DiderotsGhost
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I'm as upset about the loss yesterday as everyone else, but too often, I think people lose sight of the big picture. The reason that the 10-9 loss to Florida hurt so much is because we're so far ahead of schedule and it felt like we should have won. Without the defensive staff molding this into a top-tier SEC defense, we wouldn't have even been in the game yesterday.
I get a bit annoyed reading some of the ridiculous comments here at VN. I saw someone compare Butch Jones to Ron Zook yesterday. Seriously? Zook took over the best program in the SEC (arguably best in the nation) and turned it into a mid-tier SEC program in spite of having more talent than any other program in the country. Butch Jones took over the 2nd worst program in the SEC (only Kentucky was worse from 2010 - 2012), that was left with little talent, and has us very competitive again two years later.
It's worthwhile to take a look at some of the best rebuilding jobs in college football history. There have been some quick turn-arounds, of course, but most of the time, those happened when the prior coach had been recruiting well, but coaching poorly. Urban Meyer at Florida, Nick Saban at Alabama, and Pete Carroll at USC all benefited from these types of situations. If you begin to look at programs that were in much worse shape, the turnarounds have typically taken 3 - 7 years. Here are a few great examples.
Jim Harbaugh, Stanford
Harbaugh inherited a Stanford team that had been run into the ground by the two previous coaching staffs. The program had one winning season in the prior five years, and finished 1-11 prior to Harbaugh taking over. It was one of the worst Pac-10 programs when Harbaugh took over. How did he fare?
Year 1: 4-8
Year 2: 5-7
Year 3: 8-5 (Sun Bowl loss)
Year 4: 12-1 (Orange Bowl victory)
Harbaugh's first two teams played very tough, but still had poor records. It really took till Year #4 to see a major breakthrough.
Bill Snyder, Kansas State
The amazing thing about Snyder is that he has turned K State around not once, but twice! How bad was K State when Snyder took over the first time? Here's a clue:
1984: 3-7-1
1985: 1-10
1986: 2-9
1987: 0-10-1
1988: 0-11
In the four years prior to Snyder taking over, K State won 3 games and lost 40. How did Snyder fare?
Year #1: 1-10
Year #2: 5-6
Year #3: 7-4
Year #4: 5-6
Year #5: 9-2-1
Year #6: 9-3
Snyder went on a run of winning 9 games or more in 10 seasons out of 13 from 1993 - 2005 (when he retired). Ron Prince then took over and went 7-6, 5-7, and 5-7. Snyder turnaround #2 went as follows:
Year #1: 6-6
Year #2: 7-6
Year #3: 10-3
Year #4: 11-2
Examining that, it took Snyder about 5 years to turn K State around the first time and 3 years the second time. The 2nd rebuilding job was much simpler than the first, however.
Barry Alvarez, Wisconsin
People tend to forget just how bad Wisconsin used to be before Alvarez took over.
1986: 3-9
1987: 3-8
1988: 1-10
1989: 2-9
Not quite as bad as the situation Snyder took over, but still pretty bad. Some of the numbers are similar to Dooley's time at UT. Wisconsin only won 3 Big 10 games from 1987 to 1989, close to the 4 SEC games Dooley won in his three years. Here was how the Alvarez turnaround proceeded:
Year #1: 1-10
Year #2: 5-6
Year #3: 5-6
Year #4: 10-1-1 (Rose Bowl victory)
Year #5: 7-4-1
Year #6: 4-5-2
Year #7: 8-5
From Year #7 onwards, Alvarez coached 10 seasons and won 8 games or more in 8 of those seasons, and 10+ games in 3 of those seasons. He won a total of 3 Rose Bowls, as well. All of this is particularly noteworthy, because Wisconsin in 1990 really had no more "storied" of a history than Mississippi State in 2014.
Overall, you could say it took about 4 years to get Wisconsin competitive again, and 7 years to become consistently competitive.
David Cutcliffe, Duke
One of the most recent great turnarounds was engineered by the coach we passed on: David Cutcliffe. Cutcliffe took over a Duke program that had gone 6-45 with only 3 conference wins under Ted Roof. How did the turnaround proceed?
Year #1: 4-8
Year #2: 5-7
Year #3: 3-9
Year #4: 3-9
Year #5: 6-7
Year #6: 10-4
It's still a work in progress, but it took 6 years for Cutcliffe to break through with Duke and 5 years to make a bowl game (a pretty big achievement for Duke).
