I Just Wanna Throw This Out There...

#1
Lord Vader

Lord Vader

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#1
Things are looking bad and it appears most people are thinking it is going to be impossible to win. I'm not one of those. I'm trying to find positives going into this matchup...

Everybody keeps talking about how terrible the UCLA loss was. The way they make it sound, the Vols were killed last week. But in reality, UT was 1 yard, ONE YARD, away from winning that game. Had we gained that 1 yard, things on these boards would be alot different...

Last year coming into this game, UT was coming off a far more painful loss to UCLA, and the Gators coming in after rolling through the Vols the year before. But what happened? Yea, the Vols lost 30-6, but look a little closer. In the 1st half, UT was inside the Gator 5 yard line TWICE and came a with ZERO points. The Gators took a 13-0 lead into the half. That doesn't look like utter domination to me. Sure UF pulled away in the 2nd half, but the Vols were demoralized after coming away with nothing after being so close in the 1st half imo...

The Gators only scored 3 TDs last year. One of them was a pass to Harvin and one of them was on a punt return by James. Kiffin has made it fairly obvious that he is not going to kick to James. Harvin's gone and James isn't going to see the ball, so that is going to be 2 TDs that won't be scored on us this year. I know other people are going to touch the ball, but the Gators will not have a playmaker on the field as good as Harvin this year...

People keep predicting that UF is gonna win by 50. That is NOT going to happen unless we turn the ball over alot. UT has the #1 defense in the country right now, the best defender in the country, one of the top 10 LBs in the country, a future 1st rounder with Walker, and one of the greatest defensive minds in football history. There is absolutely no way that UF can put up 50 on this defense...

And at some point all this talk and predictions from Gainesville and in the media starts to feed the underdog and leads to overconfidence and carelessness by the favorite...

UF- 34
UT- 18
 
#3
#3
Lord Vader said:
Things are looking bad and it appears most people are thinking it is going to be impossible to win. I'm not one of those. I'm trying to find positives going into this matchup...

Everybody keeps talking about how terrible the UCLA loss was. The way they make it sound, the Vols were killed last week. But in reality, UT was 1 yard, ONE YARD, away from winning that game. Had we gained that 1 yard, things on these boards would be alot different...

Last year coming into this game, UT was coming off a far more painful loss to UCLA, and the Gators coming in after rolling through the Vols the year before. But what happened? Yea, the Vols lost 30-6, but look a little closer. In the 1st half, UT was inside the Gator 5 yard line TWICE and came a with ZERO points. The Gators took a 13-0 lead into the half. That doesn't look like utter domination to me. Sure UF pulled away in the 2nd half, but the Vols were demoralized after coming away with nothing after being so close in the 1st half imo...

The Gators only scored 3 TDs last year. One of them was a pass to Harvin and one of them was on a punt return by James. Kiffin has made it fairly obvious that he is not going to kick to James. Harvin's gone and James isn't going to see the ball, so that is going to be 2 TDs that won't be scored on us this year. I know other people are going to touch the ball, but the Gators will not have a playmaker on the field as good as Harvin this year...

People keep predicting that UF is gonna win by 50. That is NOT going to happen unless we turn the ball over alot. UT has the #1 defense in the country right now, the best defender in the country, one of the top 10 LBs in the country, a future 1st rounder with Walker, and one of the greatest defensive minds in football history. There is absolutely no way that UF can put up 50 on this defense...

And at some point all this talk and predictions from Gainesville and in the media starts to feed the underdog and leads to overconfidence and carelessness by the favorite...

UF- 34
UT- 18
Click to expand...

I agree that UF will not hang 50 on us. I just hope our offense can produce some good drives and not look like last week.
 
#4
#4
So what's the most we can lose by and it still really be a victory for us?

I think we have a much improved run game from last year, and I really expect us to run the ball better this week than last week. We are going to have too!

We are obviously also going to have to play a better passing game. If they are bringing the heat every play, throw some quick screen passes. I really didn't see as many screens as I hoped to last weekend.

