I was going to wait until the morning to do this but I was too excited and couldn't sleep.
Tennessee is a solid football team. They have a strong defense, weapons that can be explosive on offense and a dangerous return game.
SP+ — IU 24 – UT 35
FPI — IU 38 – UT 32
Sagarain (Adj) – IU 39 – UT 36
Going by Rivals’ recruiting class ratings, of Indiana’s 2019 opponents only Ohio State has more on the field talent than the Vols. Looking at Tennessee’s last five classes (including a red-shirt year) they have 6 5-star recruits, 54 4-star guys and 59 3-stars. The Hoosiers by comparison have no 5-stars recruits, 5 4-stars guys and 79 3-stars.
Tennessee is a very talented group with a big upside – at least on paper. Their fan-base would probably tell you they have underachieved relative to what they have - although they did win their final five games.
The Vols are in their second year under
Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt. So far Pruitt, known as a defensive guy, is 12-12 at UT. He was previously Defensive Coordinator at Florida State, Georgia and Alabama before taking the reigns in Knoxville.
Since Tennessee’s primary identity is their
defense we’ll start with that. SP+ rates their D as 21st in FBS (out of 130). The Vols’ pass defense ranks 16th in the country allowing only 191.3 yards per game. They allow only 21.7 points per game which ranks 29th in the country. Their pass efficiency defense also ranks 29th with a rating of 119.35. UT has intercepted 14 balls compared to Indiana’s 5, so Indiana’s
Junior Quarterback Peyton Ramsey will need to be extra careful with the ball.
PFF named Senior Safety
Nigel Warrior Second Team All-SEC. Warrior has 68 tackles, 4 interceptions and 7 pass break-ups in 2019.
PFF also named Senior Edge Defender
Darrell Taylor All-SEC Honorable Mention. Taylor has 40 tackles, 8 tackles for a loss, 7 sacks, 1 fumble forced and 1 fumble recovery on the year.
Offensively Tennessee has lacked explosiveness at times in 2019. They score only 24.3 points per game which ranks 97th in the country. They rank 77th in passing (220 ypg) and 87th in rushing (144.8 ypg). SP+ rates their overall offense as 75th.
Their Junior Quarterback
Jarrett Guarantano has had a good year but not great. He has completed 134 passes for 1,937 yards and 16 touchdowns. He only has 6 interceptions so that is a decent touchdown to INT ratio. He shouldn’t be a huge threat running the ball – but IU will still need to be disciplined and maintain gap integrity.
Tennessee has three backs with more than 400 yards rushing. Junior
Ty Chandler leads the way with 620 yards and 3 TDs.
The Vols’ biggest playmaking threat is their wide receiver duo of
Jauan Jennings and
Marquez Callaway. Jennings (Senior) has caught 57 balls for 942 yards and 8 TDs in 2019, good enough for PFF to name him Second Team All-SEC. Unfortunately for Tennessee Jennings will be
suspended for the first half of the Gator Bowl due to stepping on an opponent’s face during the Vanderbilt game.
Senior Marquez Callaway has added 29 catches for 616 yards and 6 TDs. Callaway averages over 21 yards a catch and is a threat to score every time he touches it. He is the Vols’ punt returner as well, averaging 10 yards per return including a 65 yarder to the house against South Carolina in October. Callaway has three career punt return touchdowns including an 82 yarder against Charlotte in 2018 and a 62 yard return against Tennessee Tech in 2016. PFF named Callaway All-SEC Honorable Mention Punt Returner in 2019.
On Special Teams Tennessee ranks 4th in the nation in both Punt Returns (16.5 yards per return) and kickoff return defense (16.00 yards per return). The Vols have 3 blocked kicks on the year, two of which resulted in touchdowns. Their Junior Kicker
Brent Cimaglia was named 2nd Team All-SEC by PFF. Cimaglia is a perfect 33-33 on PATs in 2019 and 20-24 on field goal attempts, including 2-2 from beyond 50 and a long of 53 yards. He seems to be pretty comparable to Indiana’s
Logan Justus.
