Injuries, Lack of Depth, the '21 Recruiting Class, and Reasons for Optimism

#27
#27
Because they bought too much into the bowl game win over Clemson. They thought Milton turned the corner.
I was not a guy predicting 10 wins this season. However I totally bought in to Joe being a much better than average QB based on his play in the Clemson game. A UT HC of football is evaluated based on 3 games every year. They are UF, UGA, and Bama. Heupel went 0/3 this season against them. For his total tenure at UT he is 2/9 so far. Neither of those stats are passing grades. UF this season may not be bowl eligible which makes this season’s loss to them VERY hard to swallow. IMO Heupel’s seat is a little warm next season/2024 but if he goes 0/3 against Bama, UF, and UGA he sits in flames the 2025 season.
 
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#28
#28
Not winning consistently with DEFENSE being on the field 40 minutes out of a 60 minute game . Not unless you’re 3 deep at every position.
 
#31
#31
I figured 9 wins. I didn't see the Mizzou loss coming, honestly. Preseason or prior to the game.
Fulmer is our best coach in the modern era and his teams competed for the SEC East title about 70% of seasons.
 
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#32
#32
In all 4 losses our defense was on the field for a full qtr longer than the other teams defenses on average. Just looked at all 4 games time of possession. Ga game was longest 40-20. Ga TOP 40min Tenn 20min, Alabama, Mizzou, Florida each 15 minutes top longer. That’s pretty much giving their defense a coffee break for 15 minutes every game.
 
#33
#33
When Heupel was first hired, I made a prediction that some called stupid. I said I thought he'd be successful in the first 2 years but there'd be a dropoff in Year 3. At the beginning of this season, I picked us to go 8-4 when most of VN was saying 10-2 or 9-3 this year. I'm not Nostradamus. It's really all about the 2021 recruiting class.

The 21 Recruiting Class

Remember, Pruitt was fired in Jan '21. But his last recruiting class was a real stinker. Take a glance at it if you'd like:
2021 Tennessee Vols Football Recruiting

There are a few good players in there. Jaylen Wright in particular has developed into a great RB. Christian Charles has been a contributor, but has been injured this season. Jeremiah Crawford has been a contributor but he was actually recruited last-minute by Heupel's staff. Byron Young was good, but left for the NFL. But other than that, there's hardly anyone from that class recruited by Pruitt that's even on the roster. That should be our Junior class and will be the Senior class next season, and we have like 3 guys from that class still on the roster who have any impact whatsoever.

That's why I predicted 8-4. When Heupel came in, he had some great offensive weapons like Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt. I've known all along that there would be a dropoff this year and it's exacerbated even more like Hyatt leaving for the NFL.

The 22 Recruiting Class and NCAA Overhang

Heupel also came in late and got a late start on the '22 recruiting class, with an NCAA overhang that deterred recruits from coming here. It was one of our weaker ranked classes historically. But ... it's actually looking pretty good. Much better than the #23 ranking on 247 would suggest. James Pearce, Elijah Herring, Squirrel White, Dee Williams. Glance down the list and most of those guys are on the roster or contributing. Compared to the busted '21 class, the '22 class looks good, especially given the circumstances.

Next year, we'll have the #2 QB in the nation starting (Nico). Things will get better.

Injuries

Also remember that we got decimated by injuries this season. Out for the Georgia game: Bru McCoy, Donte Thornton, Christian Charles, Keenan Pili, Kamal Hadden, and Arion Carter. We also lost Cooper Mays and Elijah Simmons earlier in the season.

All in all, we had a weaker roster starting this season than the previous two, and we've had a lot of injuries to exacerbate that, and we're still 7-4 with a remaining home game against Vanderbilt. Not too bad, even if some fans don't want to see it.

QB Issues

Milton has been inconsistent, but if we're being honest, no top-tier QB was coming here as a transfer after Hooker broke out in '21. And Nico is likely the starter in '24, which is also likely why Tayven Jackson transferred. So if you're a transfer, you have to basically come here for 1 season and hope to beat out Milton, which is not a super-appealing situation. We just kinda got stuck in a less-than-ideal QB situation in '23 due to have an elite QB in 21/22 and a top recruit who presumably takes over in 24.

