How many points scored is "good offense" & how many points given up is "good defense"?

#1
37620VOL

37620VOL

Barely-Known Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2007
Messages
7,124
Likes
13,829
#1
My current theory is points per possession. Over 3 points per possession is good offense, and under 2 PPP is good defense. This is just my theory.
How do you judge our offensive and defensive performance?


Other crap I find interesting:
1. This is a really cool site for points per drive data, they adjust for starting field position and remove garbage drives: https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-ppd
2. In 2021 we scored 2.9 PPP on offense (Good Enough) and gave up 2.5 PPP on defense (Not Good Enough).
3. In 2022 the numbers are boosted by Akron and Ball St, but we are at 4 PPP on offense and 1.6 on defense.
4. Based on my math, the offense was 2.4 PPP against Pitt (Bad) and 4.22 against UF (Awesome).
5. The defense was 1.9 PPP against Pitt (Very Good) and 3.3 against UF (Very Bad).
6. We are averaging about 12 possessions per game in 2022, which feels low. 12 is roughly the average number of possessions in an NCAA football game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OptimisticFan, snake, SycloneJoe and 5 others
#2
#2
"Good offense" is scoring more points than the other team. "Good defense " is giving up less points than the other team. Hope that clears it up. :)

Obviously I'm joking, but really that's a statistical question that has a majorly subjective component to it. Kind of like what defines a rivalry and what doesn't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EZE, Stephen Gray, youcancallmeAl and 5 others
#3
#3
I've never before considered this metric. Points per possession (achieved or allowed) is an interesting way to measure what is good.
My gut reaction is 30-40 points per game achieved and 20+/- points per game allowed are both good ranges. If the ave number of possession per game is 12, my gut jives with the numbers you've offered.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seattle Hillbilly and 37620VOL
#7
#7
All of these, as well as the ones not listed in the highlight but discussed in the Bleacher Report article averaged between 40+ to 50+ points per game.

Ranking the Best College Football Offenses Since 2000
  • Texas Longhorns (2005) 8 of 10.
  • Oklahoma Sooners (2008) 7 of 10. ...
  • Florida Gators (2008) 6 of 10. ...
  • Auburn Tigers (2010) 5 of 10. ...
  • Florida State Seminoles (2013) 4 of 10. ...
  • Alabama Crimson Tide (2020) 3 of 10. ...
  • Oregon Ducks (2010) 2 of 10. ...
  • Miami Hurricanes (2001) 1 of 10. ...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 37620VOL
#8
#8
The answer to the OP question is simple.
How many points scored is "good offense"
Any number of points that is more than the opposing team's total.
& how many points given up is "good defense"?
Any number of points that is less than our team's total.

I just love helping my fellow Vols fans.
 
  • Like
Reactions: swampfoxfan, pimo1 and gnm53108
#9
#9
37620VOL said:
My current theory is points per possession. Over 3 points per possession is good offense, and under 2 PPP is good defense. This is just my theory.
How do you judge our offensive and defensive performance?


Other crap I find interesting:
1. This is a really cool site for points per drive data, they adjust for starting field position and remove garbage drives: BCF Toys - 2021 Points Per Drive
2. In 2021 we scored 2.9 PPP on offense (Good Enough) and gave up 2.5 PPP on defense (Not Good Enough).
3. In 2022 the numbers are boosted by Akron and Ball St, but we are at 4 PPP on offense and 1.6 on defense.
4. Based on my math, the offense was 2.4 PPP against Pitt (Bad) and 4.22 against UF (Awesome).
5. The defense was 1.9 PPP against Pitt (Very Good) and 3.3 against UF (Very Bad).
6. We are averaging about 12 possessions per game in 2022, which feels low. 12 is roughly the average number of possessions in an NCAA football game.
Click to expand...
I like it. Great stat for seeing through fast vs slow game play.

So if both teams are slow and plodding on offense like Kentucky, and an average drive for each team lasts 7.5 minutes, that means as few as 4 offensive drives per team the whole game. But if one team is average 4 ppp and the other just 2 ppp, that's a final score of 16 to 8. Remember that Bama-LSU game a few years ago that ended 9-6? Yeah, like that. Heh.

Meanwhile, if both teams are speed-demons, like perhaps a Vols-Ole Miss match (and Ole Miss doesn't bring out the fainting goats), and the average drive lasts just 2.5 minutes, that's 12 possessions per team. So the team that scores 4 ppp beats the team with just 2 ppp by a score of 48 to 24.

