How will the Sausage (Football Team) be made in the future?

[Dadof2Vols]

First, I want to say I am more of a strategist and enjoying understanding where things are going instead of worrying about current execution because I believe you are successful by figuring out where things are going before others do. Hence why I am posting this for your thoughts.

Now that UT has signed Nico everyone from players, fans and coaches are assuming that Tennessee signed him with the benefit of an $8.35 million NIL deal. This has changed college football forever. We must remember though that this game was started by SCOTUS and the first play of the game was by Saban himself and upped by the Texas QB transfer NIL and lineman payment announcements. With all of that said the question is how the sausage gets made moving forward.

Here are a few questions I have in my mind:

Portal

• Depending on how the contract reads, A player may not be as quick to enter the portal if he cannot sign NIL at his new school(co-op) because of the NIL at his old school.
• Of course, I am assuming the Co-op and players may at some time feel the contract is not working out for both and will allow the contract to be cancelled so that roster spots can be opened up and kids can leave

PWO

• Is there any reason for a kid to sign a LOI anymore if he is signed to NIL contract? Why not just PWO?
• Do the scholarship numbers even mean anything anymore? Why not 100 NIL PWO(s)?
• Is this why UT had so many PWO(s) this year?

Players already on roster

• How do you convince a kid like Tayven Jackson to stay if the other QB is signed to 8 mil? Can you talk him into staying or do you have to sign him to an NIL? What will it take to sign a QB in 2024 to sit the bench for maybe 2 years?
• Are the Co-Ops going to step up and give some cash to players already on the roster to keep them from transferring?

Future Recruits – This is where it gets interesting

• If everyone in the world assumes that Nico got 8.35 mil, how much do you think Kasper/Tate think they should get?
• How much do you think OL/DL think they should get; the bar was set high for a QB so how will that translate to other positions?

Team General Manager – Spyre has $30 mil a year for all Vol Sports let’s say 15 mil is for football, how does that get spent?

• Are there smoke signals or coded messages being traded between coaching staff and 1951 or does the NCAA not care anymore about rules kind of like the basketball referees in NCAA don’t care about what the basketball rulebook says.
• Who is deciding to spend x% of the 15 football mil for offense vs defense? Of the maybe 10 mil for offense, who is deciding how much for QB vs WR vs line
• Is there a General Manager now officially doing the coordination of what players the Coach wants vs the one that 1951 goes out to get signed? Who is prioritizing the signings… UT Staff or 1951?

Just some of the random questions in my head that I do not have answers to, maybe Spyre can call me and give me the answers!

 

[Sackett]

I am one who also likes to think things through and be prepared for different situations etc. So, I have to point out, he has not actually signed with UT... yet.

 

[SayNoToJorts]

I am one who also likes to think things through and be prepared for different situations etc. So, I have to point out, he has not actually signed with UT... yet.

Word on the street is he inked an $8M contract to make appearances in Knoxville through his junior year which means more IMO than signing with UT

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Word on the street is he inked an $8M contract to make appearances in Knoxville through his junior year which means more IMO than signing with UT

Is an LOI really needed if a kid signs a properly worded NIL?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

First, I want to say I am more of a strategist and enjoying understanding where things are going instead of worrying about current execution because I believe you are successful by figuring out where things are going before others do. Hence why I am posting this for your thoughts.

Now that UT has signed Nico everyone from players, fans and coaches are assuming that Tennessee signed him with the benefit of an $8.35 million NIL deal. This has changed college football forever. We must remember though that this game was started by SCOTUS and the first play of the game was by Saban himself and upped by the Texas QB transfer NIL and lineman payment announcements. With all of that said the question is how the sausage gets made moving forward.

Here are a few questions I have in my mind:

Portal

• Depending on how the contract reads, A player may not be as quick to enter the portal if he cannot sign NIL at his new school(co-op) because of the NIL at his old school.
• Of course, I am assuming the Co-op and players may at some time feel the contract is not working out for both and will allow the contract to be cancelled so that roster spots can be opened up and kids can leave

PWO

• Is there any reason for a kid to sign a LOI anymore if he is signed to NIL contract? Why not just PWO?
• Do the scholarship numbers even mean anything anymore? Why not 100 NIL PWO(s)?
• Is this why UT had so many PWO(s) this year?

