How Much Does CDD's Record Bother You?

#1
Brianchevy

Brianchevy

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#1
I posted this earlier on another topic, but apparently some language caused the thread to be deleted... I'll try again.

I've looked at a deeper level into the Dooley 4-8 season at LaTech. here's what I found;

LTAnalysis.jpg


There were 4 games that LT was SUPPOSED to lose. What I mean by that is Boise, Auburn, LSU and Navy went a combined 41-13 and 3 of those 4 were on the road. The Green highlights were losses when the AD signed the contract.

let's look at the OTHER games on the schedule. The games in pink were WINS when the AD signed the contract, those teams were HORRIBLE and they were all home games. Bottom dwellers in the conference. LT DID win all those games.

So far he's won the ones he was supposed to and lost the ones he was supposed to. Now let's look at the remaining 4 games. 3 of those games were Nevada, Idaho and Fresno. All three of those teams were 8-5. Sadly LT lost all of those games but 2 of them could have gone either way.

The final remaining game is the disturbing and unexplainable one. AT UTAH STATE. USU finished 4-8, jumped out to an early lead and held on to stun LT. This one is the unexplainable loss. But we as Vol fans have UCLA which this year is the unexplainable loss. HOW THE HELL DID THAT JUST HAPPEN? Well, upon further inspection, we don't know too much about Dooley, but we do know that for the most part he does what he's supposed to do and loses where he's expected to lose. Far from the 4-8 story you'd first read, but also perhaps not the miracle worker LT had hoped for.

I'm warming to coach D, and this analysis tells me not to be too harsh on his coaching record.
 
#2
#2
That does make me feel a tad better about his record. Just wondering...but did he lose many players from the year before (seniors graduating, transfers, etc.)? I was just wondering why there was such a drop off in records from one year to the next. Also have you done any analysis on his 8-4 season? I'd be curious to see what teams he won and lost to that season as well. Did he ever achieve a big upset during his tenure as LT head coach?
 
#3
#3
Brianchevy said:
I posted this earlier on another topic, but apparently some language caused the thread to be deleted... I'll try again.

I've looked at a deeper level into the Dooley 4-8 season at LaTech. here's what I found;

LTAnalysis.jpg


There were 4 games that LT was SUPPOSED to lose. What I mean by that is Boise, Auburn, LSU and Navy went a combined 41-13 and 3 of those 4 were on the road. The Green highlights were losses when the AD signed the contract.

let's look at the OTHER games on the schedule. The games in pink were WINS when the AD signed the contract, those teams were HORRIBLE and they were all home games. Bottom dwellers in the conference. LT DID win all those games.

So far he's won the ones he was supposed to and lost the ones he was supposed to. Now let's look at the remaining 4 games. 3 of those games were Nevada, Idaho and Fresno. All three of those teams were 8-5. Sadly LT lost all of those games but 2 of them could have gone either way.

The final remaining game is the disturbing and unexplainable one. AT UTAH STATE. USU finished 4-8, jumped out to an early lead and held on to stun LT. This one is the unexplainable loss. But we as Vol fans have UCLA which this year is the unexplainable loss. HOW THE HELL DID THAT JUST HAPPEN? Well, upon further inspection, we don't know too much about Dooley, but we do know that for the most part he does what he's supposed to do and loses where he's expected to lose. Far from the 4-8 story you'd first read, but also perhaps not the miracle worker LT had hoped for.

I'm warming to coach D, and this analysis tells me not to be too harsh on his coaching record.
Click to expand...

Yeah and its La Tech and they dont get big time recurits there. I think Dooley done a pretty good job with what he had. A sports talk in La where he was coaching at on espn said on the sports talk show 104.5 the zone in Nasgville said Dooley was working with dbs at wide rec because everyone was hurt
 
#5
#5
Good thread. I'm glad you laid everything out and explained this to some of these people that have not done their research and are knocking Dooley. I think he is a good coach and I think he was a good hire. We need to at least give him a chance before we decide he is going to fail.
 
#6
#6
His team is in the worst conference for a team on this side of the map. Look at his record at home vs. his record when he has to travel 1,000 miles for a road game. Not defending him, but we know how we have performed of late when we have to get on a plane for more than 4 hours.

Ask Les Miles if this guy can coach? Nevermind, who cares what he thinks :)
 
#7
#7
One thing that bothers me (on a theoretical level) is that year three should be when your first recruiting class is making a splash. They should be juniors or redshirt sophomores.
 