Summary

I never expected this to be a big season. People got their hopes up after last season, but lost too many key players (Hyatt, Hooker, Tillman, D-Wright) and were never exptected to have a lot of depth. The '22 class is looking like a big success in spite of the handicaps Heupel started with. If the '23 class pans out, particularly Nico, we're going to be good again soon. So it sucks losing the past 2 weeks, but we kinda ran into 2 steamrollers at the wrong time. And it really only takes a few great players to turn things around on offense. Look at Mizzou --- Brady Cook and Schrader have carried them this season. And you saw how good Carson Beck looked against us today. I think we'll have that with Nico soon!

Are there things that need to be fixed? Sure. But overall, Heupel has greatly exceeded expectations given the dire situation he inherited. And it's going to get better.

I still 100% think Heupel is "our guy".

Once the emotions of the moment have settled, the only game that we had no business losing was to Florida. That one i cannot forgive.

Otherwise, the talent or dearth thereof have provided about what we all forecast at the beginning.

What I have seen of Nico so far gives me hope though. Next year is likely to be another rebuild but 2025 is where it may all start coming together and I would be stunned if we aren’t in the playoffs.
 
#34
#34
Once the emotions of the moment have settled, the only game that we had no business losing was to Florida. That one i cannot forgive.

Otherwise, the talent or dearth thereof have provided about what we all forecast at the beginning.

What I have seen of Nico so far gives me hope though. Next year is likely to be another rebuild but 2025 is where it may all start coming together and I would be stunned if we aren’t in the playoffs.
I fully agree. The Florida loss still annoys me because we're the better team IMO and the rest of the season has proved that out.

But I don't think we were better than Mizzou and I think VN is overlooking how great their skill players were this year. And Georgia and Bama both have a massive talent edge over us this year.

That said, if we're being honest, A&M probably had a talent edge on us and we beat them. That and the Kentucky win on the road are the highlights to me.

I think we'll get better with Nico, but there might be some growing pains. I do think Milton was limiting our offense more than we'd like. Georgia and Mizzou basically said "if we prevent Joe from making big plays, he can't sustain a drive." And they were correct. He can hit an 80-yard bomb for a TD, but he can't consistently hit those 5- and 8- yard passes to open receivers to get 1st downs. The coaches chose Milton because there were only 2 options: throw a true Freshmen into the fire before he's ready or roll with a 6-year Senior with some limitations. They took the safer option, which makes sense. We were never winning the SEC regardless of who was QB this season.
 
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#35
#35
Only speaking for myself but the 8-4 is irrelevant. I want to compete for SEC Championships and once we do that bigger things lie ahead. We finished 4-4 in the SEC (marking Vandy as a win). As for recruiting, with the transfer portal and NIL money you can make up ground immediately without the best class. It's said we spend about as much as anyone. The team just doesn't look inspired. Why redshirt Nico? If he's as good as ppl are saying, he won't stay but 3 years anyway. Look forward to next year and as always GBO!
We don't know what the future holds for Nico and what he and CJH have discussed.
Nico will make that call 2 to 3 years from now based on development and recruiting.
No need to worry about it now, plus we have a top QB coming in as well.
The trenches (LOS) and the Defense is a total area of concern.
I am miffed by the lack of confidence this team has in itself. Once they get down they fold quickly. Is that youth or talent or both? Add Leadership as well.
We need a couple of HeadHunters on Defense and we can get that from the Portal if need be. HHunters that when hit by them you want to avoid being hit by them. Al Wilson, T Fair, R White, S Kiner, Reynolds Type.

Yesterday's game I give more credit to a Coach I hate. Will Muschump his record as a Coach and asst Coach against Tennessee must be in the .900s and maybe .980+.

Hendon Hooker hits 2 of the 3 passes for TDs that Milton did not and avoids the 3 and Outs that we had at least at a rate to keep us in the games.

This team did not look well prepared the last 2 weeks. Out Coached, Out Schemed and Out Played.

Injuries may have been a contributing factor.
 
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#36
#36
We don't know what the future holds for Nico and what he and CJH have discussed.
Nico will make that call 2 to 3 years from now based on development and recruiting.
No need to worry about it now, plus we have a top QB coming in as well.
The trenches (LOS) and the Defense is a total area of concern.
I am miffed by the lack of confidence this team has in itself. Once they get down they fold quickly. Is that youth or talent or both? Add Leadership as well.
We need a couple of HeadHunters on Defense and we can get that from the Portal if need be. HHunters that when hit by them you want to avoid being hit by them. Al Wilson, T Fair, R White, S Kiner, Reynolds Type.

