I think this is recruiting related

#3
#3
Looks like I'll have to check this out at home. Link won't work at the office.
 
#4
#4
LWSVOL said:
attaching a link which shows the BCS schools attrition rates to this date. Attrition is based on players that did not complete eligibility at the school they signed with. The only area I did not include with the count is players that leave early for NFL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hFS1lSX00tTkZhZ3VxbnlOeWc&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Click to expand...

Very well done. I have my handicapping methodology set up on excel. Nice to see more objective analysis on this board. Just a suggestion. Should convert it to a PDF so the information can not be altered.

:thumbsup:
 
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#7
#7
I scanned the numbers for SEC schools, looks like programs with stability at the Head Coaching position have less attrition than those with multiple changes at the top....a good read, Thanks for posting
 
#8
#8
Attrition has been the one of the top two biggest issues with the Vols of late IMO. And the other issue I'd say has been coaching turnover, which feeds attrition, which fuels coaches changing. So ultimately they go hand in hand. We can look at our past recruiting rankings, but those are so far from the truth at this point they hardly carry any merit. The real story on the status of the team's overall talent is captured after attrition has been considered.
 
#10
#10
Also, to go back to '02 doesn't really help us much when looking at our current situation. That still takes into account the last 7 years (counting '02) of Fulmer's tenure. A time frame of say '06/'07 to the present would give us a more accurate idea of the effect multiple coaches have had on our attrition rate. Just my $0.02
 
#12
#12
SecondYearVol said:
Document starts tracking in 2002. I'd love to compare that number with say our 2007-2013 number.
Click to expand...

Gotcha. I guess one could assume that with one coach throughout those years we would be at 32% (like Georgia) and with the most turnover we would be at 45% (Auburn). That would average out to .0385 attrition, which we pretty much have.

Therefore, our attrition over the last 4 years has probably been nothing different than Auburn's over the last 10.
 
#14
#14
volglass said:
Gotcha. I guess one could assume that with one coach throughout those years we would be at 32% (like Georgia) and with the most turnover we would be at 45% (Auburn). That would average out to .0385 attrition, which we pretty much have.

Therefore, our attrition over the last 4 years has probably been nothing different than Auburn's over the last 10.
Click to expand...

It likely could be. It just feels like the last few years have been brutal from a retention standpoint. Here's a fly in your ointment though, those attrition numbers don't necessarily take into account the "quality" of a player leaving do they? I mean, the fact of the matter is that there are good players, bad players, and great players. Losing a guy like Bryce Brown or DaRick (character issues aside, going strictly on talent here) is going to "hit" the overall talent pool much harder than a 5th string TE for example. Just another thought.
 
#15
#15
Looked at ours real quick. The following is a breakdown of our past 4 classes. I used Rivals for ratings (ya I know that composite would be better but I was in a hurry) and only considered 4 and 5 star prospects we signed. I wanted to get an idea of how much of our "top" talent we have retained lately. Sadly I knew going in the results weren't desirable. First off we haven't signed a 5* since Da'Rick in 2010, so all names listed are varying degrees of 4*. Also speaking of 2010, all the 4* prospects in that class have moved on by now (i.e. we will have no 4* red shirt seniors this season). This makes this class hardly worth mentioning at this point. Anyhow, here is the breakdown:

Class of 2011:
Graduated/NFL:
Bryon Moore
Tiny Richardson
No Longer With The Program:
DeAnthony Arnett
Cam Clear
Mo Couch
Izauea Lanier
Pat Martin
Still a Vol:
Justin Coleman
Marcus Jackson
AJ Johnson?
Marlin Lane
Curt Maggitt

Class of 2012:
Graduated/NFL:
Dan McCullers
Cordarrelle Patterson
No Longer With The Program:
Deion Bonner
Davante Bourque
Dante Phillips
Still a Vol:
Drae Bowles
Jason Croom
Pig Howard
LaDarell McNiel
Danny O'Brien
Nathan Peterman

Class of 2013:
Still a Vol:
Jason Carr
Paul harris
Marquez North
Jalen Reeves-Maybin
Austin Sanders

The bad news? We only have 15-16 (depending on AJ) 4* players on roster for next season. Roughly half of the top tier of talent in '11 and '12 are no longer wearing orange for whatever reason.

The good news? Save Bowles, Peterman, and maybe Harris, arguments can be made that every other player listed as still a Vol will have a big impact on our 2 deep next year. Those three could come out and surprise us too.

The better news? In the '14 class we have two 5* and 16 4* prospects coming in as it stands. That one class alone has more "top tier" talent than what Dooley left us in the course of three seasons.

Not saying that this is gospel truth, but it does point out some general patterns that we've witnessed over the past few years. We had a lot of bad apples in our classes that destroyed our talent levels (Clear, Bonner, Bourque, Phillips...). Anyhow, the eyeball test of characters that Butch is bringing in suggests that our future player's moral values won't be as much of an issue anymore.

Here's to us having more of our top tier players being successful!:toast:
 
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#16
#16
volglass said:
Ours seems right about average unless I'm missing something.
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that's what i thought,going by those numbers our attrition rate wasn't as bad as i thought it would be,it would be nice to see the totals for CPF,since UT was supposedly a bunch of thugs then and no LWS don't do it,i appreciate what you have done :hi: that is some awesome stats
 
#17
#17
SecondYearVol said:
It likely could be. It just feels like the last few years have been brutal from a retention standpoint. Here's a fly in your ointment though, those attrition numbers don't necessarily take into account the "quality" of a player leaving do they? I mean, the fact of the matter is that there are good players, bad players, and great players. Losing a guy like Bryce Brown or DaRick (character issues aside, going strictly on talent here) is going to "hit" the overall talent pool much harder than a 5th string TE for example. Just another thought.
Click to expand...

Good points. All these numbers seem to mean is that low attrition plus recruiting top 15 classes equals more wins. Who would've thought? But thanks for sharing, LWS!
 
#18
#18
governmentmule said:
that's what i thought,going by those numbers our attrition rate wasn't as bad as i thought it would be,it would be nice to see the totals for CPF,since UT was supposedly a bunch of thugs then and no LWS don't do it,i appreciate what you have done :hi: that is some awesome stats
Click to expand...

there is a document on there that has UT signing classes back to 1966. I think I have already documented what happened to his recruits in that spreadsheet
 
#20
#20
ScottyG210 said:
I scanned the numbers for SEC schools, looks like programs with stability at the Head Coaching position have less attrition than those with multiple changes at the top....a good read, Thanks for posting
Click to expand...

:)
 

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#22
#22
jjay2518 said:
Wow, 79% attrition in 2010. That's...ummm.....not good.
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You're welcome!

kiffin9.mp2310738_t607.jpg
 
#24
#24
volglass said:
Good points. All these numbers seem to mean is that low attrition plus recruiting top 15 classes equals more wins. Who would've thought? But thanks for sharing, LWS!
Click to expand...

attrition is going to happen. more attrition happens with coaching changes but normal attrition will be 35-40%, somewhere in that range.

to be able to compete yearly with that type attrition in this conference, you must be top 5 IN the conference in recruiting year in and year out. that way you compete while absorbing the normal attrition rates. Being in top 5 means a lot of 4 and 5 star players..

coaching stability is critical also to develop those players. very few players come into college without needing development.
 
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