Vols vs Hoosiers: The Match Up -- from Volquest
Tennessee (7-5, 5-3) returns to the postseason for the first time in three years this week against Indiana (8-4, 5-4) in Jacksonville, Fla. at the Taxslayer Bowl. The Vols will be looking to close the season on a six game win streak with a win. Let's dive into the match-ups for Thursday's contest.
VOLS' PASSING GAME vs. HOOSIERS' SECONDARY
TENNESSEE: Jarrett Guarantano’s renaissance over the second half of the year was one of the enduring storylines of the year. Similarly, Jauan Jennings (57 rec., 942 yards, 8 TDs) closed out his storied career in style. The point being that the Vols’ passing game turned into the backbone of the offense over the last part of the season. Toss in Marquez Callaway (21.8 ypc) and pretty much all of the most reliable weapons at Jim Chaney’s disposal look to be at quarterback and receiver. Guarantano didn’t start the season in the fashion that he or any Tennessee fan had hoped, but he bounced back and closed strong. In the Vols’ five game winning streak to close the year he passed for 1,026 yards with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. Callaway and Jennings, along with Josh Palmer, give Jim Chaney three big bodied guys to work with who can all make plays after the catch. Jennings’ ability to pick up yards after the catch stresses any defense and will certainly be a concern for Indiana. I like this match-up a great deal for the Vols.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers were decent though certainly not great against the pass this year in terms of total yardage per game given up. They were in the lower third of Big Ten, surrendering 212 yards per game and a pretty healthy 7.1 yard per attempt. The number that jumps out at you here is that the defense came up with a mere five interceptions while surrendering 20 touchdowns passes, the third highest total in the Big Ten. In nine Big Ten games the Hoosiers had a mere three interceptions, so they’re not making a lot of game changing plays in the back end. The one area they did excel at, somewhat ironically given some of the other numbers, was taking away high percentage throws. Indiana held opponents to just 55.9% completion percentage, the third lowest total in the Big Ten. Fifth year senior Andre Brown is one of the most experienced players on the roster with 34 career starts and leads this unit. The two safeties; Khalil Bryant and Bryant Fitzgerald, are probably the two best players in the back end. Bryant was second on the team with 53 tackles and had three double-digit tackle games. Fitzgerald was responsible for three of the Hoosiers’ five interceptions on the season. Again, I like this match-up for Tennessee.
EDGE: TENNESSEE
VOLS' GROUND GAME vs. HOOSIERS' FRONT SEVEN
TENNESSEE: The obvious question here is, did Tennessee find something in Eric Gray during his epic performance against Vanderbilt (246 yards), or was that simply a perfect storm of a young man having a career day against a bad defense? I’m not saying that Vandy didn’t have something to do with it, but I don’t think you can look at the second biggest rushing day in school history and just write it off to bad defense. Gray’s heroics aside, Tennessee hasn’t been a great rushing offense in 2019. The showed some flashes here and there but the 145 yards per game they averaged on the ground ranked them 12th in the SEC and their 4.1 ypc was 13th. Those numbers say a great deal about an offensive line that was not only littered with youth but also spent much of the season juggling through different combinations either as a result of injury or simply looking for something to click. One constant this season was the play of Trey Smith at left guard who overcame a great deal to play the best football of his career, earning 1st team All-SEC honors. With two true freshman tackles in the line-up, this unit could see more benefit than any other group from the extra bowl practices. One big thing to keep an eye on here is the health of center Brandon Kennedy who had a ‘clean up’ procedure done on his knee after the regular season finale. He and Smith were the only two contacts in an ever changing offensive front and he will be missed if he can’t go. Pruitt said this week that Kennedy would be a ‘game time’ decision.