Yesterday's game I give more credit to a Coach I hate. Will Muschump his record as a Coach and asst Coach against Tennessee must be in the .900s and maybe .980+.

Hendon Hooker hits 2 of the 3 passes for TDs that Milton did not and avoids the 3 and Outs that we had at least at a rate to keep us in the games.

This team did not look well prepared the last 2 weeks. Out Coached, Out Schemed and Out Played.

Injuries may have been a contributing factor.
They do seem to “go dark” once they get behind or something bad happens. I don’t think that’s totally a coaching issue. I just don’t think we have the “playmakers” we did last year. Even as a fan, you don’t ever think that Milton is gonna pull the ball down on 3rd and 3 and run for 6 yards. Keyton and white aren’t making 20-30yd catches over the middle to break the opposing D’s spirit. We know that. The players know that.
 
#38
#38
I fully agree. The Florida loss still annoys me because we're the better team IMO and the rest of the season has proved that out.

But I don't think we were better than Mizzou and I think VN is overlooking how great their skill players were this year. And Georgia and Bama both have a massive talent edge over us this year.

That said, if we're being honest, A&M probably had a talent edge on us and we beat them. That and the Kentucky win on the road are the highlights to me.

I think we'll get better with Nico, but there might be some growing pains. I do think Milton was limiting our offense more than we'd like. Georgia and Mizzou basically said "if we prevent Joe from making big plays, he can't sustain a drive." And they were correct. He can hit an 80-yard bomb for a TD, but he can't consistently hit those 5- and 8- yard passes to open receivers to get 1st downs. The coaches chose Milton because there were only 2 options: throw a true Freshmen into the fire before he's ready or roll with a 6-year Senior with some limitations. They took the safer option, which makes sense. We were never winning the SEC regardless of who was QB this season.
I think Mizzou's season played out much like our 2022 season.
They are taking a step back next season.
 
#39
#39
When Heupel was first hired, I made a prediction that some called stupid. I said I thought he'd be successful in the first 2 years but there'd be a dropoff in Year 3. At the beginning of this season, I picked us to go 8-4 when most of VN was saying 10-2 or 9-3 this year. I'm not Nostradamus. It's really all about the 2021 recruiting class.

The 21 Recruiting Class

Remember, Pruitt was fired in Jan '21. But his last recruiting class was a real stinker. Take a glance at it if you'd like:
2021 Tennessee Vols Football Recruiting

There are a few good players in there. Jaylen Wright in particular has developed into a great RB. Christian Charles has been a contributor, but has been injured this season. Jeremiah Crawford has been a contributor but he was actually recruited last-minute by Heupel's staff. Byron Young was good, but left for the NFL. But other than that, there's hardly anyone from that class recruited by Pruitt that's even on the roster. That should be our Junior class and will be the Senior class next season, and we have like 3 guys from that class still on the roster who have any impact whatsoever.

That's why I predicted 8-4. When Heupel came in, he had some great offensive weapons like Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt. I've known all along that there would be a dropoff this year and it's exacerbated even more like Hyatt leaving for the NFL.

The 22 Recruiting Class and NCAA Overhang

Heupel also came in late and got a late start on the '22 recruiting class, with an NCAA overhang that deterred recruits from coming here. It was one of our weaker ranked classes historically. But ... it's actually looking pretty good. Much better than the #23 ranking on 247 would suggest. James Pearce, Elijah Herring, Squirrel White, Dee Williams. Glance down the list and most of those guys are on the roster or contributing. Compared to the busted '21 class, the '22 class looks good, especially given the circumstances.

Next year, we'll have the #2 QB in the nation starting (Nico). Things will get better.

Injuries

Also remember that we got decimated by injuries this season. Out for the Georgia game: Bru McCoy, Donte Thornton, Christian Charles, Keenan Pili, Kamal Hadden, and Arion Carter. We also lost Cooper Mays and Elijah Simmons earlier in the season.