These scores all sound realistic, which means I think your metrics are spot-on. Maybe tweak "good offense" up to 4 ppp rather than 3, because having 12 possessions and only coming away with 36 points seems low to me. Definitely holding the other fella to 2 ppp is a decent definition of good defense.

Then again, if your team can score 5 ppp, a defense that only allows 4 ppp is good enough. Know what I mean?

So rather than define "good" and "bad" for offense and defense separately, you could instead define "Good" for the team as a whole as an offense-to-defense ppp differential of 1 point or greater. If your team can average 5 ppp, then giving up 4 ppp isn't bad. If your offense can only generate 3 ppp, your defense needs to be good enough to hold the other fella to 2 ppp.

And really, that's what "breaking serve" is all about: lowering the other guy's ppp by stealing possessions from him before he can get to the end zone.

I really like what you're on to here, there's room to do a whole lot with it.

Thanks!
 
  • Like
Reactions: nalliszing, McDad, 37620VOL and 1 other person
#11
#11
Turnovers play a role in PPP. You could have a team going up and down the field for 500 yards of offense but turn it over multiple times and only score 21 points. One could make the case Tennessee would have scored at least 45 points without turnovers to Florida. Same could be said for the Pitt game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OptimisticFan and 37620VOL
#13
#13
None of this matters but what is on the scoreboard. You either win or lose. I prefer to win even if it 2-0 Vols. Each and every match up has a different outcome. The goal this week is 5-0 who gives a damn if it is O/ D or special teams score more than the other team
 
#14
#14
Interesting metric. Haven't thought of that before. I wonder what time of possession does to this metric? If you possess the ball long enough on each drive (7+minutes), but only score 2-3 times plus perhaps 2-3 field goals - you'll probably win a great deal of the time. Maybe this is a defensive mindset I have - in that strong defenses win games (or at least they used too).
 
  • Like
Reactions: McDad and 37620VOL
#17
#17
Excellent question. Bottom line is win and that’s all that matters. I’ve found it interesting that IF a team wins 31-24 nothing is said against the winning team’s defense and perhaps even gets complimented by the media. However, if a team is leading by a TD and the defense gives up 10 points in the last quarter+ then it’s the DEFENSE that lost the game !!! 😁
 
#18
#18
Statistics in college football is a fools errand. The quality of opponents faced varies so widely that it will skew the numbers.
 
#19
#19
Points per possession with a small sample size isn’t always a good judge.

I say that because “limited” factors in “some” games won’t always happen………which lead to less or more points per.

In the Florida game they drive with the ball and Tennessee gets an interception or gets a fumble…………no points scored however that wouldn’t “really” be indicative of the D performance as a whole.

Could the D expect to get turnovers in red zones often?

Just my opinion but yards per game or even simply yards per play is a better judge……..for smaller sample sizes. You still got variables like long runs and passes and such but I think with the smaller sample size it relates better.

Also if your dominating you might want/need to still gain yards and run clock; however you don’t “need” to score……..while maybe you could.

Tennessee’s O is good
Tennessee’s passing D is not

Some of that is the nature of teams being down 2 and 3 scores or more to Tennessee (all but 1 team), much of that is…….there just not good (I think they can be better and we will see that at some point).
 
#20
#20
WoodsmanVol said:
The answer to the OP question is simple.
How many points scored is "good offense"
Any number of points that is more than the opposing team's total.
& how many points given up is "good defense"?
Any number of points that is less than our team's total.

I just love helping my fellow Vols fans.
Click to expand...

Um no. The first question is how many pints scored is considered a good offense right? Your answer of any total that’s more than the other teams total. Well that’s not exactly true. Let’s say we beat LSU 10-7. But LSU has more total offensive yards then we do? How would consider our offense to be good?

Same with question #2. Let’s take the UK game last year and this years Florida game. We won both however we gave up 612 yards against UK and 594 yards against UF. Taking those stats into consideration, how could you say that our defense was good in either game?

You can win games when either your offense or defense has a bad day.
 
#21
#21
lukeneyland said:
Statistics in college football is a fools errand. The quality of opponents faced varies so widely that it will skew the numbers.
Click to expand...

If stats are fools errands then how do you accurately gauge who is the best teams and who are the best players?
 
#24
#24
supersmo18 said:
"Good offense" is scoring more points than the other team. "Good defense " is giving up less points than the other team. Hope that clears it up. :)

Obviously I'm joking, but really that's a statistical question that has a majorly subjective component to it. Kind of like what defines a rivalry and what doesn't.
Click to expand...
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top