INDIANA: This Hoosier front seven should be a manageable challenge for a Tennessee ground game that showed some flashes of putting things together. For the year Indiana gave up just 3.9 yards per carry but that number ballooned to 4.4 ypc against Big Ten opponents. The Hoosiers have a couple of quality players in senior end Allen Stallings (5.0 sacks) and junior defensive tackle Jerome Johnson (4.0 sacks, 6.5 TFLs) is another quality player on the line. Indiana had some ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ performances when it came to run defense. For instance they held Michigan to 87 yards, but that was part of a four game stretch late in the year when Maryland (173), Nebraska (220) and Penn State (192) all gashed them pretty good. This unit was a big reason why opponents converted just 31% of the time on 3rd down, maybe the most impressive defensive stat they own As always seems to be the case in SEC/Big Ten match-ups it will be interesting to see how Indiana’s speed at linebacker holds up against the Vols. Micah McFadden led the defense with 56 stops on the year including 9 TFLs.
EDGE: TENNESSEE
VOLS' SECONDARY vs. HOOSIERS' PASSING GAME
TENNESSEE: By some of the numbers Tennessee was one of the best pass defense teams in the SEC this season. By any estimate senior Nigel Warrior was one of the best defensive backs in the conference, if not the nation, earning All-SEC honors after finally realizing the vast potential many saw in him as a high school prospect. The Vols were fourth in the SEC in yards surrendered through the air (191.2), third in interceptions with 14 while surrendering just 14 touchdown passes on the season. Tennessee also got increasingly better as the year progressed in limiting big plays in the passing game and finished the year allowing opponents to average just 6.7 yards per passing attempt. Warrior has definitely been the leader in the secondary and he got progressively better as the year went on but Tennessee also got improved play as the season progressed from sophomore Bryce Thompson at cornerback, freshman Jaylen McCollough at safety and Shawn Shamburger at the nickel spot. Certainly the way the schedule was set up has something to do with this number, but Tennessee didn’t have an opponent throw for more than 180 yards in any of its last four games.
INDIANA: Junior Peyton Ramsey took over the quarterback job midway through the year, making six starts after one time Tennessee commitment Michael Penix was lost for the year with an injury. Ramsey was more than a competent back up and the passing game is what drives an Indiana offense that averaged 32.3 ppg game in 2019. It’s not exactly like Ramsey was inexperienced. He started all 12 games a year ago before losing his starting spot, and shared time with Penix early this year. When he took over full time he put up some big numbers, throwing for 2,227 yards and 13 TDs against 4 interceptions while completing 69% of his throws. There’s no doubt who his No. 1 target is. Speedy Whop Philyor (5-foot-11, 178) led Indiana with 1,001 yards and five TDs on 69 catches. He’s not a one-man show though. Six different Hoosiers caught at least 26 passes. Tight end Peyton Hendershot is a huge part of the passing game and someone the Vol linebackers will have to account for. He was second on the team with 555 yards on 46 rec. with four touchdowns. Receivers Ty Fryfogle (42 rec., 541 yards, 3 TDs) and Nick Westbrook (38 rec., 524 yards, 5 TDs) are far more than complimentary pieces to Philyor and both are bigger receivers, each in the 6-foot-3 range. Running back Stevie Scott (26 rec., 211 yards) is also someone Tennessee will have to account for in the passing game.
EDGE: INDIANA
VOLS' FRONT SEVEN vs. HOOSIERS' GROUND GAME
TENNESSEE: There were a lot of positive surprises around this football team in 2019, but for me none was bigger than seeing this coaching staff turn a what looked like a suspect front seven back in August into a more than serviceable SEC front as the year progressed. The two seniors who absolutely had to come through; Darrell Taylor and Daniel Bituli, did just that. Young guys who had to step up like freshman Henry To’o To’o, junior college transfer Darrell Middleton and redshirt freshman Greg Emerson did their part and by the end of the year Tennessee was a legitimate SEC defense, capable of making the kind of plays that either win games themselves or ensure victory, as they did on the road at Kentucky and Missouri. The Vols finished the year giving up 337 yards of total offense per game, and this unit was a big reason why. That number may not sound great, but it’s the lowest total for a Tennessee defense in a decade. Perhaps the most surprising attribute of this unit is how they suddenly morphed into one of the best pass rushing defenses in the league. Tennessee finished the year with 30 sacks, 5th in the SEC, with Taylor ranking fifth in the league with 7.0 sacks. That will be a key area to watch against an Indiana offensive line that gave up 23 sacks on the year, a number that doesn’t look as big when you consider they had 439 passing attempts.