Players already on roster

• How do you convince a kid like Tayven Jackson to stay if the other QB is signed to 8 mil? Can you talk him into staying or do you have to sign him to an NIL? What will it take to sign a QB in 2024 to sit the bench for maybe 2 years?
• Are the Co-Ops going to step up and give some cash to players already on the roster to keep them from transferring?

Future Recruits – This is where it gets interesting

• If everyone in the world assumes that Nico got 8.35 mil, how much do you think Kasper/Tate think they should get?
• How much do you think OL/DL think they should get; the bar was set high for a QB so how will that translate to other positions?

Team General Manager – Spyre has $30 mil a year for all Vol Sports let’s say 15 mil is for football, how does that get spent?

• Are there smoke signals or coded messages being traded between coaching staff and 1951 or does the NCAA not care anymore about rules kind of like the basketball referees in NCAA don’t care about what the basketball rulebook says.
• Who is deciding to spend x% of the 15 football mil for offense vs defense? Of the maybe 10 mil for offense, who is deciding how much for QB vs WR vs line
• Is there a General Manager now officially doing the coordination of what players the Coach wants vs the one that 1951 goes out to get signed? Who is prioritizing the signings… UT Staff or 1951?

Just some of the random questions in my head that I do not have answers to, maybe Spyre can call me and give me the answers!

Really like the points you've made, and appreciate the questions you're asking. Here are my thoughts on several of them:

Portal -- the portal isn't going anywhere. But the threat it has recently come to pose to roster stability will dissipate as more and more of the two-deep on many teams' rosters have NIL contracts binding them over multiple years. A decade from now, perhaps the most common use of the portal will be by players without an NIL riding the bench who look to either (a) get playing time elsewhere or (b) land an NIL contract of their own in another place. In other words, it won't feel like nearly so much of a problem to the losing teams.

PWO -- hugely strong points you made here. It is quite possible scholarship limits might go the way of the dodo bird...only to be replaced by roster size limits. Look for the NCAA to take up the question of limiting rosters to 85 or 100 players in an effort to keep one dominant team from denying talent to others. It's the only way I can think of that the NCAA has left to address the issue.

Players already on roster-- this is a very temporary issue. It will work itself out within a few years. There's always a transition period, to anything new. These concerns fit that category.

Future Recruits -- I mentioned this earlier here or in another thread: with an annual NIL contract pay pool of ~$30m, the spread could work out this way: $2m/yr to the franchise player (usually QB) ... $1m/yr to another dozen or so top talents (5-stars, mostly, at any position) ... and $300k/yr for another 40 or so players. That totals about 50-55 on the roster who are getting really nice paydays for playing college ball. If that's about right, guys like Kasper and Tate could expect to pull in between $1.2m and $4m over a four-year contract.

Team General Manager -- super interesting questions. Have no idea what the answers might be. One would assume there has to be some communication between the head coach, the AD, and Spyre on recruiting needs and values. But that is only an assumption. Just as curious as you to see how it shakes out.

 

[Sackett]

I am one who also likes to think things through and be prepared for different situations etc. So, I have to point out, he has not actually signed with UT... yet.

Yes, but a signed nil can't be directly tied to the school. Also, if he has signed the nil, that is not him signed with the University.
It is unlikely he would back out of eventuallysigning with TN, but he could. A nil can not legally tie the individual to the University. Theoretically a nil could follow an athlete to another University. It is about the athletes name, image and likeness. That goes where ever he goes.
It is unlikely since the nil is pretty much an exclusive, unofficial, *wink wink... recruiting tool.
None the less, Nico has not actually signed with the University of Tennessee, yet.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Yes, but a signed nil can't be directly tied to the school. Also, if he has signed the nil, that is not him signed with the University.
It is unlikely he would back out of eventually signing with TN, but he could. A nil can not legally tie the individual to the University. Theoretically a nil could follow an athlete to another University. It is about the athletes name, image and likeness. That goes where ever he goes.
It is unlikely since the nil is pretty much an exclusive, unofficial, *wink wink... recruiting tool.
None the less, Nico has not actually signed with the University of Tennessee, yet.

