I cannot believe this!

#1
Capt Straight

Capt Straight

Give Him 6!
Joined
Jun 29, 2009
Messages
1,204
Likes
1,929
#1
Just because Kentucky barely beat a second rate team in Georgia, the odds makers have us only a 2.5-3 point favorite. We own Kentucky and that beer barrel if it is still around!
 
#2
#2
The odds makers are not trying to predict the score. They are just trying to set lines so the betting action comes in evenly on both sides. The spread is more of a prediction of betting behavior by the public and the actual bets coming in, than what the outcome will be.
 
#3
#3
Sounds about right, playing at UK, UT's mediocre D against UK's mediocre O. UT's above average O against UK's above average D. A even game to the unbiased eye.
 
#4
#4
iceman9 said:
Sounds about right, playing at UK, UT's mediocre D against UK's mediocre O. UT's above average O against UK's above average D. A even game to the unbiased eye.
Click to expand...

I think this defense just got a shot in the arm after JJ's return. Be ready for the pain Wildcats, see my avatar, that's you. Vols Biotch
 
#5
#5
More on this:

"Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig. "​

HowStuffWorks "How Sports Betting Works"
 
#6
#6
Capt Straight said:
Just because Kentucky barely beat a second rate team in Georgia, the odds makers have us only a 2.5-3 point favorite. We own Kentucky and that beer barrel if it is still around!
Click to expand...

What's so bad about it? TBH, I'm surprised UK isn't slightly favored.
 
#7
#7
Check out this site and the details on the game. Some very good info. At the moment, 54% of the line $$ is on the Vols. The line has dropped from an opening of -3.5 to as little as -2.5. (which says the line is actually going the "wrong way" slightly) Click on the stats icon there as well to see some interesting info and trends. Hope this helps.

BTW...the"wrong way" basically means that if the line is moving towards the dog while the money is on the favorite, it's moving the wrong way. Vegas wants to encourage people to continue to put money on the favorite, which is a little fishy. Therefore, my assumption would be that Vegas thinks the dog has a good chance of covering.
 
Last edited:
#10
#10
volfromfla56 said:
I think this defense just got a shot in the arm after JJ's return. Be ready for the pain Wildcats, see my avatar, that's you. Vols Biotch
Click to expand...

I agree to a point, we need run support on edge with our LB's(which has been a problem all year). UK does not have down field passing game, they want to get on the edge as much as possible, whether out of spread formations or the screen game. JJ will help in some of that, but you need strong LB play, and that simply has not been their all year, even before the injuries crippled this team. This is a between the hash defense, I fear Locke alot more than Cobb.
 
#12
#12
By the way, I don't think it's "just because they barely beat a second rate team in Georgia." I think it's because they won at Georgia, at Auburn, they have a better record than us, and we are playing them in Lexington at night.
 
#14
#14
Panthro said:
By the way, I don't think it's "just because they barely beat a second rate team in Georgia." I think it's because they won at Georgia, at Auburn, they have a better record than us, and we are playing them in Lexington at night.
Click to expand...


I'm curious, when was the last time UT played UK at night?? For years and years all I can remember are those cold dreary November Saturday afternoons.
 
#16
#16
All that spread means is that national perception is that we're about equal... (giving Kentucky the 3 for home field). And given Kentucky is 7-4 and we're coming off the worst season in program history, that line shouldn't be a surprise.
 
#17
#17
Upon seeing the spread, Lane Kiffin was outraged.

Crompton_Falls.gif
 
#23
#23
Capt Straight said:
Just because Kentucky barely beat a second rate team in Georgia, the odds makers have us only a 2.5-3 point favorite. We own Kentucky and that beer barrel if it is still around!
Click to expand...

Don't those silly bettors understand the effect that games played in the past will have on Saturday's outcome?

Of course, another way to look at it is that if they have it so wrong, you should make a killing once you lay a couple of weekly paychecks on Vols and the points.
 
#24
#24
Rule #1 of betting: Never bet emotionally. Meaning, don't bet on anyone simply because it's "your team" and you "know" they're going to win.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top