Mark D'Antonio, Michigan State
How about one more recent turn-around. Unlike the other coaches on this list, Mark D'Antonio took over a squad that could probably be described more as "mediocre" and "uncompetitive in its conference", rather than a complete disaster. Here was how the John L. Smith years at MSU went:
2003: 8-5
2004: 5-7
2005: 5-6
2006: 4-8
MSU only won 3 conference games in his last two years at MSU (once again, similar to Dooley). D'Antonio slowly built the program into the power it has become:
Year #1: 7-6
Year #2: 9-4
Year #3: 6-7
Year #4: 11-2
From Year #4 onwards, D'Antonio is 46-13. In his four full seasons, he went 7-1, 7-1, 3-5, and 8-0 in the Big 10.
Overall, this is probably the situation most similar to the one Butch Jones inherited. It took D'Antonio about 4 years to make Michigan State consistently competitive again.
The Takeaway
None of this is to suggest that Butch Jones is the next Barry Alvarez, Jim Harbaugh, or Bill Snyder. Merely that coaches that have taken over bad or mediocre teams have typically taken awhile to see results.
The quick turnaround jobs have normally involved a coach taking over very talented players who underperformed due to poor coaching. Pete Carroll at USC is a great example. He went 11-2 in his second year, but he also had Carson Palmer and Troy Polamalu on that squad amongst others. And remember, that even at that, most of the USC fanbase hated the hire and wanted him fired after his first season (6-6).
The losses have been frustrating under Butch, but we have to put things in perspective. Butch took over an AWFUL team. This was the 2nd worst SEC club in 2013. It was not merely one bad fluke season. Dooley and Kiffin ran the program into the ground.
Here we are in Year #2 and we have gone from having one of the worst SEC defenses in 2013, to one of the best in 2015. We're still struggling on offense, where we were left with little offensive line talent, but even in spite of that major handicap, we've been competitive in every game this season! Even the 24 point loss to Oklahoma mostly resulted from a few bad turnovers (and a really bad, botched review).
I don't know how far that Butch can take us, but I do know that so far, his turnaround does look similar to the cultural transformations that took place under Snyder, Alvarez, D'Antonio, Cutcliffe, and other great coaches. And that's more important than whether we win individual games this year.
Two years ago, we expected to lose to Florida. Now, we're upset to be losing, and even if we're not there yet, it feels pretty good to be "let down" because we have "high expectations" again.
In spite of the losses, I'd still rate Butch Jones as a solid "9 out of 10" thus far. He's built the foundation for a turn-around, and it may take 3, 4, or even 5 years to see the results, but we're getting there. I'll still be upset by every loss, because I bleed orange, but I won't lose sight of the big picture either.
I get a bit annoyed reading some of the ridiculous comments here at VN. I saw someone compare Butch Jones to Ron Zook yesterday. Seriously? Zook took over the best program in the SEC (arguably best in the nation) and turned it into a mid-tier SEC program in spite of having more talent than any other program in the country. Butch Jones took over the 2nd worst program in the SEC (only Kentucky was worse from 2010 - 2012), that was left with little talent, and has us very competitive again two years later.
It's worthwhile to take a look at some of the best rebuilding jobs in college football history. There have been some quick turn-arounds, of course, but most of the time, those happened when the prior coach had been recruiting well, but coaching poorly. Urban Meyer at Florida, Nick Saban at Alabama, and Pete Carroll at USC all benefited from these types of situations. If you begin to look at programs that were in much worse shape, the turnarounds have typically taken 3 - 7 years. Here are a few great examples.
Jim Harbaugh, Stanford
Harbaugh inherited a Stanford team that had been run into the ground by the two previous coaching staffs. The program had one winning season in the prior five years, and finished 1-11 prior to Harbaugh taking over. It was one of the worst Pac-10 programs when Harbaugh took over. How did he fare?
Year 1: 4-8
Year 2: 5-7
Year 3: 8-5 (Sun Bowl loss)
Year 4: 12-1 (Orange Bowl victory)
Harbaugh's first two teams played very tough, but still had poor records. It really took till Year #4 to see a major breakthrough.
Bill Snyder, Kansas State
The amazing thing about Snyder is that he has turned K State around not once, but twice! How bad was K State when Snyder took over the first time? Here's a clue:
1984: 3-7-1
1985: 1-10
1986: 2-9
1987: 0-10-1
1988: 0-11
In the four years prior to Snyder taking over, K State won 3 games and lost 40. How did Snyder fare?
Year #1: 1-10
Year #2: 5-6
Year #3: 7-4
Year #4: 5-6
Year #5: 9-2-1
Year #6: 9-3
Snyder went on a run of winning 9 games or more in 10 seasons out of 13 from 1993 - 2005 (when he retired). Ron Prince then took over and went 7-6, 5-7, and 5-7. Snyder turnaround #2 went as follows:
Year #1: 6-6
Year #2: 7-6
Year #3: 10-3
Year #4: 11-2
Examining that, it took Snyder about 5 years to turn K State around the first time and 3 years the second time. The 2nd rebuilding job was much simpler than the first, however.