An NIL contract can not legally tie an athlete to a university. True and correct.

But an NIL can practically tie an athlete to a physical location. One that happens to be a college town. With only one major university.

How? By scheduling contract-specified events and other attendance requirements at a frequency that makes it impossible for the athlete to live and play football anywhere else.

To be more plain...let's say you, Sackett, just signed an NIL deal with Spyre. Contractually, you're required to attend a performance review every Tuesday evening at 6:30 pm at Spyre's offices in Knoxville, year-round. Every Thursday afternoon during the off-season, you are obligated to participate in a 45-minute meet-and-greet with Spyre donors (who are paying the $$ to enable your and others' contracts), also in Knoxville. Every Sunday morning during the football season, you are required to attend a memorabilia-signing session. Again in Knoxville. And so on.

Between going to classes, going to practices and other team meetings and development sessions, you barely have time to fit the Spyre commitments into your schedule, living right there in town. No way you would be able to do it all living in any other college town. Simply not possible, not even anywhere close like Nashville, Ashville or Blacksburg. Just isn't enough time.

So go where you like to school. But fit all these Knoxville commitments into your already-busy schedule. Right?



p.s. There are a few interesting cases where this would not, in fact, work. UCLA vs USC? Duke vs UNC vs NC State? A Spyre style contract would not narrow down the choices to a certainty in Los Angeles or Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill. But it sure works for Knoxville.

 

[Sackett]

An NIL contract can not legally tie an athlete to a university. True and correct.

But an NIL can practically tie an athlete to a physical location. One that happens to be a college town. With only one major university.

How? By scheduling contract-specified events and other attendance requirements at a frequency that makes it impossible for the athlete to live and play football anywhere else.

To be more plain...let's say you, Sackett, just signed an NIL deal with Spyre. Contractually, you're required to attend a performance review every Tuesday evening at 6:30 pm at Spyre's offices in Knoxville, year-round. Every Thursday afternoon during the off-season, you are obligated to participate in a 45-minute meet-and-greet with Spyre donors (who are paying the $$ to enable your and others' contracts), also in Knoxville. Every Sunday morning during the football season, you are required to attend a memorabilia-signing session. Again in Knoxville. And so on.

Between going to classes, going to practices and other team meetings and development sessions, you barely have time to fit the Spyre commitments into your schedule, living right there in town. No way you would be able to do it all living in any other college town. Simply not possible, not even anywhere close like Nashville, Ashville or Blacksburg. Just isn't enough time.

So go where you like to school. But fit all these Knoxville commitments into your already-busy schedule. Right?



p.s. There are a few interesting cases where this would not, in fact, work. UCLA vs USC? Duke vs UNC vs NC State? A Spyre style contract would not narrow down the choices to a certainty in Los Angeles or Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill. But it sure works for Knoxville.

Yep, I agree with what you said. It is meant to tie someone to an area/school, but it is not suppose to tie the person to a school... Then everyone winks several times... including the NCAA LOL. But, theoretically, as you pointed out, an athlete could sign with someone else or even transfer. I am glad that is VERY unlikely in Knoxville.

The original poster did say "Now that UT has signed Nico". So my original post was pointing out that is not factual. He did not sign with UT yet. He signed a NIL.

 

[JRich]

Great post, IMO. Good points and questions.

I would add to the PWO section, "Do they even have to attend class or make passing grades?"

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Yep, I agree with what you said. It is meant to tie someone to an area/school, but it is not suppose to tie the person to a school... Then everyone winks several times... including the NCAA LOL. But, theoretically, as you pointed out, an athlete could sign with someone else or even transfer. I am glad that is VERY unlikely in Knoxville.

The original poster did say "Now that UT has signed Nico". So my original post was pointing out that is not factual. He did not sign with UT yet. He signed a NIL.