I really think we have a chance to win this game, but if we don't, I think that if we keep it within 14-20 points people are still going to be shocked.
 
#5
#5
Im really concerned over the health of our o-line I think that will be the difference between keeping it close or getting the doors blown off.
 
#7
#7
Hey LV. I liked everything until I saw your score prediction at the bottom. Not that I'm disagreeing with it, but after you did such a great job of building everything up it kinda' hit me like a slap in the face that I wasn't expecting!
 
#9
#9
I was re-watching the UT-UF game from last year a couple days ago and noticed the same thing. We moved the ball on them in the first half, but costly turnovers are what killed us.

Our Defense will be better than last year, and our Offense is (at least!) slightly better. If we come out and play some smash-mouth football and put the first points on the board it may get very interesting. Our D has to come out and hit somebody in the mouth (figuratively, of course--no broken jaws or Blount sucker punches), and our O has to establish a steady diet of tough runs and short, quick passes.

I'm going to be optimistic and say this will be a lower scoring game...and the Vols take the upset by 4. Yes, 4. UT-21, UF-17. And, no, I don't have Orange Kool-Aid, but I DO have some Orange Crush Soda, lol.
 
#10
#10
Good post. BTW, just saw that this game is the most interesting game of the week for the entire country. Everyone will be watching this game. We need to show up and be competitive.
 
#11
#11
It was 17-0 in the 1st quarter last year, LV. I remember it like it was yesterday.
 
#12
#12
IBlvNTmWrk said:
Hey LV. I liked everything until I saw your score prediction at the bottom. Not that I'm disagreeing with it, but after you did such a great job of building everything up it kinda' hit me like a slap in the face that I wasn't expecting!
Click to expand...

lol, I'm thinking we keep the in the 6-10 point range until late in the 4th. Then the Gators score a late TD, making it look worse than what it really was...
 
#13
#13
Florida will stack the line, making crompton have to throw the ball and we know with an average sec defense he will be picked once or twice and florida's D is lil better than average, right?
Our D will keep it close but like last year, they'll just run out of gas then meyer will pour it on.
I'm sorry but the woodshed is where we're going and it happens to be located in the swamp.
All I hope is we come out of it w/o any injuries.

First half UT 13 UF 21
End of 3rd UT 16 UF 38
End of 4th UT 16 UF 59

I hope Stephens has a clue of whats in the play book, we'll need him
 
#14
#14
We've seen this argument a million times. The counter argument is that UF scored on every meaningful possession of that game except 1.

In fact, UF could have made it 33-6, or thrown the ball and made it 37-6, but instead, on 4th and 9 at the UT 12 yard line, UF ran a draw play. Giving up points basically.

Last year was never close. It was 17-0 before Tennessee even knew what to do with themselves, and after the goalline fumble, it was 20-0 after UF drove all the way down the field and got a FG.

UF did all of this with a team that had struggled mightily on offense for the first half of the season.

Fast forward to this year. Percy Harvin is gone, but so what? UF has proven time and again that they can win without Harvin, and that the offense is far more diverse when he isn't in the game.

On defense, the defensive line was a huge ??? going into 2008, but they played just well enough for UF to win everything. Now, in 2009, the defensive line might be a strength of the defense with the myriad of pass rushers and run stoppers. Last year, UF would be horrified at the prospect of Lawrence Marsh missing a game. But this year, the depth makes it not a big deal.

Put all of this together and add in the fact that 1) Kiffin accused Meyer of cheating, 2) The game is in the swamp, 3) Tennessee has the same bad QB they had in 2008, 4) the Utenn offensive line is patchwork at best, and 5) UF has the best RB's that they've had in many years combined with a big strong offensive line... and it just doesn't = a close game.

The only way this game is close is if UF turns the ball over. Otherwise, I say something like 33 - 9.
 
#15
#15
Lord Vader said:
lol, I'm thinking we keep the in the 6-10 point range until late in the 4th. Then the Gators score a late TD, making it look worse than what it really was...
Click to expand...