All in all, we had a weaker roster starting this season than the previous two, and we've had a lot of injuries to exacerbate that, and we're still 7-4 with a remaining home game against Vanderbilt. Not too bad, even if some fans don't want to see it.

QB Issues

Milton has been inconsistent, but if we're being honest, no top-tier QB was coming here as a transfer after Hooker broke out in '21. And Nico is likely the starter in '24, which is also likely why Tayven Jackson transferred. So if you're a transfer, you have to basically come here for 1 season and hope to beat out Milton, which is not a super-appealing situation. We just kinda got stuck in a less-than-ideal QB situation in '23 due to have an elite QB in 21/22 and a top recruit who presumably takes over in 24.

Summary

I never expected this to be a big season. People got their hopes up after last season, but lost too many key players (Hyatt, Hooker, Tillman, D-Wright) and were never exptected to have a lot of depth. The '22 class is looking like a big success in spite of the handicaps Heupel started with. If the '23 class pans out, particularly Nico, we're going to be good again soon. So it sucks losing the past 2 weeks, but we kinda ran into 2 steamrollers at the wrong time. And it really only takes a few great players to turn things around on offense. Look at Mizzou --- Brady Cook and Schrader have carried them this season. And you saw how good Carson Beck looked against us today. I think we'll have that with Nico soon!

Are there things that need to be fixed? Sure. But overall, Heupel has greatly exceeded expectations given the dire situation he inherited. And it's going to get better.

I still 100% think Heupel is "our guy".
Great post OP. Good perspective.
 
#40
#40
In all 4 losses our defense was on the field for a full qtr longer than the other teams defenses on average. Just looked at all 4 games time of possession. Ga game was longest 40-20. Ga TOP 40min Tenn 20min, Alabama, Mizzou, Florida each 15 minutes top longer. That’s pretty much giving their defense a coffee break for 15 minutes every game.
The one thing you CANNOT have with a tempo offense is three and outs. It puts the defense in an untenable position and it snowballs with each occurrence
 
#41
#41
I fully agree. The Florida loss still annoys me because we're the better team IMO and the rest of the season has proved that out.

But I don't think we were better than Mizzou and I think VN is overlooking how great their skill players were this year. And Georgia and Bama both have a massive talent edge over us this year.

That said, if we're being honest, A&M probably had a talent edge on us and we beat them. That and the Kentucky win on the road are the highlights to me.

I think we'll get better with Nico, but there might be some growing pains. I do think Milton was limiting our offense more than we'd like. Georgia and Mizzou basically said "if we prevent Joe from making big plays, he can't sustain a drive." And they were correct. He can hit an 80-yard bomb for a TD, but he can't consistently hit those 5- and 8- yard passes to open receivers to get 1st downs. The coaches chose Milton because there were only 2 options: throw a true Freshmen into the fire before he's ready or roll with a 6-year Senior with some limitations. They took the safer option, which makes sense. We were never winning the SEC regardless of who was QB this season.
Love your post Ghost but he had more than 2 options . Gaston Moore was available. We all saw he had at least a little magic in the orange and white game. Am I the only one who would have liked to at least see what he could do ?
 
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#42
#42
Once the emotions of the moment have settled, the only game that we had no business losing was to Florida. That one i cannot forgive.

Otherwise, the talent or dearth thereof have provided about what we all forecast at the beginning.

What I have seen of Nico so far gives me hope though. Next year is likely to be another rebuild but 2025 is where it may all start coming together and I would be stunned if we aren’t in the playoffs.
Agree very much with this post. I don't really expect next year to be much better...well maybe 1 game better. We should be very good in 2025 when some of our young talent matures, and overall talent is more comparable to the big boys.
 
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#44
#44
I feel like people want to compare new coaches to Nick Saban, which I understand. But I think they are trying to compare it to the wrong part of Saban's career. They try to compare it to his Alabama tenure -- instead they need to compare it to his LSU tenure.

Saban came to LSU in 2000 and went 8-4 w/ a win in the Peach Bowl.
In his 2nd season, he went 10-3 w/ a win in the Sugar Bowl.
Year 3, he regressed back to 8-5 & lost the Cotton Bowl.
Year 4, 13-1 with a National Championship.

