Last year a similar situation happened with SMU. They were 8 and lost the ACC championship game. They only dropped SMU below the other team (Boise State) who played in a conference championship to # 10 effectively keeping them in the playoffs. They did not move #11 Bama or # 12 Miami up, so they did not make the playoffs. The argument was that those teams did not play so there was nothing to support moving them. They did however move Arizona State to # 12 but that was because they won the Big 12 championship and were in the field anyway.
They set a precedence last year - if they hold to that, then Bama is in. If they don't it will get crazy - but maybe crazy is what is needed to force more transparency in how they rank these teams.
Edited to add - they are not going to move Bama below BYU that lost - but they may move them below ND even though ND did not play.