If Coach Barnes gets this team to the Sweet 16...

#101
#101
orangemadam said:
So there is no stigma to Barnes' teams choking in the March Classic?

Guess I've just been having a long nightmare reading about how his teams
have a reputation for losing the big ones in March to lower seeded teams. Sure thought it was real.
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See, you sound ridiculous right out of the gate calling it 'choking'. And the 'reputation' is only amplified by low information fans who hear garbage like that on sports radio or ESPN and quote it like the gospel.

Knowledgeable fans understand that there is nuance involved, and things like matchups, health, experience, officiating, and luck are all factors in a one-and-done tournament like the NCAA's, which are more often than not crap shoots. The example of Scott Drew is a good one - is he not a choker for having that one charmed NCAA run, when he otherwise made a few Sweet 16's and multiple early exits?

I'm certain that anyone with half a clue will only think of Barnes as a Hall of Fame level coach, one of the best that ever did it, and a guy who elevated every program he ever coached, when his time is up.
 
#103
#103
VolFreakJosh said:
Once again, tell me how it will affect his legacy?

Because you said so?

Also, if making it to the 2nd Elite 8 in our programs history is considered “choking” by your standards, then lots of teams would love to be in our shoes right now.

Your logic is dumb.
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your reading comprehension is lacking. I said his legacy for March tournament play. He is a
remarkable seasonal and league coach. Not so much a NCAAT coach. His last 12 trips to the NCAAT shows
him getting beaten in the first weekend 9 times out of 12. That is not stellar play.
 
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#104
#104
wtmvol said:
That stat is true. But that's the thing about stats - you can usually bend them to tell the story you want to tell. You could also say that he's made the 2nd weekend 3 out of the last 5 tournaments. You could say that Bruce Pearl has lost in the 1st weekend 4 out of the last 5 tournaments he's been in. Or you could highlight the Final 4 run he had or expand the timeframe to make the 2nd weekend % higher.

So, what story do you want to tell about Rick Barnes? You could say that his teams have never beaten a higher seeded team (true), that he had a string of 7 straight 1st weekend losses between Texas and Tennessee (true), that his overall tournament record is barely above .500 (true)... or, you could say his tournament record at Tennessee (9-6) is better than Pearl's was at Tennessee (8-6), that he could become the 1st Vols coach to ever make the 2nd weekend 3 years in a row, or that his regular seasons are generally successful enough that he earns his team a high enough seed that beating a higher seeded team would require a very deep run.

Bottom line for me, Rick Barnes is a HOF coach without question. His tournament record clearly isn't great, but his last 6 years at Texas where things clearly got stale make the numbers look a little worse than it should. Do I expect a Final 4 this year? No. Our margin for error isn't very high, and I just don't see us winning 2-3 very tough games in a row. But if we fall short, I don't think it's because Barnes sucks or anything.
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Your last paragraph is all I was saying. He is not a stellar NCAAT coach, only average.
His draw for this tourney is the best of any two seed. There should be no reason
not to make the EE again this year. It will be a major disappointment if the EE is not reached.
 
#105
#105
omghulkhands said:
The analytics have us as roughly 50% chance to make it to the EE. Only 5 teams have better odds.

So 5th best odds are effectively still a coin flip.

Interested on what your perspective is with that.
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UT has the most favorable draw of any other two seed in the tournament.
Failure to reach the EE with this seeding and with this roster will be a major
disappointment. The matchups in this region is even more favorable that the
draw that Fla has with the 1 seed. Vols are fortunate that they didn't get the fourth #1 seed.

I encourage you to read the Fansided article posted yesterday.
 
#106
#106
orangemadam said:
UT has the most favorable draw of any other two seed in the tournament.
Failure to reach the EE with this seeding and with this roster will be a major
disappointment. The matchups in this region is even more favorable that the
draw that Fla has with the 1 seed. Vols are fortunate that they didn't get the fourth #1 seed.

I encourage you to read the Fansided article posted yesterday.
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That didn’t answer my question.

