I find the One and Done Strategy to be a FAIL

#1

Wise-Vol

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#1
It almost worked for Calipari at Memphis, but even if that team had legally gotten to the Championship game, Kansas -- with seasoned players who had been in the system -- denied the One and Done approach.

Now, at Kentucky, Calipari has doubled-down on the approach. At Memphis, his one and done star was Rose. Now, he has two of them to go along with Patterson, Miller, and some two and doners like Bledsoe.

And, I may be wrong, but I don't think Kentucky is even going to make the Final Four this year unless they get the kind of Rupperee help in the Tourney that they have gotten in the SEC.

And, after this year, Kentucky will be looking at Miller, Bledsoe (if he doesn't go pro) and Liggins as the leaders of its team. Don't get me wrong, I like all of those players' games, especially Bledsoe and Miller, but the drop-off in talent and depth will be material. The additional problem with One and Doners is that they spread that virus to their teammates -- guys who have no business leaving early. Bledsoe may be one of those guys on this team. It seems to me that Calipari would have been wise to have redshirted either Ramon Harris or Perry Stevenson, or both.

While Kentucky will add some signees to their 2010 class, right now their top guy is a top 30 player, but not top 25 -- the kind of guy who could come in and be a stud freshman or a guy who might need a year or two. So it appears that Bledsoe, Miller, Orton, Dodson, and Liggins will be KY's top 5 players next season.

Comparatively, the Vols will have Hopson, a guy who would be in the NBA now if he had lived up to the expectations of many fans who tear him down. Instead, he'll be wearing Orange next season, which means we will be returning our top scorer. I bet Florida and KY wishes he had been a One and Done instead of playing in TBA against them this year. We'll also have Tatum, Goins, Hall, McBee, and Williams, all of whom have started for us at some point this season. Add to that perhaps the top player in the country entering college in Tobias Harris, a kid who could be a One and Done but doesn't seem like he is interested in following that path. And 2 other top 60 players in the 2010 class along with transfer Maymon, who was a top 50 player last season. If we can get Cothron or Abraham, that's another top 40 or even top 25 player.

Vanderbilt will return its entire team except for Beal. Likewise, Florida will return all but Werner.

Now, maybe Kentucky adds Brandon Knight, Josh Selby, CJ Leslie, and Terrence Jones to its class. I doubt they get all of them, but even if they do, there isn't a DeMarcus Cousins in that group, nor anyone to replace Patterson. Knight may be as good as Wall, but you still have a bunch of freshmen coming in to lead you, unlike UT, which will have 5 guys in the two-deep who have played significant minutes in the SEC. Vandy and Florida will have even more.

I think KY may eventually have a fan base that must get used to a lot of hype and too few late March victories. When all is said and done, I'll take UT's, Vandy's or Florida's top 5 in 2010-11 over the group that KY puts on the floor, even if Brandon Knight and CJ Leslie are two of them.
 
#2
#2
Orton will immediately be the best big man in the conference. Miller is going to be strong and Liggins is finally living up to his promise. Bledsoe will be the best PG in the conference, at least initially.

They won't be as good as they are now, but they'll be the preseason pick.

See, we can't assume our next group of freshmen are going to outperform this group that KY is trying to win with today.

We are going to be good, but young and absolutely leaderless. I'm not sure we can pass them.
Posted via VolNation MobileScratch Orton as the best isn't right. UGA has that in Thompkins.
 
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#3
#3
I think patterson comes back unless they make a Final four. He was projected as a first round pick after both his freshman and sophomore years. He seems like the tyler hansbrough type. Of course the pressure of just being first round and lottery are totally different. maybe being top 11 brings him out.
 
#4
#4
I think patterson comes back unless they make a Final four. He was projected as a first round pick after both his freshman and sophomore years. He seems like the tyler hansbrough type. Of course the pressure of just being first round and lottery are totally different. maybe being top 11 brings him out.
Nah. Patterson is graduating in 3 years so it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he will leave (even here in Lexington).
 