#8
#8
papatomany said:
One thing that bothers me (on a theoretical level) is that year three should be when your first recruiting class is making a splash. They should be juniors or redshirt sophomores.
Click to expand...

I agree with this somewhat. It probably is hard to recruit a bunch of kids from the South and get them excited about playing Utah St. and Nevada. But who wouldn't want to get to go to Hawaii twice in 4 years. Sign me up. :)
 
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#9
#9
interesting analysis.

so to spin it from an anti-CDD standpoint, it all seems to hinge on utah st, and CDD is a disaster waiting to happen because of that loss.

and majors went on to be a disaster after losing to rutgers, duke, ga tech, ky, and others.

and fulmer was a disaster in 97 and 98 after losing to memphis st in 96.

and satan went on to be a disaster after losing to LA Monroe in 07. they should have fired him on the spot -- what were the alabubbas thinking?
 
#10
#10
Ok, at your request, i've done the same analysis on the 2008 LT record. here are those results.

LT08.jpg


As you can see, the 2 expected losses did occur as predicted. However, look at all the pink lines!!! LaTech feasted on a REALLY WEAK 08 schedule. 5wins and 1 loss against inferior opponents (with that surprise loss to Army). But then we you look at teams with equal like records and strength, LT went 3-2 in those games.

so overall, LT played in a weak conference and did well, losing to 1 equal opponent, 1 inferior opponent and the 2 big boys.

So, Dooley's 2 years appear to be products of the schedule in both cases I would say the LT team was similiar in strength, the only difference between 8-5 and 4-8 was the opposition.
 
#12
#12
Brianchevy said:
So, Dooley's 2 years appear to be products of the schedule in both cases I would say the LT team was similiar in strength, the only difference between 8-5 and 4-8 was the opposition.
Click to expand...

the opposition was a big factor, but it has been reported that the injury factor was huge last year also. 6 starters lost to injury, and 18 freshman/sophomores starting as a result.
 
#13
#13
BrierVol61 said:
so he didnt beat anyone with a winning record?
Click to expand...

Doesn't appear so. WOW! I can't believe I missed that obvious point..

I really do think we'll be OK in time guys.. Next year will hurt but that would have anyway under coach X. 2011 needs to be our 'year'.... Let's save the recruiting class and go from there.

I just found that 4-8 wasn't as bad as it sounds.
 
#14
#14
If people have to go to such great lengths to justify the hire, it is a good chance the hire was not so great to begin with.
 
#15
#15
Let me say up front: I am 100% behind and pulling for our new coach. I think he brings some class and integrity to this program that are exactly what we need in the current climate. I like his reume (learning under Saban) and his pedigree (learning under his dad). I hope that, given time, he can get us headed in the right direction.

The one thing that keeps nagging at me is his losing record at La. Tech. He did take them to a bowl win a year ago, but his overall record is nothing to be excited about. It this misleading (did he have La.Tech on the rise despite the record), or does the record indicate he might be over his head in the SEC, especially given the coaches he's got to go against?
 
#16
#16
GmanTN said:
If people have to go to such great lengths to justify the hire, it is a good chance the hire was not so great to begin with.
Click to expand...

Ain't trying to justify SH%$, just trying to keep from slitting my wrists on where our program is today. I'm an engineer, data analysis doesn't lie. Time will tell...
 
#17
#17
maybe i've missed something, but the recurring argument that i've seen against CDD is his record. 4-8 or 17-20, take your pick. not much more being said beyond that.

brianchevy has done a good job of showing that there can be more to it than just the numbers.

otherwise, bill battle would be a superstar based on his 10-1 season.
 
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#20
#20
The record is immaterial to me. Whether he was 17-20 or 30-12, he'd still basically be a nondescript coach from La Tech whose hire I am holding my breath about.
 
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#23
#23
The only record I care about is 0-0 right now. This is the thing on which I will base my opinions.
 
#24
#24
GAVol said:
The record is immaterial to me. Whether he was 17-20 or 30-12, he's still basically be a nondescript coach from La Tech whose hire I am holding my breath about.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess it's hard to tell how a coach from a smaller conference will do when he gets to the SEC. I say we cheer like crazy for him and the team...and when we win the SEC let's all send hallmark cards to CLK telling him how much we "miss" him :p
 
#25
#25
It bothers me a lot. The WAC is a horrible conference with the exception of Boise, and an SEC worthy coach should have been able to win games against the level of competition he faced.
 
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