Heupel has had similar pattern through the first 3 seasons:
7-6, loss (controversial) in the Music City Bowl
11-2, win in Orange Bowl (beat Alabama & Florida)
currently 7-4 w/ the possibility to go 9-4 w/ a bowl win

In all honesty, if you would've asked this fanbase if they would be happy w/ those first 3 seasons from a new coach after firing Pruitt, everyone would have happily said yes. And the reason I think people should stop comparing new coaches to Saban's tenure at Alabama is: Saban was already a proven commodity & considered a "big fish" when Alabama hired him away from the NFL. Once he got to campus, the recruiting talent started pouring in almost immediately. When Saban took the job at LSU, he was a recognizable name, but not a known commodity, as he was coming from Michigan St. where he had a 34-24-1 overall record & went 0-3 in bowl games he coached. He had to build his team through recruiting for a couple of seasons & prove himself before getting to the top.

There are people in the fanbase who simply need to relax and understand that this whole process is a marathon, not a sprint -- and that process isn't always perfect. Heupel is working the trail & also has the benefit of the portal. We have the best QB of the 2022 class taking over next year. We should be returning several pieces at the skill positions from this year's offense -- unsure about the OL, I think we have a couple of guys who can come back (someone with better knowledge of who is eligible for the Super-Senior year & redshirts can provide a lineup).

Now, I don't quite think we will win a National Championship next year like Saban did in his 4th season at LSU, but who knows. LSU finished 2002 @ 8-5 & unranked. Started the 2003 season ranked #13 -- I found one website who projected the team to finish 9-3 & that 2003 would be a "build-up" year for a 2004 run. They went on to win the Natty. Saban did it with defense -- Heupel will have to do it (primarily) w/ offense.

I believe the team is in good hands and we are on to better days.
 
#45
#45
Once the emotions of the moment have settled, the only game that we had no business losing was to Florida. That one i cannot forgive.

Otherwise, the talent or dearth thereof have provided about what we all forecast at the beginning.

What I have seen of Nico so far gives me hope though. Next year is likely to be another rebuild but 2025 is where it may all start coming together and I would be stunned if we aren’t in the playoffs.

Remember starting next season will be the first 12 team playoff so there is a chance next year. But agree with both you and the OP.
 
#46
#46
I fully agree. The Florida loss still annoys me because we're the better team IMO and the rest of the season has proved that out.

But I don't think we were better than Mizzou and I think VN is overlooking how great their skill players were this year. And Georgia and Bama both have a massive talent edge over us this year.

That said, if we're being honest, A&M probably had a talent edge on us and we beat them. That and the Kentucky win on the road are the highlights to me.

I think we'll get better with Nico, but there might be some growing pains. I do think Milton was limiting our offense more than we'd like. Georgia and Mizzou basically said "if we prevent Joe from making big plays, he can't sustain a drive." And they were correct. He can hit an 80-yard bomb for a TD, but he can't consistently hit those 5- and 8- yard passes to open receivers to get 1st downs. The coaches chose Milton because there were only 2 options: throw a true Freshmen into the fire before he's ready or roll with a 6-year Senior with some limitations. They took the safer option, which makes sense. We were never winning the SEC regardless of who was QB this season.
Your original post and this has calmed me down.
I think Joe is good VFL he's just an avg. QB that can't overcome going aagainst a halfway good defense, injuries and youth surrounding him. He has a canon just couldn't put it together. I'm over it now. Maybe Nico plays a half.
Hopefully he got a degree and I wish him the best.
 
#47
#47
Agree with everything on this post. I would, however, mention that I believe some sort of coaching change needs to happen on the defensive side of the ball. I think its totally rational and appropriate for fans to expect much more in year three than the product that was on the field this season.
 
#49
#49
When Heupel was first hired, I made a prediction that some called stupid. I said I thought he'd be successful in the first 2 years but there'd be a dropoff in Year 3. At the beginning of this season, I picked us to go 8-4 when most of VN was saying 10-2 or 9-3 this year. I'm not Nostradamus. It's really all about the 2021 recruiting class.