Would it be helpful if I were to rephrase it?
 
#108
#108
orangemadam said:
I gave you my take. Like my mama says "you would argue with a stop sign"
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I’m not arguing.

I’m just genuinely curious about how you think.

So we’ll take a measured approach and ask questions in a series.

We’ll start with…

Do you believe we have approximately (emphasis on approximately) a 50% chance to achieve the Elite Eight?

(which as you said, would be best among all 2 seeds)

If not, why?
 
#110
#110
VolCalls said:
The tournament was seeded during those early 80's appearances against Virginia, there just weren't as many teams participating. They were a #1 seed both of those years while we were a #4 in 1981 (lost in Sweet 16) and a #8 in 1982 (lost in 2nd round).
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Yes. I should have made my comments as separate paragraphs. In UT’s first four NCAAT games there wasn’t any seeding. Maybe geography was the main criteria.

Then they started seeding with DeVoe’s trips but unfortunately we had the draws against a nearly unstoppable, generational rim protecting 7’4” freak in consecutive years. They might have tried to keep the regional more geopgraphical - so UT and UVa were unfortunately in close proximity.
 
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#111
#111
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Yes. I should have made my comments as separate paragraphs. In UT’s first four NCAAT games there wasn’t any seeding. Maybe geography was the main criteria.

Then they started seeding with DeVoe’s trips but unfortunately we had the draws against a nearly unstoppable, generational rim protecting 7’4” freak in consecutive years. They might have tried to keep the regional more geopgraphical - so UT and UVa were unfortunately in close proximity.
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The crazy thing about it is Virginia made the Final Four in 1984, the year after Sampson graduated.
 
#112
#112
I actually think this bracket sets us up for the final four. If we lose before that Barnes got out coached in the tourney again.
 
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#115
#115
orangemadam said:
So there is no stigma to Barnes' teams choking in the March Classic?

Guess I've just been having a long nightmare reading about how his teams
have a reputation for losing the big ones in March to lower seeded teams. Sure thought it was real.
Click to expand...
This season won’t change anything though. He’s made 2 SS and an EE in the last 5 at UT. He’s matched the furthest we’ve ever been…once before. This discussion is tiresome.
 
#118
#118
For some reason, a Tennessee-Houston matchup for a trip to the final four would remind me of the Texas-Tennessee game of 2006. I don’t know why, but I have a feeling the Vols would do well against the Cougars. The Big XII is nowhere near the level of the SEC this year, and Houston hasn’t been tested the way Tennessee has.
 
#121
#121
Whew there are some dumb statements in this thread. Anyway, Sweet 16 is the floor, Champ game I believe is the ceiling. Yes if you get that far you can win it but my gut is saying we won’t. Our metrics certainly have us in the discussion though. I’ve said all along we will at least make the Elite 8 so I won’t back off that now. My actual call is we will hit our first Final 4 and lose to Duke there. Watch out for that Sweet 16 game though. Illinois is healthy again and I believe that’s who we will see there. Could be UK who beat us twice of course but we will clip them this time if they make it. Won’t be easy either way. I’m just excited to tip it off tonight! I expect Wofford will hang around far longer than fans would like but nothing like the last time we saw them in a 2/15 game. They are BY FAR the most offensively capable 15 seed, coming in at a respectable 67th in KP offensive efficiency. Vols by 17.
 
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#123
#123
NEO said:
No. But every team before that would be a yes. Not a single team before that should TN lose too no matter what.
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We could be playing UK in the SS. They’ve beaten us twice already this year and seem to be a bad matchup for us. If we both get that far, I wouldn’t consider that game a guaranteed win.
 
#124
#124
Col_Cathcart said:
We could be playing UK in the SS. They’ve beaten us twice already this year and seem to be a bad matchup for us. If we both get that far, I wouldn’t consider that game a guaranteed win.
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Should be in almost every aspect. Young coach has simply outcoached Barnes both times.
 
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