UF started to play conservative after the first QTR. Hell, it took until the Arky game to really open up the offense.
 
#16
#16
SGMVols said:
It was 17-0 in the 1st quarter last year, LV. I remember it like it was yesterday.
Click to expand...

haha, I got in a hurry I think. Hernandez had a TD and James ran the punt back in the first half. But still, UT had their chances to be right in that game...
 
#17
#17
TN has to employ a similar gameplan to this game that Charlie Weis did against USC (the Bush-push game). Hold the ball for as long as humanly possible, and play inspired defense. I am looking forward to what Monte can come up with on D. From reading a few things online it seems that he may dust off his old gameplans that he used against Vick back when he was at Tampa. Tampa almost always shut him down,and they are going to treat Tebow the same way. This will put a lot of pressure on UF's receivers to make plays. TN's corners will be on an island in the biggest sense of the word. If UF's receivers make plays this will get out of hand. If they don't, TN has a shot.

I do hope that Kiffin is being honest with the whole team this week about what to expect out of the offense. I hope he is telling the D "look, you're going to be out there a lot. We will try and hold the ball for as long as we can, take a few shots, but I can't promise much. Do not get discouraged. This game lies in your hands. If you make some plays we have a real shot here."....Also, he should do the same thing to them that Gruden did to Monte and the Tampa D when he arrived there-"you're such a great defense, score. Score some freaking points." Well, Eric-score. You want some Heisman votes, here's your shot. Chris Walker-all we have heard all summer is about how unblockable you are. Be unblockable for 60 minutes. Janzen-just run around and make some plays-be a wild man. McCoy, same goes for you. Rogan-bring the same intensity to this game that you brought last week on your safety. Reviez-try as hard as you want, the fat man is gone.

Listen-this game may get out of hand early, but if they go into the half, tied, or within 3 this could get interesting. It's college football. You never know what can happen.
 
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#18
#18
Lord Vader said:
lol, I'm thinking we keep the in the 6-10 point range until late in the 4th. Then the Gators score a late TD, making it look worse than what it really was...
Click to expand...

I hope you're right. I'm going to be watching the game with some Gator friends of mine, so I hope we keep it close.
 
#21
#21
Here's my unbiased prediction on the outcome of this game depending on which direction you go with defensive schemes and have zero giveaways when your offense is on the field:

1. Zone and cover 2 - UF big plays are minimized and you get a couple of turnovers. Score UF 24 UT 7.

2. Lots of blitzing and man coverage - UF gets gets numerous 15+ yard plays and 3 or 4 long TDs. Score UF 45 UT 10.

The best thing you could hope for is buckets of rain during the game. That would effectively act as an extra defender against the deep ball and put the ball on the ground several times for turnover possiblities. Of course, that works both ways. UF will certainly stack the box and stuff your run if it's raining.
 
#22
#22
AFL2008 said:
Put all of this together and add in the fact that 1) Kiffin accused Meyer of cheating, 2) The game is in the swamp, 3) Tennessee has the same bad QB they had in 2008, 4) the Utenn offensive line is patchwork at best, and 5) UF has the best RB's that they've had in many years combined with a big strong offensive line... and it just doesn't = a close game.
Click to expand...

1) You don't think the Vols are going to be motivated at all after all this crap they have been listening to for the past week? 2) that is the biggest advantage for the Gators. 3) the UT QB was 18-28 with only one INT in the game against that same UF defense last year. 4) agreed. 5) UT has the best RBs they've had since Travis Stephens was running all over the Gators in the Swamp combined with Kiffin trying to chew the clock every chance he gets= a fairly close game...
 
#23
#23
Scheming Tebow like Vick doesn't seem smart. They aren't the same player. Vick was more of a slasher when he made plays with his feet. Tebow just plows into the LOS. He doesn't try to make people miss in space or get outside. Tebow is a much better passer than Vick was. He might be a better passer than Vick in Vick's prime.

You don't need contain guys when playing Tebow. He isn't outrunning anyone.
 
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