I Cant See More Than 5 Wins

#1
rexvol

rexvol

The Minister of Defense
Joined
Apr 29, 2006
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#1
We lost the entire OL. We will start and QB that not just new to the SEC, but new to our system and a new and unproven RB. We lost our best DL in Big Dan, our best LB is coming off major knee surgery and Eric Berry is in KC. We barely won 7 games last year and some of you are predicting 8 wins this year. Also factor is a whole new coaching staff and Im praying we win 5. We beat Martin, UAB, Vandy, Memphis, and maybe one upset (Ole Miss). That's about it.
 
#2
#2
we can easily win 7, ut martin, uab, vandy, memphis, kentucky, why cant we beat ole miss they lost their qb and there allstar rb, and i think we beat oregon i mean our defensive coordinator took a much inferior team and shut down oregons offense, that bein said i wouldnt be shocked if we couldnt pull an upset on florida it is at home they are starting a new qb and our d coord knows the spread well....
 
#3
#3
Ole Miss would be an upset? Did you see how much they lost from last year?

People said the same thing about Ole Miss several years ago when they won 10 games.
 
#4
#4
i think Rex has a very valid point. no way we beat Oregon. Wilcox had an established defense when he beat them last year. this year, he is installing his defense. big difference.
 
#5
#5
Well remember Oregon is starting a new qb, and coming in and playing at knoxville isnt easy for anybody much less a brand new qb.
 
#6
#6
VOLFREAK11 said:
we can easily win 7, ut martin, uab, vandy, memphis, kentucky, why cant we beat ole miss they lost their qb and there allstar rb, and i think we beat oregon i mean our defensive coordinator took a much inferior team and shut down oregons offense, that bein said i wouldnt be shocked if we couldnt pull an upset on florida it is at home they are starting a new qb and our d coord knows the spread well....
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i'm going to leave the florida stuff alone.

someone please explain to me where the disrespect for oregon comes from.

tennessee has lost to wyoming and ucla the last two seasons at home and some people think oregon is a pushover.

oregon will be a ranked opponent by season's end.

when was the last time tennessee beat someone who finished the season ranked?
 
#7
#7
We should have beaten UCLA last year. I think 6 wins (maybe 7) is very reachable. Still have very good RBs. Better at WR, LB (when all are healthy), and should be much better on Special teams. If we can get some average QB play we will be alright.
 
#9
#9
99gator said:
i'm going to leave the florida stuff alone.

someone please explain to me where the disrespect for oregon comes from.

tennessee has lost to wyoming and ucla the last two seasons at home and some people think oregon is a pushover.

oregon will be a ranked opponent by season's end.

when was the last time tennessee beat someone who finished the season ranked?
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Stupidity.
 
#10
#10
orange parmejohn said:
i think Rex has a very valid point. no way we beat Oregon. Wilcox had an established defense when he beat them last year. this year, he is installing his defense. big difference.
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People said the same thing about TN when we went to UCLA a couple of years ago and everybody said we had no chance against Cal a few years ago. When teams have to travel across the country you never can tell and on top of that they will be brining in a new QB to face a pretty good defense. Wilcox will have more to work with at UT than at Boise State.
 
#11
#11
Wilcox doesn't make the defense complicated to learn. Monty's has more reads. As long as the DTs don't get hurt we will be fine on D. The offense takes a lot more time to execute correctly.
 
#12
#12
westtnvol said:
People said the same thing about TN when we went to UCLA a couple of years ago and everybody said we had no chance against Cal a few years ago. When teams have to travel across the country you never can tell and on top of that they will be brining in a new QB to face a pretty good defense. Wilcox will have more to work with at UT than at Boise State.
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Did they, though?
 
#14
#14
rexvol said:
We lost the entire OL. We will start and QB that not just new to the SEC, but new to our system and a new and unproven RB. We lost our best DL in Big Dan, our best LB is coming off major knee surgery and Eric Berry is in KC. We barely won 7 games last year and some of you are predicting 8 wins this year. Also factor is a whole new coaching staff and Im praying we win 5. We beat Martin, UAB, Vandy, Memphis, and maybe one upset (Ole Miss). That's about it.
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We had alot of these same problems at the beginning of last year. We started 2 walk on's and a freshman tackle new to his position. Our Qb was pitiful the year prior as well as spring ball. Our starting RB's durability was a big question mark and everyone said we would be lucky to win 5 games. We were 1 yard away from beating UCLA, a blocked field goal away from beating Bama, and if lincon hadn't missed a FG aginst Auburn we could have forced overtime. We could have easily been 10-2 or 9-3 last year.

I honestly think we will be ok this year. Our Defense will be very good and deep in the secondary. Our line backers will be deep due to last years injuries forcing us to play 3rd and 4th stringers. Our defensive line will be good but we are not deep at tackle. We will be ok at defensive end with 2 talanted freshman seeing playing time.

Our offense struggled in the Orange and White game but that was due to our already thin line being cut in half to make 2 squads. I also wander if Simms was that bad or the defense is that good? Bray looked pretty good and looked like he made some good descisions. Poole will be fun to watch this year dragging tacklers down the field refusing to go down and Oku will provide a nice change of speed.

Every game on the schedule is winnable. Will we win them all? No, but an awful lot of last years SEC talant has moved on to the NFL. We arent the only team that has question marks on their roster.