Barry Alvarez, Wisconsin
People tend to forget just how bad Wisconsin used to be before Alvarez took over.
1986: 3-9
1987: 3-8
1988: 1-10
1989: 2-9
Not quite as bad as the situation Snyder took over, but still pretty bad. Some of the numbers are similar to Dooley's time at UT. Wisconsin only won 3 Big 10 games from 1987 to 1989, close to the 4 SEC games Dooley won in his three years. Here was how the Alvarez turnaround proceeded:
Year #1: 1-10
Year #2: 5-6
Year #3: 5-6
Year #4: 10-1-1 (Rose Bowl victory)
Year #5: 7-4-1
Year #6: 4-5-2
Year #7: 8-5
From Year #7 onwards, Alvarez coached 10 seasons and won 8 games or more in 8 of those seasons, and 10+ games in 3 of those seasons. He won a total of 3 Rose Bowls, as well. All of this is particularly noteworthy, because Wisconsin in 1990 really had no more "storied" of a history than Mississippi State in 2014.
Overall, you could say it took about 4 years to get Wisconsin competitive again, and 7 years to become consistently competitive.
David Cutcliffe, Duke
One of the most recent great turnarounds was engineered by the coach we passed on: David Cutcliffe. Cutcliffe took over a Duke program that had gone 6-45 with only 3 conference wins under Ted Roof. How did the turnaround proceed?
Year #1: 4-8
Year #2: 5-7
Year #3: 3-9
Year #4: 3-9
Year #5: 6-7
Year #6: 10-4
It's still a work in progress, but it took 6 years for Cutcliffe to break through with Duke and 5 years to make a bowl game (a pretty big achievement for Duke).
Mark D'Antonio, Michigan State
How about one more recent turn-around. Unlike the other coaches on this list, Mark D'Antonio took over a squad that could probably be described more as "mediocre" and "uncompetitive in its conference", rather than a complete disaster. Here was how the John L. Smith years at MSU went:
2003: 8-5
2004: 5-7
2005: 5-6
2006: 4-8
MSU only won 3 conference games in his last two years at MSU (once again, similar to Dooley). D'Antonio slowly built the program into the power it has become:
Year #1: 7-6
Year #2: 9-4
Year #3: 6-7
Year #4: 11-2
From Year #4 onwards, D'Antonio is 46-13. In his four full seasons, he went 7-1, 7-1, 3-5, and 8-0 in the Big 10.
Overall, this is probably the situation most similar to the one Butch Jones inherited. It took D'Antonio about 4 years to make Michigan State consistently competitive again.
The Takeaway
None of this is to suggest that Butch Jones is the next Barry Alvarez, Jim Harbaugh, or Bill Snyder. Merely that coaches that have taken over bad or mediocre teams have typically taken awhile to see results.
The quick turnaround jobs have normally involved a coach taking over very talented players who underperformed due to poor coaching. Pete Carroll at USC is a great example. He went 11-2 in his second year, but he also had Carson Palmer and Troy Polamalu on that squad amongst others. And remember, that even at that, most of the USC fanbase hated the hire and wanted him fired after his first season (6-6).
The losses have been frustrating under Butch, but we have to put things in perspective. Butch took over an AWFUL team. This was the 2nd worst SEC club in 2013. It was not merely one bad fluke season. Dooley and Kiffin ran the program into the ground.
Here we are in Year #2 and we have gone from having one of the worst SEC defenses in 2013, to one of the best in 2015. We're still struggling on offense, where we were left with little offensive line talent, but even in spite of that major handicap, we've been competitive in every game this season! Even the 24 point loss to Oklahoma mostly resulted from a few bad turnovers (and a really bad, botched review).
I don't know how far that Butch can take us, but I do know that so far, his turnaround does look similar to the cultural transformations that took place under Snyder, Alvarez, D'Antonio, Cutcliffe, and other great coaches. And that's more important than whether we win individual games this year.
Two years ago, we expected to lose to Florida. Now, we're upset to be losing, and even if we're not there yet, it feels pretty good to be "let down" because we have "high expectations" again.
In spite of the losses, I'd still rate Butch Jones as a solid "9 out of 10" thus far. He's built the foundation for a turn-around, and it may take 3, 4, or even 5 years to see the results, but we're getting there. I'll still be upset by every loss, because I bleed orange, but I won't lose sight of the big picture either.