That’s is part of my original tongue in cheek comments,,,is an LOI really needed if the NIL is written properly and the kid signed his LOI somewhere else he has just passed on the ability to make any NIL money. For a 5 star they would not pass up the NIL $$s to sign an LOI somewhere else.

 

[guido4198]

Great topic. VFL-82-JP has some interesting responses. Here's my take on some of them:
Portal...it won't take a decade for your prediction, more like NEXT YEAR.
PWO...BINGO. Scholarships have little meaning to players collecting huge NIL payoffs so I have to agree, it will be roster limits and sooner rather than later. And NCAA Football takes another step to formalizing it's status as the NFL's "Minor League"..without a penny of NFL money being spent. SWEEEEET ( if you're an NFL owner).
Players already on roster...As pointed out.... VERY temporary issue. Future rosters will be "the best team money can buy". VFL's, etc. are going to become part of the quaint history of College Football.

 

[kcvols1]

Is an LOI really needed if a kid signs a properly worded NIL?

It is, because the NIL deal can’t be structured as an inducement to attend or remain at the University.

 

[sona]

I see NIL deals as a way for people to shuttle money into their team in the hope that it results in wins and that's fine. Big NIL deals are simply "we want to win and willing to pay for it" money. All good, but it's definitely a "nod and a wink" transaction. There isn't enough marketing value in a single player to be worth 8m in a city like Knoxville.

Y'all think Jason Farris is going to let a player yell over him on the radio to sell some trucks?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I see NIL deals as a way for people to shuttle money into their team in the hope that it results in wins and that's fine. Big NIL deals are simply "we want to win and willing to pay for it" money. All good, but it's definitely a "nod and a wink" transaction. There isn't enough marketing value in a single player to be worth 8m in a city like Knoxville.

Y'all think Jason Farris is going to let a player yell over him on the radio to sell some trucks?

Look at "value" more broadly.

You're kinda stuck on "marketing value" as a measure of a person's ability to influence consumers to buy some physical commodity through an advertisement campaign.

Instead, consider the college athlete himself as the commodity in demand. He is the thing being sold. His signature turns a $20 jersey or a $30 football into a $1,000 donation to Spyre. His attendance at a meet & greet with fans turns a low-cost social gathering into a million-dollar fund raising event.

NIL-contracted players don't have to out-yell some huckster on local radio. They're in a completely different market, selling a completely different thing.

And yes, there's enough potential there to justify seven-figure contracts.**

That's how much we in the Western world are pumping into entertainment these days.



** Every home game weekend, Volunteer football impacts the Knoxville area to the tune of some $42 million (source: Vols football has big economic impact on Knoxville, Tennessee). You and I, the fans attending the game, are forking out all that. We can certainly pitch in another 10% or so to Spyre to be passed along to the athletes ($4m per home game * 8 home games a year = $32m, which happens to be Spyre's desired annual total NIL contract outlay).

 

[sona]

Look at "value" more broadly.

You're kinda stuck on "marketing value" as a measure of a person's ability to influence consumers to buy some physical commodity through an advertisement campaign.

Instead, consider the college athlete himself as the commodity in demand. He is the thing being sold. His signature turns a $20 jersey or a $30 football into a $1,000 donation to Spyre. His attendance at a meet & greet with fans turns a low-cost social gathering into a million-dollar fund raising event.

NIL-contracted players don't have to out-yell some huckster on local radio. They're in a completely different market, selling a completely different thing.

And yes, there's enough potential there to justify seven-figure contracts.**

That's how much we in the Western world are pumping into entertainment these days.



** Every home game weekend, Volunteer football impacts the Knoxville area to the tune of some $42 million (source: Vols football has big economic impact on Knoxville, Tennessee). You and I, the fans attending the game, are forking out all that. We can certainly pitch in another 10% or so to Spyre to be passed along to the athletes ($4m per home game * 8 home games a year = $32m, which happens to be Spyre's desired annual total NIL contract outlay).

You are probably right. Either way, I see it as a way to buy players and hopefully win