This year
 
#15
#15
Railroad Vol said:
We had alot of these same problems at the beginning of last year. We started 2 walk on's and a freshman tackle new to his position. Our Qb was pitiful the year prior as well as spring ball. Our starting RB's durability was a big question mark and everyone said we would be lucky to win 5 games. We were 1 yard away from beating UCLA, a blocked field goal away from beating Bama, and if lincon hadn't missed a FG aginst Auburn we could have forced overtime. We could have easily been 10-2 or 9-3 last year.

I honestly think we will be ok this year. Our Defense will be very good and deep in the secondary. Our line backers will be deep due to last years injuries forcing us to play 3rd and 4th stringers. Our defensive line will be good but we are not deep at tackle. We will be ok at defensive end with 2 talanted freshman seeing playing time.

Our offense struggled in the Orange and White game but that was due to our already thin line being cut in half to make 2 squads. I also wander if Simms was that bad or the defense is that good? Bray looked pretty good and looked like he made some good descisions. Poole will be fun to watch this year dragging tacklers down the field refusing to go down and Oku will provide a nice change of speed.

Every game on the schedule is winnable. Will we win them all? No, but an awful lot of last years SEC talant has moved on to the NFL. We arent the only team that has question marks on their roster.

This year
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I agree and you are going to get ripped apart for posting positve information, people around here only want to say negative things. Nice post!
 
#16
#16
rexvol said:
We lost the entire OL. We will start and QB that not just new to the SEC, but new to our system and a new and unproven RB. We lost our best DL in Big Dan, our best LB is coming off major knee surgery and Eric Berry is in KC. We barely won 7 games last year and some of you are predicting 8 wins this year. Also factor is a whole new coaching staff and Im praying we win 5. We beat Martin, UAB, Vandy, Memphis, and maybe one upset (Ole Miss). That's about it.
Click to expand...

How can you not put KY down for a win, we have beat them 25 times and the game is at K-town this year.
 
#17
#17
rexvol said:
We lost the entire OL. We will start and QB that not just new to the SEC, but new to our system and a new and unproven RB. We lost our best DL in Big Dan, our best LB is coming off major knee surgery and Eric Berry is in KC. We barely won 7 games last year and some of you are predicting 8 wins this year. Also factor is a whole new coaching staff and Im praying we win 5. We beat Martin, UAB, Vandy, Memphis, and maybe one upset (Ole Miss). That's about it.
Click to expand...

You must also be under the impression that Dooley is an inferior coach to Kiffin?

Oh, and we don't have a "whole" new coaching staff.
 
#18
#18
Here's what most people fail to consider when prognosticating a W-L record for any season: schedule FLOW. Not many would argue that it's at least likely that UT loses to FLA, Oregon, UGA, Bama, and LSU. All have markedly more talent than the Vols, and the weakest two of these 5 have UT at home.

If UT finds themselves 2-5 following a Bama thrashing in Neyland, heading to Columbia, the likelihood of beating USC is very low. Go into November at 2-6, 0-6....the odds of doing any better than .500 vs. OM, Memphis, Vandy, and MSU are very slim.

I agree with the OP. 5 wins is emerging as the realistic O/U when you consider the flow of this schedule. It will be painful to watch, so prepare yourselves.
 
#19
#19
IMHO: we could win 7 games - if we stay healthy.

Our defense should still be one of the top units in the SEC, possibly better than last year. Reasoning? Our secondary, even with the loss of Berry, should be better overall than a year ago, and with our LB's not injured, we have arguably one of the best unit in the SEC. As for D-Line, while we did lose Big Dan (which really hurts), if Smith can do half the coaching job he did in the NFL, they'll be OK against the lesser teams.

Key (as we all know) is the offense: if the O-line can just slow down the better D's, and Simms/Bray can keep defenses honest and let our run game move the chains, we can survive.

My two-cents opinion:

UT- Martin: 100% W (because it's UT-Martin...)
Oregon: 60% W (as mentioned- our DC has beat them with less talent, and now no Masoli, & it's a night game in Neyland)
Florida: 85% L (they're just too deep...)
UAB: 100% W (because it's UAB...)
LSU: 80% L (LSU is good, and in Death Valley...)
GA: 50% W/L (Even in Athens, I don't believe all the 'Dog hype...)
Bama: 85% L (They are that much better right now...)
USCjr: 60% L (they should be good enough to beat us in Columbia...)
Memphis: 100% W (Seriously, any doubt?)
Ole Miss: 50% W/L (No McCluster = even game...)
Vandy: 100% W (because they are that bad...)
KY: 75% W (because lack of depth alwayskills them at the end of the year...)

That's comes to:
4 definite W's (UT-Martin, UAB, Memphis, Vandy)
2 good chance W's (Oregon, KY)
2 even-shot W's (UGA, Ole Miss)

With only FL, LSU, Bama as very likely losses, and USCjr as a good-chance loss, we should be in every other game.

Along with most other teams in the SEC, injuries and depth will decide this season. I really feel 6 wins are likely, 7-8 are possible with some breaks.

I don't believe I'll throw in the towel just yet.

:good!:
 
#21
#21
I can't remember ever losing to UK. I'm sorry it won't happen. The sky really isn't falling. We still have talent over there. The depth isn't there and it would be nice to have a little more experience in some places.
 
#24
#24
You can't get caught up in trying to predict how many games we will win. It is almost impossible anyway and we don't know what is going to happen. It would be safe to say that Coach Dooley doesn't do this. I would hope he is concentrating on our football team and not how many games he thinks we can win this year.
 
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