INDIANA: The passing game gets most of the ink for Indiana, and rightly so, but the Hoosiers have competent running game behind sophomore Stevie Scott. His numbers were down a bit from when he cracked 1,000 yards as a freshman, but he missed one game and Indiana threw the ball more and he still put up 845 yards on 178 att. with 10 rushing TDs. As noted above, Scott is a versatile back who is a factor in the passing game as well. Indiana tries to spread the workload around a bit but Scott is by far their most productive back. Sampson James gained 250 yards on 70 attempts in a relief role. Ramsey isn’t afraid to pull it down and take off, but did so with varying degrees of success, picking up just 198 yards on 80 attempts. Indiana was almost as unsettled as Tennessee on the offensive front, going with five different starting combinations up front and using three different left tackles but finished the year second in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 443.6 yards per game.
EDGE: TENNESSEE
SPECIAL TEAMS
TENNESSEE: The Vols were sound in the kicking game all year long and many thought Brent Cimaglia should have gotten the nod for first-team All-SEC performer over Rodrigo Blankenship. He finished the year 20-of-24 and was an impressive 8-of-10 from outside 40 yards. Paxton Brooks won the full-time punting job midway through the season, averaging 42.7 yards per punt. Marquez Callaway (15.0 yards per punt return, 1 TD) is a dangerous man on punt returns. Tennessee never really popped a kickoff return this year, but outside of some struggles against Henry Ruggles at Alabama (who made a lot of people miss this year), the return units were strong. Tennessee also blocked two punts and a field goal this year.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers were fairly pedestrian in the return game this fall. Philyor averaged just 4.1 yards on punt return and the Hoosiers didn’t have a kickoff return of more than 39 yards in 34 attempts. Indiana does an excellent job of location punting with Hayden Whitehead (42.1 yards per punt), Only 10 of his 47 punts were returned this year. Justin Logan was just as accurate as Cimaglia this fall, connecting on 14-of-17 field goals, though he made just three outside of 40 yards, going 3-for-5 from that distance.
EDGE: TENNESSEE
ONE MAN'S FEARLESS PREDICTION
Tennessee may not have notched any monumental upsets this fall (though the Vols did win four SEC games as underdogs) but I really think that Indiana’s 8-4 record was padded quite a bit by some less than impressive wins. Their five Big Ten wins came against conference opponents that finished the year a combined 9-37 in Big Ten play. Their other three wins were over Ball State, Eastern Illinois and Connecticut and they needed overtime against a 4-8 Purdue team to avoid closing the season on a three-game losing streak.
I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but color me unimpressed.
I also don’t mean to suggest that Tennessee’s program is to the point where the Vols can just show up and beat a decent opponent without playing well.
What I do believe is that Tennessee is on a roll. This team gained confidence week-by-week over the last half of the season and winning this bowl game and continuing to build on that momentum means something to this group.
I think Tennessee’s big receivers make some big plays in the passing game. I think the Vols win the turnover battle (remember Indiana has just 5 picks on the year) and I think they do enough in the secondary and with their pass rush to slow down what is a legitimately nice Indiana passing game.
SEC speed almost always seems to show up in this mid-tier match-ups between these two conferences. It certainly has the last three times Tennessee went bowling; against Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa respectively. I’m guessing it does this week as well and Tennessee finishes the season at 8-5 and on a clear upward trajectory.
TENNESSEE 31, INDIANA 20
