IMO this is why it's such a uphill climb to the top

#51
#51
all those players are not what they were projected to be. some are busts. also, many lower level players turn out to be much better than anticipated.
IOW, the argument is valid, but take it for what its worth.
 
#52
#52
LWSVOL said:
there is enough talent in Florida to service all the upper tier schools, the big 3 plus UCF and USF. Plenty of talent.

I've always contended, the top 25 3 stars in Florida would be 4 star players in Tennessee. Coaches still have to develop them. You can't do what Tennessee has done the last 20 years which is recruit and fail to develop in general.
Click to expand...


I think you are spot on with the star levels in FL. Our fight will always be tougher than GA, FL, LSU, Bama (more national), and now Texas and TAM. The good news is those talent rich states are finding their kids are more mobile than in the past too. The trick is going to be getting in on the right guys and winning enough to close the gap. CPF on the rise got good and got lucky at the same time, but then trends went against him and folks wanted to interpret that he got lazy. I don't think it was an effort issue, just started loosing needed guys to the schools that took over the rising position in the region. Signing day surprises to places like AU and LSU are still fresh in my mind.

We kind of have a sexy label this year and we shall see how this staff's evaluation skills are with this first real class. And who knows how the whole NIL thing is going to go? We can get BETTER without the truly impactive 5 star guys, but we will need to work our way into those battles to get into the BEST conversation. Plucking some high end upper 4 star guys with creative assistance from NIL needs to happen, Can't believe we are not encouraging some partners to get us there within the rules.
 
#53
#53
GUNTERSVOL said:
I think you are spot on with the star levels in FL. Our fight will always be tougher than GA, FL, LSU, Bama (more national), and now Texas and TAM. The good news is those talent rich states are finding their kids are more mobile than in the past too. The trick is going to be getting in on the right guys and winning enough to close the gap. CPF on the rise got good and got lucky at the same time, but then trends went against him and folks wanted to interpret that he got lazy. I don't think it was an effort issue, just started loosing needed guys to the schools that took over the rising position in the region. Signing day surprises to places like AU and LSU are still fresh in my mind.

We kind of have a sexy label this year and we shall see how this staff's evaluation skills are with this first real class. And who knows how the whole NIL thing is going to go? We can get BETTER without the truly impactive 5 star guys, but we will need to work our way into those battles to get into the BEST conversation. Plucking some high end upper 4 star guys with creative assistance from NIL needs to happen, Can't believe we are not encouraging some partners to get us there within the rules.
Click to expand...

Spot on. I was exposed to their recruiting efforts a lot as I was close with several of his recruiters throughout his tenure. Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Carolina, etc all upgraded their staffs and started to rake in the recruits UT was getting in the 90s. Didn't mean UT stopped recruiting high level players they just stayed home more.
 
#54
#54
camp_steveo said:
all those players are not what they were projected to be. some are busts. also, many lower level players turn out to be much better than anticipated.
IOW, the argument is valid, but take it for what its worth.
Click to expand...
5 stars get drafted at a 60% clip. 4 stars at a 20% clip. A lot more 3 stars get drafted than 4 or 5 stars but as a percentage its only about 5%. Give me 4 and 5 stars any day than hoping you find the 3 star hiding in the hay stack
 
  • Like
Reactions: overseasorange2
#55
#55
Mtnvol80 said:
5 stars get drafted at a 60% clip. 4 stars at a 20% clip. A lot more 3 stars get drafted than 4 or 5 stars but as a percentage its only about 5%. Give me 4 and 5 stars any day than hoping you find the 3 star hiding in the hay stack
Click to expand...

They are definitely the exception and not the rule.
 
#56
#56
I read an article on Saturdaysdownsouth that said expanding the playoffs would make a big recruiting difference as right now only the elite 5-6 teams that the 4 team playoff pool is picked from gets first dibs on the best players. If you want to be in the playoffs come here otherwise you will be playing in a toilet bowl is best you can do. A team like ours will never even be in the running for these guys.

Probably some truth here. Also the NIL deals are changing things big time now. Its free agency.
 
#57
#57
Mtnvol80 said:
5 stars get drafted at a 60% clip. 4 stars at a 20% clip. A lot more 3 stars get drafted than 4 or 5 stars but as a percentage its only about 5%. Give me 4 and 5 stars any day than hoping you find the 3 star hiding in the hay stack
Click to expand...