#6
#6
Orton will immediately be the best big man in the conference. Miller is going to be strong and Liggins is finally living up to his promise. Bledsoe will be the best PG in the conference, at least initially.

They won't be as good as they are now, but they'll be the preseason pick.

See, we can't assume our next group of freshmen are going to outperform this group that KY is trying to win with today.

We are going to be good, but young and absolutely leaderless. I'm not sure we can pass them.
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I think Orton is going to be a bust.
 
#8
#8
I stopped reading after you attempted to make a mountain of difference between a #24 rated player and a #27 rated player.
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#9
#9
Why?
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He just doesn't seem very coordinated. I think he is going to be the type of big man that battles foul problems all the time. He averaged almost 3 fouls a game in limited minutes this year. Also he is a terrible free throw shooter. Now I know that doesnt always mean alot but it certainly doesnt help his cause.
 
#10
#10
Orton is already a solid defender, but he doesn't have anywhere near the offense of Cousins.
 
#11
#11
Orton will benefit by being in college for 2 years (maybe 3) and working on developing his game and his body. Cousins is already a stud, but could use some more seasoning, especially with his short temper. With the extra time in college, Orton may be a more NBA-ready big man than Cousins when he eventually comes out.
Patterson won't be back, he is a little undersized for a 4 at the next level, but will make it.
Wall, gone.
Bledsoe should be back, and may eventually be a better college player than Wall is right now depending how long he stays.
Miller is starting to play better, and will be asked to step up next year, and I believe will do so very well.
Dodson will be a good player.
Liggins is an excellent defensive player with a fairly high offensive ceiling.
Daniel Hood can shoot the 3, and if he adjusts to the speed of the college game and his ability to play D in the SEC improve, he could come seemingly out of nowhere to be a major threat.
With Coach Cal at UK, they will always lose a lot to 1 or 2 and done, but they will constantly have great classes coming in with a good mix of stars and role players. Don't count them out after this season yet.....
 
#17
#17
...it did work for 'Melo and Boeheim at Syracuse.

I don't like the rule one bit, but it works for a team if the player(s) is good enough.
Roy Williams doesn't win his first title without Marvin Williams.
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#18
#18
Same good defender that fouled out against Rider?
That was very early in the year and Orton has greatly improved as the year has went on (as these freshmen tend to do). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that is the only game he's fouled out? He also has around 40 blocks playing behind Cousins. Don't get wrong, I'm not saying he'll be Greg Oden on the defensive end, but I think he will be more than serviceable.

I don't look for him to ever be a big time scorer but he could easily put up 10 ppg in a starting role.
 
#19
#19
It just makes no sense to me to arge that taking the best players is a potential fail.
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#20
#20
There's apparently some recurring trend that teams with a freshman as one of their main 5 starters dont end up winning the final game
 
#21
#21
There's apparently some recurring trend that teams with a freshman as one of their main 5 starters dont end up winning the final game
Not really. Early departures weeding out all dominant upperclassmen means dominant underclassmen will win more and more.
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#22
#22
Not really.
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well it's not something i've looked into; i'm just repeating analysts went on about at one point last year and ESPN had some big article write up on

something about teams that start a true freshman for heavy time in the tourney either dont do as well typically or dont do as well in winning the final 4/ final game

this was all a year ago though
 
#24
#24
That was very early in the year and Orton has greatly improved as the year has went on (as these freshmen tend to do). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that is the only game he's fouled out? He also has around 40 blocks playing behind Cousins. Don't get wrong, I'm not saying he'll be Greg Oden on the defensive end, but I think he will be more than serviceable.

I don't look for him to ever be a big time scorer but he could easily put up 10 ppg in a starting role.

I will correct you, he actually fouled out of 3 more games. One which was less than a month ago where he only played 7 minutes. I just don't see the guy dominatint the SEC.
 
#25
#25
well it's not something i've looked into; i'm just repeating analysts went on about at one point last year and ESPN had some big article write up on

something about teams that start a true freshman for heavy time in the tourney either dont do as well typically or dont do as well in winning the final 4/ final game

this was all a year ago though
But they're referencing a history where leaving as a junior was even rare until recently.
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