The 21 Recruiting Class

Remember, Pruitt was fired in Jan '21. But his last recruiting class was a real stinker. Take a glance at it if you'd like:
2021 Tennessee Vols Football Recruiting

There are a few good players in there. Jaylen Wright in particular has developed into a great RB. Christian Charles has been a contributor, but has been injured this season. Jeremiah Crawford has been a contributor but he was actually recruited last-minute by Heupel's staff. Byron Young was good, but left for the NFL. But other than that, there's hardly anyone from that class recruited by Pruitt that's even on the roster. That should be our Junior class and will be the Senior class next season, and we have like 3 guys from that class still on the roster who have any impact whatsoever.

That's why I predicted 8-4. When Heupel came in, he had some great offensive weapons like Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt. I've known all along that there would be a dropoff this year and it's exacerbated even more like Hyatt leaving for the NFL.

The 22 Recruiting Class and NCAA Overhang

Heupel also came in late and got a late start on the '22 recruiting class, with an NCAA overhang that deterred recruits from coming here. It was one of our weaker ranked classes historically. But ... it's actually looking pretty good. Much better than the #23 ranking on 247 would suggest. James Pearce, Elijah Herring, Squirrel White, Dee Williams. Glance down the list and most of those guys are on the roster or contributing. Compared to the busted '21 class, the '22 class looks good, especially given the circumstances.

Next year, we'll have the #2 QB in the nation starting (Nico). Things will get better.

Injuries

Also remember that we got decimated by injuries this season. Out for the Georgia game: Bru McCoy, Donte Thornton, Christian Charles, Keenan Pili, Kamal Hadden, and Arion Carter. We also lost Cooper Mays and Elijah Simmons earlier in the season.

All in all, we had a weaker roster starting this season than the previous two, and we've had a lot of injuries to exacerbate that, and we're still 7-4 with a remaining home game against Vanderbilt. Not too bad, even if some fans don't want to see it.

QB Issues

Milton has been inconsistent, but if we're being honest, no top-tier QB was coming here as a transfer after Hooker broke out in '21. And Nico is likely the starter in '24, which is also likely why Tayven Jackson transferred. So if you're a transfer, you have to basically come here for 1 season and hope to beat out Milton, which is not a super-appealing situation. We just kinda got stuck in a less-than-ideal QB situation in '23 due to have an elite QB in 21/22 and a top recruit who presumably takes over in 24.

Summary

I never expected this to be a big season. People got their hopes up after last season, but lost too many key players (Hyatt, Hooker, Tillman, D-Wright) and were never exptected to have a lot of depth. The '22 class is looking like a big success in spite of the handicaps Heupel started with. If the '23 class pans out, particularly Nico, we're going to be good again soon. So it sucks losing the past 2 weeks, but we kinda ran into 2 steamrollers at the wrong time. And it really only takes a few great players to turn things around on offense. Look at Mizzou --- Brady Cook and Schrader have carried them this season. And you saw how good Carson Beck looked against us today. I think we'll have that with Nico soon!

Are there things that need to be fixed? Sure. But overall, Heupel has greatly exceeded expectations given the dire situation he inherited. And it's going to get better.

I still 100% think Heupel is "our guy".

Great post. The vast, vast majority of VOL fans feel this way and are very supportive of CJH and staff. As always the small, meaningless contingent of miserable Negas scream from the hilltops on VN though to make as much noise as possible....and the trolls among them of course.

Like Coach Majors said " the Legions of the Miserable" will never be happy regardless. Fortunately, I do not think they ever attend Neyland, support the collective, nor represent VOL fans in general. They just suck.
 
#50
#50
Some of the kids that transferred out when Coach Heupel was hired excelled at their new schools & some of them are still playing at their new university or in the NFL. Of these 25 players that left Tennessee most were ineligible because they were given bags of money from Beldar Cornbread's staff & family in violation of NCAA rules & were forced out by the new Athletic Director's staff. In Heupel's first season 25 players exited the program, the most of any college in the nation. The loss of the two leading rushers & some of the better players from the defense in Heupel's inaugural year left the Vols short on talent & numbers of scholarship players. The staff has done a remarkable job, but will have to show a lot of improvement in the next two seasons; I predicted 8 or 9 wins this season, but was hoping for 15. I am disappointed with some of the margins, but after the Florida disaster was pleasantly surprised that we didn't drop 2 of the games out of South Carolina, Texas A&M & Kentucky. These coaches know way more than I do & I trust them to get the Vols back to contention for National Championships in the near future. GO VOLS ‼️
 

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