggle with this very very simple concept
 
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