The missing relevant data point is the % of 3 stars receiving multiple P5 offers that get drafted. Using the whole 3 star pool is kind of worthless. Not all facts are created equal.
 
#59
#59
GUNTERSVOL said:
The missing relevant data point is the % of 3 stars receiving multiple P5 offers that get drafted. Using the whole 3 star pool is kind of worthless. Not all facts are created equal.
Click to expand...
It's not worthless. 4 and 5 stars get drafted at a much higher rate. There's 50x more 3 stars than 5 stars and only a handful of that number get drafted. I don't see how you can twist the data to make a case for 3 stars
 
#60
#60
@sechamp2012 I took your data and expanded it to include high school graduating classes of 2017-2022. To differentiate ranks 1-65 and 66-130, I weighted the categories by giving 2 points to all players in 1-65 and 1 point to all players ranked 66-130. Yes, that treats all players 1-65 as the same, but I wanted to stay within the scope of the OP's initial calculation. I used only rivals.com initial signing data, so I did not account for transfers. The following tables show the relative rankings of the top 130 rivals' players over those years with the total weighted score for each school. I also included a table for each conference showing the totals from the larger table. As expected, the SEC is far outpacing the other conferences. For TN, I also looked at the current roster to determine if the top-130 players were on this year's roster.

  • 2017, 0 of the 3 top-130 players remain
  • 2018, 1 of 3 was on the roster (A. Taylor)
  • 2019, 1 of 4 was on the roster (D. Wright)
  • 2020, 2 of 5 were on the roster (T. Baron and O. Thomas)
  • 2021, 1 of 1 was on the roster (A. Willis)
  • From 2017-2021, only 5 of our 16 top-130 players are on the current Tennessee roster. Since the two 2022 kids are not on campus, they were excluded.

recruiting 2017-2022 by school.jpg

recruiting 2017-2022 by conf.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: sechamp2012
#61
#61
Strong rumor that Caleb Williams going to transfer from Oklahoma to Georgia.

that is why we will play second fiddle in the East to Georgia for a long time. They are about to become Alabama # 2 in the SEC.

UGA and Bama will be knocking heads for elite recruits and elite transfers for a long time. A&M might give them a run for it with their billions in donor monies.
 
#62
#62
We have to pay these guys period. Those who effectively navigate NIL will be the kings. Mimic whatever tf A&M is doing
 
#63
#63
Mtnvol80 said:
It's not worthless. 4 and 5 stars get drafted at a much higher rate. There's 50x more 3 stars than 5 stars and only a handful of that number get drafted. I don't see how you can twist the data to make a case for 3 stars
Click to expand...

Way too many lower 3 stars get in for playing and trying to get noticed, and good for them, but should not be in the
the calculations. Like I said run some numbers for p5 or P5 and G5 and see what those look like.
 
#64
#64
GUNTERSVOL said:
Way too many lower 3 stars get in for playing and trying to get noticed, and good for them, but should not be in the
the calculations. Like I said run some numbers for p5 or P5 and G5 and see what those look like.
Click to expand...
I honestly do not know what your asking. Run what numbers? I've ran the numbers for each star rating. Run the numbers for each team that's made the championship. Again they're stacked with 4 and 5 stars. That's the common denominator in elite teams.
 
#65
#65
Mtnvol80 said:
I honestly do not know what your asking. Run what numbers? I've ran the numbers for each star rating. Run the numbers for each team that's made the championship. Again they're stacked with 4 and 5 stars. That's the common denominator in elite teams.
Click to expand...

what are the numbers for 5.7 &5.8 3 stars compared to 5.5 and 5.6 3 stars? Those guys with the higher numbers have been analyzed and validated much more than guys down the stream. You get to be a 5.5 by submission pretty much. Lack of detail on most lower rated guys is telling.
 
#66
#66
Nationdom said:
we are not behind in talent to beat everyone but the big 3.
Click to expand...
Still not sure how you come to that other than the 247 talent metrics which are highly skewed for a few reasons when it comes to various teams. Coach Huepel got a lot out of that roster considering how few scholarship players were there. The 247 metric up until very recently included Solomon and Bailey still ... for all teams it includes the QB room as a whole which means they are weighing in multiple 4 stars or 5s in some cases but only one can take the field at any given time so measuring the team with Hooker, Milton and still, Bailey, is kind of hollow
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top